1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been running weakly this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 1498 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1290.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.86% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.24%. On April 29th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 85.90, unchanged from yesterday and hitting a historic low for the cycle, a decrease of 63.58% from the highest point of 235.84 on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1300-1450 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1400-1600 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1434 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1408 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81% compared to the same period last year, which was 30.64%.
Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with the overall weak performance of upstream raw material soda ash in March. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4160 yuan/ton, and the DMF market as a whole rose by 1.16% in April. Currently, the supply and demand in the DMF market are balanced, and the upward space is limited.
2、 Market analysis
Operating rate: In April, the overall operating rate of the DMF industry was 65%, a decrease of 5% compared to the previous month. There was an increase in equipment maintenance in Shandong, Henan and other places. In terms of demand, downstream terminal demand was weak, and the operating rate was 60%. In terms of agricultural demand, spring plowing and stocking have ended, and the procurement rate has decreased. Export prices have declined, and Southeast Asian market quotations have fallen.
Cost side: The raw material methanol quotation is running weakly, and the DMF cost side lacks favorable support, with normal shipments and average inventory.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in May, with prices maintaining their current trend. In May, some companies reported maintenance news, which will help alleviate inventory pressure.

The domestic fluorite price trend declined in April, with an average price of 3712.5 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 1.66% from the beginning price of 3775 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.02%.
Supply side: Some manufacturers have started production, and the supply of fluorite has increased

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. However, as the temperature rises, northern enterprises are gradually starting production, and the supply of fluorite from on-site enterprises has increased, resulting in a decline in the fluorite market in April.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable
In April, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid declined, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 11500-12000 yuan/ton. Some downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. They are not actively purchasing raw fluorite, and recently some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have seen a decline in prices. This news has affected the downward trend of fluorite prices.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of purchasing at high prices is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up in April is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The refrigerant market trend is temporarily stable, while the fluorite market trend is declining.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, in some areas, the lack of active fluorite procurement has led to an increase in inventory. In addition, downstream hydrofluoric acid prices have fallen, and there is a serious resistance to high priced fluorite. Hydrofluorite enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and demand has not actually increased. Overall, the fluorite market price is prone to decline but difficult to rise in the short term.

This week, the overall price of polyester filament has shown a downward trend. As we enter the weekend, manufacturers are increasingly reluctant to sell at low prices, and local discounts have narrowed. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 27th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6300-6500 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7500-8000 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Since mid April, the polyester industry has ushered in a new round of plant shutdown and maintenance, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has shown a slight downward trend, gradually falling from 95.39% in early April to 92.88%. However, the polyester filament industry has shown strong resilience, with an overall operating rate of over 90% and a stable capacity utilization rate of around 94%. Although some facilities have been shut down, the overall production capacity of the industry is huge, and the market supply is still sufficient. In this context, enterprises are adopting price reduction and promotion strategies to compete for limited market share, attempting to stimulate sales through price advantages, reflecting the severe situation of oversupply in the current polyester market.
On the demand side: Although downstream industries have seen some degree of recovery in operating rates after the holiday, the overall level is still relatively low. As of Friday, the operating rates of loading, weaving, and printing and dyeing in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions were only 70%, 65%, and 71% respectively, which intuitively reveals the weak trend of the downstream textile industry. Affected by sluggish market demand, downstream textile enterprises have significantly reduced their order volume, resulting in a severe contraction in the demand for polyester filament procurement. At present, the procurement strategy of enterprises is highly cautious, mainly focusing on meeting urgent needs and restocking, and large-scale hoarding behavior is rare. This cautious purchasing attitude directly leads to a sustained downturn in the demand side of the polyester filament market, making it difficult to form strong support for prices.
Cost side: PTA and ethylene glycol, as the core raw materials for polyester filament production, have a significant impact on the cost of polyester filament due to their price trends. Recently, the PTA market has experienced frequent price fluctuations and lacks clear directional guidance; The price of ethylene glycol remained relatively stable without significant fluctuations. Overall, the raw material market is in a period of fluctuation and adjustment, which has failed to provide solid cost support for the price of polyester filament. The weak performance on the cost side has led to a lack of upward momentum in the pricing of polyester filament, further exacerbating the weak market situation.
International trade: The uncertainty of the international trade environment, especially the issue of tariffs, has brought huge challenges to China’s textile exports. As an important export destination for Chinese textiles, the US market has become cautious about importing Chinese textiles due to tariff issues. Textile enterprises are facing the dilemma of highly uncertain future order volumes, so they are naturally more cautious when purchasing raw materials such as polyester filament. This cautious sentiment has spread within the industry, further suppressing the market demand for polyester filament and exacerbating the already sluggish domestic market.
Overall, the polyester industry is currently facing multiple challenges, including sustained supply pressure, weak demand recovery, limited cost support, and a complex and ever-changing international trade environment. Business Society believes that in the short term, the price of polyester filament may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and in the future, it is necessary to focus on the trend of crude oil, the pace of terminal order recovery, and enterprise differentiation strategies.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 829.2 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 822 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 2.24%. On April 24th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 795 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 43.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 32.94% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 770-880 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 880-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). Caustic soda causes weak operation, with sufficient supply from caustic soda enterprises and average downstream demand, resulting in a weak operating market for caustic soda prices.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak in the operating market, and the downstream demand in China has been average, with no positive support. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has been weak and stabilizing since mid April. On April 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 683 yuan/ton. On April 21st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 686 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.49%.

Supply reduction, hydrogen peroxide market stabilizing
Since mid April, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has been average, and some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in supply pressure. The price of hydrogen peroxide has remained weak and stable, with the average domestic market price falling to around 680 yuan/ton and a price increase of 10-20 yuan/ton. The hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded, with improved market transactions and a slight increase in prices.
Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that at the end of April, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry increased, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply decreased. It is expected that the market will rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of TDI in the domestic market has been continuously declining recently. Currently, the price of domestically produced TDI products is around 10000-10400 yuan/ton, while the price of Shanghai products is around 10500-10600 yuan/ton. The market has sufficient spot supply, but downstream demand continues to be poor. With an oversupply situation, the market atmosphere is pessimistic and there is a lack of trading volume. The news is bleak and lacks positive support, so it is expected that the TDI market will remain weak in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there was a slight rebound in the price of lithium carbonate in mid April. As of the 14th of April, the average price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 70933 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.1% from the beginning of the month at 73966 yuan/ton and a decrease of 39.27% from the same period last year at 116800 yuan/ton; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China is 69333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37% from the beginning of the month at 72500 yuan/ton and a decrease of 36.27% from the same period last year at 108800 yuan/ton.

Low price selling of old inventory in the field
The inventory of the entire lithium battery industry chain increased by 2900 tons to 129000 tons compared to last week, with a significant increase in inventory at smelters to 51000 tons and downstream material factories to 39700 tons. Some traders sold off low-quality old inventory at prices lower than 300-500 yuan/ton for new goods, and some February battery grade lithium carbonate transaction prices even fell below 68000 yuan/ton, stimulating material factories to replenish inventory at low prices.
Tariff policies affect terminal shipments
The new round of mutual tariffs between China and the United States involves lithium battery cathode materials, with an 8% increase in export costs for ternary materials and a 5% increase for lithium iron phosphate materials, which may suppress overseas orders in the second quarter. According to estimates, tariff adjustments may lead to a reduction of 120000 tons in the annual export volume of lithium batteries, corresponding to a decrease of 18000 tons in demand for lithium carbonate.
The fundamental situation of oversupply remains unchanged
As production enterprises resume work and production, the social inventory of lithium carbonate continues to accumulate. Although some lithium salt factories with high costs have reduced production to varying degrees, the reduction is relatively limited. Domestic lithium carbonate production still maintains a high level of operation, and downstream demand growth has slightly slowed down. The pattern of excess lithium carbonate is difficult to change.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the lithium carbonate market is currently in a weak equilibrium state, and the short-term rebound is constrained by inventory pressure and weak demand. Prices will not experience a significant rebound, and it is expected to continue to bottom out and fluctuate. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

Analysis: This week (4.7-11), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 5.93%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 200-300 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, agricultural demand procurement will slow down, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. However, supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north will hover or tighten supply with low prices. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders. Industrial demand will follow suit. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, with price range fluctuations being the main trend.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in March first fell and then rose, with prices falling overall. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2387.50 yuan/ton on March 31 and 2545.00 yuan/ton on March 1, with a monthly decline of 6.19%.

Cost wise: The overall trend of international oil prices in March has declined. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the US oil sanctions against Russia will also be relaxed, and international oil prices will fall due to this impact.

Supply side: In early March, the shipment of refined petroleum coke was poor, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. Multiple parties mainly focused on purchasing for essential needs, which limited support for the petroleum coke market and led to a continuous decline in petroleum coke prices; In mid March, the transaction of petroleum coke in the local refining industry was good, with prices continuing to rise. Refinery petroleum coke shipments were still acceptable, and downstream carbon enterprises had good purchasing enthusiasm, which supported the petroleum coke industry; At the end of March, the shipment of petroleum coke from underground refineries was still acceptable, with prices fluctuating, mainly affected by changes in petroleum coke indicators from some refineries. Recently, imported petroleum coke has been gradually entering the port for storage, mainly consisting of medium and high sulfur petroleum coke. Traders are actively shipping, and the speed of port petroleum coke shipments is relatively fast.

On the demand side: In March, some silicon companies in certain regions experienced production shutdowns and reductions, while also resuming production and adding new capacity, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply of metallic silicon in the field. There is a certain supply pressure on the overall supply side of silicon metal, and the downstream demand for silicon metal is weak. The recovery of the demand side is slow, and the overall supply and demand transmission is hindered. The overall market confidence is poor, and the demand for petroleum coke in the silicon industry still exists.

In March, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke fluctuated and fell, mainly affected by the rise and fall of petroleum coke prices. The price of calcined coke fluctuated. Currently, the overall supply of calcined coke market is sufficient, and coupled with limited downstream demand, calcined coke is mainly on the sidelines.

In March, the comprehensive PMI of the domestic aluminum processing industry rose to 61.6% and entered the expansion zone. Policy dividends and peak season effects drove the recovery of aluminum consumption, and social inventories continued to decrease. As of March 31, 2025, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 806000 tons, which is 77000 tons lower than the social inventory of 883000 tons on February 27. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: Currently, the benchmark price for pre baked anode procurement at a certain aluminum plant in Shandong province has risen in April. A new round of procurement will begin downstream in early April, and it is expected that petroleum coke will have an upward trend in the near future.