According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose slightly this week (May 12 to May 19). The spot market price in East China was 16325 yuan/ton on May 1 and 16400 yuan/ton on May 15, up 0.46%.

In terms of manganese ore: The decline in manganese ore prices has slowed down this week, and downstream restocking inquiries have increased, leading to an improvement in manganese ore transactions; With the gradual sale of low-priced goods in the early stage, the market power gradually concentrates, and the source of low-priced goods decreases, showing a trend of stopping the decline in prices. As of May 19th, Tianjin Port’s semi carbonated carbon dioxide costs 31-31.5 yuan/ton, Australia’s 40 40.5 yuan/ton, and Gabon’s 37.3 yuan/ton; Qinzhou Port Macao Block is priced at 40.5 yuan/ton, Gabon is priced at 37 yuan/ton, and South African semi carbonated carbon is priced at 30.8 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for 5 consecutive months since December 2022, and have slightly increased after temporarily stabilizing for 4 consecutive weeks.

In this cycle, the market price of electrolytic manganese rose slightly, with the mainstream price of 14900-15000 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton higher than the low market price last week. In the first half of this week, boosted by the expected tightening of supply, market trading slightly improved. Later, as the news was digested and downstream demand was weak, market trading declined in the later stage. There has been no significant change in supply and demand. The overall downstream demand is operating at a low level, with a strong game mentality between the supply and demand sides, and a strong market wait-and-see atmosphere. The recent stable performance of steel recruitment has also boosted market sentiment. The FOB price ranges from $2150 to $2200 per ton, with a slight increase of $30 per ton. Overall, Business Society predicts that the market is expected to have a tight supply and a strong reluctance to sell, but downstream demand is limited, making it difficult to have significant upward potential. It is expected that the trend will be mainly stable, moderate, and strong in the future, and we are waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

This week, the bidding process for steel mills has been slow, with some of the silicon and manganese bidding prices for steel mills that had previously been offered continuously lowering. Without obvious positive market factors to support, in order to stimulate transactions, some holding companies have increased their willingness to sell at lower prices. However, downstream purchasing customers’ inquiry activity has not shown a significant improvement, and the market’s psychological price level is not consistent. Under the game, the spot price of silicon and manganese continues to weaken slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quotation for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6800-6900 yuan/ton on May 19th, with an average market price of 6883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% compared to the beginning of the week.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in April 2023 was approximately 20600.3 tons, a decrease of 38.42% compared to the previous month; The total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in April 2023 is approximately 47%

Price trend

Last week, the domestic POM market was negative, with a significant drop in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the average factory price of domestic POM was 12950.00 yuan/ton, a 2.63% decrease from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the price of formaldehyde market in Shandong has fluctuated and dropped. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent market of formaldehyde mainly fluctuates slightly, and the market fell last week. The price of raw material methanol fluctuated slightly, with moderate support for formaldehyde. Downstream panel factories started smoothly, with moderate demand support on the market. Market trading sentiment was poor, and the formaldehyde market declined.

On the supply side:

The high operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has decreased, with some enterprises undergoing maintenance in the early stage, and the industry load has decreased to about 79%. The situation of high load has eased narrowly, but most enterprises’ inventory has not decreased but increased, and processing profits have gradually decreased.

In terms of demand:

At present, POM terminal enterprises have weak stocking enthusiasm, low operating rates, poor consumption release, and limited impact on spot prices. Traders lack confidence and are forced to lower prices to complete tasks. Buyers tend to buy up rather than down, with a wait-and-see mentality. The actual order is light and tends towards a single negotiation.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the POM market fell again. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is still acceptable, but there are multiple companies resuming work in the later stage, with expectations of rising supply. In addition, the industry’s inventory pressure continues to increase, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. The demand side enterprises just need to replenish less, and some downstream operating rates are low, resulting in few actual transactions. Based on various bearish and bearish factors, it is predicted that the POM market may continue to decline in the short term.

The focus of MIBK market rebounded during the week. According to the market analysis system of the business community, as of May 19, the market price in East China was 12100-12400 yuan/ton, up 500-700 yuan/ton during the week, up 5.75%

The decline in operating rates has boosted the market’s upward trend.

During the week, the industry’s operating rate declined, and companies had a positive attitude, driving up prices.

Long term decline, low inventory of manufacturers, and limited trading resources for traders.

The MIBK market has entered a downward trend since early February, bottoming out in May and falling to 11500-11600 yuan/ton. Manufacturers are clearing inventory at low prices, reducing pressure, and traders are also actively shipping. The mentality of enterprises has improved, and prices have been pushed up.

The terminal just needs to follow up, and the procurement pace has not significantly improved, but the market has widened and there is a mentality of speculation in the market.

During the week, the MIBK market was on the rise, with a tight supply of spot resources. Sellers still had a competitive attitude, and previously, traders had high inventory costs for imported resources and had little intention of lowering prices. However, terminal demand remained the main focus, with limited future growth. The focus is on downstream procurement.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of hydrochloric acid in China has significantly decreased this week, with the average market price dropping from 195.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 175.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 10.26%. Weekend prices fell 41.67% year-on-year. On May 15th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 46.05, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 156.12% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support, weakened downstream procurement

From the supply side, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The price of downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 1788.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1781.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.42%. Weekend prices fell by 21.49% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell sharply, from 795.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 692.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 12.89%. Overall, upstream support is insufficient and downstream demand is weakening.

Future Market Forecast

In the middle and last ten days of May, the market price of hydrochloric acid dropped mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with insufficient cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that hydrochloric acid has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

Aluminum fluoride prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 15th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 9825 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% compared to the price of 9775 yuan/ton on May 7th. Cost increases and demand rebounds, with aluminum fluoride prices fluctuating and rising this week.

Raw material prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of fluorite was 3137.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40% compared to May 7th, when the price of fluorite was 3125 yuan/ton; As of May 15th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10114.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on May 7th, which was 10128.57 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite has fluctuated and increased, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased. The cost of aluminum fluoride has increased, and the support for the increase in aluminum fluoride still exists.

Ice crystal prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of cryolite was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32% compared to the price of cryolite on May 7th, which was 7825 yuan/ton. The price of cryolite has increased, downstream demand has rebounded, and demand for aluminum fluoride has increased, providing greater support for the rise in aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry of the Business Society believe that this week, the raw material fluorite fluctuated and increased, the price of hydrofluoric acid stabilized, and the cost of fluoride aluminum raw materials fluctuated and increased; The price of cryolite has increased, and the demand for aluminum fluoride has rebounded. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen, and demand has rebounded. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will slightly increase in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the industrial grade first class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 5375 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.92% and a month on month decrease of 3.59%. The current price has decreased by 26.87% compared to last year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market fluctuated and fell. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent potassium nitrate market has fluctuated slightly, and the market has continued to decline this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, and ports are still arriving at new ships, causing prices to decline. The potassium nitrate market is trading poorly, with poor sales and a weak decline in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5200-5700 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, there has been insufficient demand in the international potassium chloride market, and prices have shown a downward trend. The domestic spot market for potassium chloride has average trading volume, and the price of potassium chloride has slightly fluctuated and decreased. It is expected that the potassium chloride market will consolidate at a high level in the future.

Recently, there has been a large supply of potassium chloride, and the market has been declining, with poor cost support. Downstream purchases remain in demand, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term. The long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 263750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.65% compared to Monday’s price.

The domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market rose this week (5.8-5.11). Recently, the upstream lithium carbonate market has continued to rise, gradually increasing support for the lithium hydroxide market. In addition, downstream demand has improved, and the market has a positive attitude towards price. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market has risen.

As for upstream lithium carbonate, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the market price of lithium carbonate has risen recently. On May 10, the reference price of lithium carbonate industrial grade was 209000.00, up 20.11% from May 1 (174000.00); On May 10th, the reference price for lithium carbonate battery grade was 235000.00, an increase of 17.5% compared to May 1st (200000.00).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society believe that the recent strong cost support in the lithium hydroxide market has boosted the mindset of businesses, and the supply and demand support is still acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may operate stronger, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

After the May Day holiday, the price trend of domestic fluorite has increased. As of the 6th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3125 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the price of 3075 yuan/ton on the 1st. However, the tight spot supply of fluorite has not improved, and the price of fluorite is “outstanding”.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting mining, shortage of fluorite in stock

Recently, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises is relatively low, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and the operation of fluorite mines is severely insufficient. In addition, in some areas, non-metallic mine accidents have occurred, and the requirements of environmental protection and emergency management departments have become stricter. The difficulty of mine operation has increased, and domestic fluorite raw materials are tightening. The operation of fluorite flotation devices is limited, and the price trend of fluorite has slightly increased in May.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is declining, and the refrigerant market is not good

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has declined, with the mainstream price negotiated by various regions in China ranging from 10000 to 10400 yuan/ton. Recently, some units are still in shutdown, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is weak. As a result, the market trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined. Recently, the price of fluorite has risen, and downstream demand is poor. The dual impact has led to serious losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises.

The market of downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has slightly declined, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, which has led to a slight decrease in the price of domestic refrigerant R22. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and inventory is within a reasonable range. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is declining. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the actual transaction situation is light. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000-25500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. The demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, and the operating rate is less than 30%, Due to the scarcity of upstream raw material procurement, the growth of the raw material fluorite market has been somewhat suppressed.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been growing in demand in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite anode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy and semiconductor, the fluorite market has been supported to some extent.

Future market forecast: In the near future, the supply of raw material fluorite ore is tight, fluorite production is limited, and spot supply is tight. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is lower, and the demand of refrigerant industry is not significantly improved. Under the long short game, Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the fluorite price will remain temporarily stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.60% from the beginning of the month’s price of 20833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.04% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% from the beginning of the month’s price of 25500.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 4.83% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In April, the domestic price of chloroform continued to decline, with a sharp decline of 11.21% in the month as a whole, and the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded slightly from the bottom, with an overall increase of 4.81% in the month. In general, the price of R22 upstream raw materials continued to decline, and under the pressure of raw material costs, the domestic price of R22 continued to operate under pressure in April. Supported by the reduction of domestic R22 production quota in 2023 and the demand in the peak season, the overall decline space of domestic R22 market price in April was limited.

In April, the domestic price of trichloroethylene continued to decline, with an overall significant drop of over 10% at the end of the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded slightly from the bottom, rising by 4.81% within the month. Overall, the upstream raw material cost price of R134a still showed a weak downward trend, and under cost suppression, the overall pressure on the domestic R134a price in April was weak and adjusted.

In terms of raw materials, on the whole, although the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid rebounded from the bottom in April, the overall price was still at a low level, and the cost of raw materials continued to fluctuate at a low level. In the future, the price of domestic refrigerant market could not keep rising.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to decline, and under cost suppression, it is expected that the domestic prices of R22 and R134a will decline to varying degrees in May. Supported by low inventory and the gradual recovery of demand for hot refrigerants due to weather conditions, the overall price decline space for domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a in May is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 27th, the average price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 6800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.23% compared to the price on April 1st.

The acrylic acid market slightly declined in April. In the early days, the price of raw material propylene was narrowed, with some support from the cost side and an increase in supply side operating rates. However, downstream enterprises have low operating loads, and some are just in need of buying on dips. The market mentality is cautious, and the price center of acrylic acid has declined. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell, with limited cost impact. Some factories on the supply side have completed maintenance, and downstream procurement is mainly in demand. The market trading atmosphere is average, and acrylic acid companies’ prices are mainly stable, while some companies’ prices are adjusted. In the latter half of the year, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and sorted out, with little impact on the cost side. Downstream stores were prepared according to demand before festivals, and market negotiations were mild and orderly. The price center of acrylic acid was mainly stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 26th, the reference price for propylene was 7130.60, a decrease of 0.11% compared to April 1st (7138.60).

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support is still acceptable, with downstream inquiries and purchases mainly in demand. The market atmosphere is average, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market may be on the sidelines for consolidation in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.