Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been plagued by bullish and bearish trends, with various spot prices showing mixed fluctuations. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of June 16th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.18% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the market price of Caprolactam fell slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. The spot supply of Caprolactam market is tight, and the supply side is still supported. The downstream purchase intention is weak, and the purchase is on demand. It is expected that the narrow range of Caprolactam market will be dominated in the short term.

On the supply side:

In the near future, the overall load of PA6 production enterprises has remained relatively stable, operating with narrow fluctuations below 70%. This week, the industry’s load increased narrowly, and the market supply remained stable. There is a risk of inventory position continuing to rise, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is average, with factory pricing under pressure.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated. The actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods. The overall atmosphere of stocking on site is cautious, with no improvement in the situation of new orders. Buyers are resistant to high priced sources, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the PA6 market has been fluctuating in a narrow range. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. The price of Caprolactam weakened, and the support of PA6 cost side fell back. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

This week (6.5-6.12), the market of chloroform was weak and declined. According to the data of the business society, as of June 12, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 2125 yuan/ton, down 4.49% from 2225 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw methanol fluctuates slightly, and the cost support of chloroform is weak; The replenishment of some downstream enterprises ended, and the demand for chloroform weakened again; Although some enterprises have shut down and reduced the burden of methane chloride devices, the overall supply side is still loose. Chloroform market fluctuated and fell back.

This week (5.29-6.5) saw slight fluctuations in the start of the methane chloride plant.

This week (6.5-6.12), the price of raw methanol was adjusted at a low level, and the cost support of chloroform was still weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 12th, the spot price of methanol was 2041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.35% from last Monday’s 2180 yuan/ton.

Short term replenishment orders have ended, coupled with the gradual end of the domestic refrigerant market peak season, some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises have temporarily stabilized their parking and maintenance prices. In the short term, chloroform will rise and fall back. In addition, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023, which will make it difficult to improve the demand for Chloromethane in the medium and long term.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of the business society, although the overall domestic demand support for chloroform is weak at present, and the cost level is low, it is expected that the chloroform market will be weak in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market continued to be low. From June 5th to 9th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2180 yuan/ton to 2075 yuan/ton. During the cycle, prices decreased by 4.82%, with a month on month decrease of 13.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.89%.

The domestic methanol market continues to decline, with coal prices falling and methanol production cost support weakening. Traditional demand has entered the off-season and demand is weak. At the same time, some methanol parking devices have recovered, and new investment devices such as Xuzhou Longxingtai and Jiyang New Energy have production plans in the near future. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient.

By the end of June 9, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had risen. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2045 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2055 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2013 yuan/ton. It closed at 2043 yuan/ton in the end of the day, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.10% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 1378258 lots, the position was 1746563 lots, and the daily increase was 114916 lots.

On the cost side, coal prices have weakened, but the inventory of enterprises is running at a low level, with little pressure. This provides some support for prices, and some northwest enterprises are still able to ship. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: a factory in East China has shut down, a unit in Henan has reduced its load, and the demand for dimethyl ether has decreased; Downstream chloride: reduced demand for chloride; Downstream formaldehyde: formaldehyde demand may decrease. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, maintenance of a set of devices in Hengxin High Tech, Shenhua Xilaifeng, and Heilongjiang; Guangxi Huayi, Jiuyuan Chemical, and Sinopec SVW units have reduced production; Pucheng Clean Energy, Xinjiang Guanghui, and Jinfeng Wenxi devices have been restored. The overall recovery exceeds the loss, so the capacity utilization rate has increased this week. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 8th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $299.00- $301.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 74.00-77.00 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 253.00-255.00 euros/ton, up 0.25 euros/ton.

According to future forecasts, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs continue to be weak. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to be weak.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 175.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 45.31% year-on-year. On June 4th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 46.05, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 156.12% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support, weakened downstream procurement

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride slightly decreased, dropping from 1782.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1768.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.77%. Weekend prices fell by 21.13% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 627.50 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price fell by 58.92% year-on-year. Overall, upstream support is insufficient and downstream demand is weakening.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late June, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with insufficient cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level. From May 29th to June 2nd (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2208 yuan/ton to 2191 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.75%, with a maximum amplitude of 2.19%, a month on month decrease of 9.56%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22%.

The domestic methanol market is in a weak state, with weakened support for methanol production costs, the recovery of Baofeng units, an increase in domestic supply, and a decrease in local formaldehyde load, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly.

As of the close on June 2nd, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2060 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2110 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2018 yuan/ton. It closed at 2089 yuan/ton in the end, an increase of 44 yuan/ton or 2.15% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 2461887, the position was 1922656, and the daily increase was 48624.

On the cost side, there is a clear contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The price of raw coal is mainly weak. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: The demand for dimethyl ether has slightly increased; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand or increase; Downstream formaldehyde: formaldehyde demand may weaken. The demand for methanol is mixed.

Supply side, device recovery. The overall recovery exceeds the loss, so the capacity utilization rate has increased this week. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 1st, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $307.00- $309.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 78.00-81.00 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 260.00-262.00 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

According to future forecasts, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs continue to be weak. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to be weak.

Price trend in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in May remained stable and increased. As of May 31st, the average market price in Henan Province was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the initial price of 7825 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%.

In May, the domestic cryolite market was observed and sorted out. During the month, the prices of cryolite enterprises remained stable and there were slight fluctuations. Some enterprises in Henan region slightly increased their prices based on their own shipment situation. The prices of raw materials continued to be high, and upstream cost support was good. The production of cryolite enterprises was under pressure, and the market quotation was stabilizing. The enthusiasm for downstream market entry on the demand side was average, and the demand for goods was followed up according to demand. The shipment of cryolite enterprises was acceptable, and the market situation was mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

Analysis of upstream and downstream market conditions

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market slightly increased in May, with low operating rates of mining enterprises and tight spot performance of fluorite. The price of fluorite remained high, while the demand side hydrofluoric acid market declined, which had a negative impact on the fluorite market. The price increase of fluorite was limited, and as of the end of the month, the average price of fluorite was 3143.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.24% compared to the beginning price of 3075.00 yuan/ton.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated widely in May, with an average price of 18290.00 yuan/ton in the East China market for domestic aluminum ingots at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.08% compared to the average price of 18490.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In May, there was a significant reduction in electrolytic aluminum inventory, resulting in poor end market consumption, while domestic aluminum production increased. Under the supply and demand game, the aluminum market fluctuated and operated.

Future Market Forecast

The equipment of the cryolite enterprise is operating normally, with tight raw materials and good cost support. The cryolite enterprise is actively shipping, and downstream demand is average. Purchasing in the market is mainly based on demand, with insufficient demand benefits. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the cryolite market will remain stagnant in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8350 yuan/ton on May 1, and the average price on May 30 was 8014 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4.02% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 8725 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 8107 yuan/ton on May 30th, with a decrease of 7.08% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9090 yuan/ton on May 1st, and the average price on May 30th was 8937 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.68% during the period.

The focus of polyethylene quotation in May continues to shift downwards. In May, petrochemical companies continuously lowered their prices, and traders had a poor mentality, leading them to lower their prices. There are many polyethylene parking inspections in China, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, with an increase in shutdown and maintenance devices. Although some factories are buying at low prices, the market demand boost is limited. In terms of pipes, the operating rate of enterprises has shown a downward trend, and market transactions are not good.

The second quarter is a concentrated period for device maintenance, and the domestic polyethylene supply pressure has eased. However, agricultural film is in the traditional off-season, with the focus of spot prices constantly shifting downwards and the demand side taking the lead. It is expected that polyethylene may be mainly reduced in a weak position.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic MTBE market fluctuates significantly. From May 1st to 29th, the price of MTBE remained at 7487 yuan/ton, with a flat increase or decrease of% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 5.10% and a year-on-year increase of 0.82%.

At the beginning of the month, after the May Day holiday, international crude oil prices fell broadly. Although multiple MTBE units were shut down for maintenance and resource supply decreased, demand was sluggish and the decline in the MTBE market intensified. In mid month, news was released last weekend that products such as isooctane, which are also used for blending oil, will be subject to consumption tax, promoting production enterprises to significantly increase their factory quotations. At the same time, MTBE saw a significant increase compared to other gasoline raw materials, while gasoline saw limited growth. As news gradually digested and terminals resisted high prices, manufacturers moderately increased their profit margins in the second half of the week, leading to a slight price correction. In the latter half of the month, as MTBE prices fell to a certain low point and downstream companies entered the market on dips, MTBE manufacturers’ profit margins slowed down, and MTBE growth was around 200-300 yuan/ton.

On the cost side, the debt problem of the United States remains unresolved. Recently, the oil market still has pressure from the macro side, but the supply and demand side is relatively good. First, the North American driving season is coming, and the demand for refined oil products is rising. Second, OPEC+production is expected to tighten. It is expected that the oil price will probably consolidate upward and recover lost ground. The domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market has been affected by the high level of market consolidation.

On the demand side, crude oil prices have fluctuated and decreased since May, which has affected the domestic refined oil market and put pressure on it. The gasoline market has declined, but the price of MTBE is on the high side. As businesses adjust the proportion of MTBE added to gasoline, demand for MTBE is limited. The demand side for MTBE is weak.

On the enterprise side, MTBE production continues to decline, with a positive impact on the supply side.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 26th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $26.5 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $976.49- $978.49 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $11/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1017.74- $1018.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $45.86 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $994.27-994.63 per ton (280.08-280.18 cents per gallon).

According to future forecasts, compared to other gasoline raw materials, MTBE prices are still relatively high, with end users maintaining strong demand and manufacturers increasing inventory. MTBE analysts from the business company believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 19000.00 yuan/ton, which was generally unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 17.14% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25166.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the beginning of the month price of 25333.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 18.9% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of May 26, the domestic chloroform price continued to decline in a weak way, falling 6.38% in the month, hydrofluoric acid price fell 2.5% in the month, and the cost of raw materials continued to be weak. Supported by the peak season, the overall price of enterprises was stable, and the domestic R22 market price was stable this week.

As of May 26th, the overall price of trichloroethylene in China remained relatively low and stable, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell by 2.50% during the month. The overall raw material cost was weak, and the lower cost had a certain inhibitory effect on the domestic R134a price. Supported by demand expectations, the company’s quotation this week was temporarily stable.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid continues to operate at the bottom, and the continuous low cost of raw materials will have a certain suppression on the domestic refrigerant prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to be weak, and under cost suppression, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will be under pressure in the short term, with overall stable to weak operation being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market this week has an upward focus. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Thursday was 20000 yuan/ton, and this Thursday was 20900 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 4.5% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market stopped falling and picked up, with the market price focus rising. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is still average, and the price of yellow phosphorus in the market is tentatively increasing. The cost pressure of yellow phosphorus manufacturers is relatively high, and the price is mainly high. We will not provide external quotations for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious. As of now, the mainstream market quotation is around 20800-21000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, the domestic phosphate ore market has been declining this week. As of May 19, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China last Thursday was 1066 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 1030 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 3.38% during the week. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is light, and the mentality of the industry is average. The overall domestic phosphate ore market is weak and declining, and the market focus is generally downward.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of coke this week was 1846 yuan/ton. The coke market is currently operating steadily, with some companies increasing their prices, but downstream companies have not responded yet. At present, the construction of coking enterprises has declined, and some enterprises have increased their reluctance to sell. Downstream steel mills have slightly recovered their procurement.

As for phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid market rose sharply this week. Last Thursday, the average price of phosphoric acid was 5890 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 5910 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 0.34%. At present, the demand in the phosphoric acid market is average, with phosphoric acid enterprises mainly operating at high prices, and market trading is still relatively light. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that currently, upstream phosphate rock prices are downward, coke prices are temporarily stable, and cost support is average. The downstream phosphoric acid market rebounded and increased, but market trading remained relatively light. Overall, the upstream and downstream markets are showing a cautious wait-and-see trend. It is expected that in the short term, yellow phosphorus prices will mainly increase, and attention will be paid to changes in the news.