Gold prices rose first and then fell in September

The price of precious metal gold rose in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot market price of gold on September 28, 2023 was 462.87 yuan/g, an increase from the spot market price of 462.84 yuan/g at the beginning of this month (September 1).

Silver prices fell by 0.89%

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average silver market price on September 28, 2023 was 5766 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the average silver market price of 5903.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (September 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices have become stronger.

Macro news surface

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday, the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index, rose 0.4% month on month in August, lower than the market’s expected 0.5%; Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE price index in August increased by 0.1% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.

However, as market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a long time continue to rise, the US dollar index has significantly risen, reducing the attractiveness of gold to investors. The international gold price in the US dollar has started to decline, while the domestic RMB gold price was relatively strong in the early stage, and has slightly declined today. At present, the premium level of domestic gold prices compared to international gold prices has set a record, reaching over $100 per ounce, while the average premium level in the past decade has been less than $6. Therefore, precious metal prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 22, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4333 yuan/ton. Compared to September 18 (referring to the price of dimethyl carbonate at 4300 yuan/ton), the price increased by 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.18-9.22), the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China has slightly increased. Entering this week, the overall news of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has been relatively calm, with the overall load switch maintenance being the main focus. Downstream procurement and stocking are mainly based on demand and quantity. At the beginning of the week, supported by the upward trend of raw materials and the good shipment situation of some Shandong factories, the price of dimethyl carbonate increased narrowly, with an increase of around 100 yuan/ton. However, the downstream demand side continued to purchase on demand, and the overall market remained stable and consolidated, As of September 21st, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4100-4300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the on-site supply of dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable, and the demand side of polycarbonate is generally stable. Other industries are stable, and the market is mainly consolidation. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic market for dimethyl carbonate will mostly be stable with small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of polyformaldehyde in Shandong have been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5462.50 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5412.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92%, a month on month decrease of 0.23%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.14%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise, driven by demand, and the methanol market continues to improve, with a significant increase in order volume. The market atmosphere is relatively high, and shipments are smooth. In terms of supply and demand, there have been breakthroughs in pre holiday stocking by netizens. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

Recently, the methanol market has been fluctuating and rising, and cost support is still acceptable. However, downstream demand is poor, and polyformaldehyde manufacturers are facing difficulties in shipping. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business company predict that prices may decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 19, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7120 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 7120 yuan/ton on September 13. The domestic thermal phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 19, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6983 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6983 yuan/ton on September 13. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market price remained stable this week. The price of raw material phosphate rock has increased, while the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has first decreased and then increased, providing positive cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, low enthusiasm, and temporarily stable operation of the phosphoric acid market. As of September 19th, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7300 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6350-7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, this week the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was first suppressed and then increased. At the beginning of the week, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus was average, with downstream procurement being priced down and being resistant to high-end prices, resulting in a downward shift in the focus of market transactions. Recently, the price of yellow phosphorus has started to rise, and downstream inquiries have increased. As of now, the market quotation is around 26000-26500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphorus ore, the domestic mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore market has seen an overall upward trend this week. The downstream demand for domestic phosphate ore is gradually recovering, and with demand boosting, the phosphate ore industry has a good mentality. The supply of mid to high-end grade ore in phosphate rock yards is tight, and spot circulation is tight. With the support of both supply and demand sides, the focus of the phosphate ore market has been constantly moving upwards in recent days.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society, the recent stable consolidation and operation of phosphoric acid is the main focus. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is pushing up, and cost support is strengthening. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and cautious wait-and-see is still the main focus. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will slightly adjust with the raw materials.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 18, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4300 yuan/ton. Compared to September 10, the price progress remained unchanged, and compared to August 18 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4433 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (9.10 to 9.18), the overall range of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has stabilized and operated. Recently, the overall news of dimethyl carbonate on the market has been relatively calm, with little adjustment in the supply and demand side. Downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is relatively flat, and the overall opening of pre holiday stocking is relatively slow. The market is in a stage of interval consolidation and operation. As of September 18th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is referenced around 4000 to 4300 yuan/ton, and the price of the higher end is referenced around 4500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is average, and the market is relatively stable. The slight decline in the raw material market provides general support for dimethyl carbonate, and new orders on the market are relatively cautious. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 15th, the cobalt price was 252600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94% compared to the cobalt price of 255000 yuan/ton on September 8th; The cobalt price increased by 0.88% compared to 250400 yuan/ton on September 1st. The supply of electrolytic cobalt is stable, and downstream demand for magnetic materials and high-temperature alloys is weak or even weakening. The growth of new energy vehicles is less than expected, and the demand for cobalt in the market is poor. International cobalt prices continue to decline, and cobalt prices have fluctuated and fallen this week.

International cobalt price decline

From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that in September, MB cobalt prices continued their decline in August, experiencing a significant fluctuation and decline. International cobalt prices fell, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market and increased pressure on domestic cobalt prices to decline.

Stable supply and poor demand in cobalt market

From the supply side perspective, the production of the smelting plant has maintained growth this week. Although the increase is mainly for preparation for delivery and storage, there is a large inventory in the trading sector, and the spot supply in the cobalt market is relatively stable. From the demand side, the demand for downstream magnetic materials and high-temperature alloys is weak or even weakening, and the short-term supply and demand relationship is still slightly surplus. The demand for new energy vehicles and mobile phones has rebounded less than expected, with poor demand for cobalt prices.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, international cobalt prices continued to decline in September, while the international cobalt market remained weak. The domestic cobalt market still has a slight oversupply of supply and demand, and the sustained rise in cobalt prices lacks support. Overall, the stable supply and demand in the cobalt market are less than expected, with insufficient support for the rise of cobalt prices. The cobalt price has hit a bottom of 250000 yuan, and there is limited room for the decline of cobalt prices. In the future, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate widely.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1140 yuan/ton on September 8th, and 1090 yuan/ton on September 14th. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 4.39%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell this week. The price of urea has fallen, negatively affecting the ammonium sulfate market. The international market for ammonium sulfate is poor, and domestic bidding prices have declined. Downstream cautious procurement is the main focus, and distributors are actively shipping, with a wait-and-see attitude in the industry. As of September 14th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 1050 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 1080-1140 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s ammonium sulfate market believe that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate price is weak and downward. Downstream just needs to purchase, market demand is average, and the focus of transaction is exploring. At present, there are no positive factors in the market, and it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be weak in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 13, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 13500 yuan/ton. Compared with September 8 (organic silicon DMC reference 13340 yuan/ton), the price increased by 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (9.8-9.13), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has shown a slight upward trend. Entering September, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has finally experienced an upward trend. With the upcoming Mid Autumn Festival and National Day, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC has improved, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm has increased. The overall order acceptance situation of organic silicon DMC factories is good, and the market situation is steadily upward driven by demand. As of September 13th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 13300-13700 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. The supply and demand transmission of organic silicon DMC has improved. The organic silicon DMC data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly operate steadily, with a strong trend. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic market for neopentyl glycol increased from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10033.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.08%. Weekend prices fell by 3.83% year-on-year. On September 12th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 49.64, an increase of 0.8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 52.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 15.31% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol has risen this week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9000.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.75%. Weekend prices increased by 14.41% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late September, the market trend of new pentanediol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. From September 4th to 11th, the average price of domestic BDO remained at 11642 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.58% month on month and 9.45% year on year. The maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the market supply has increased; However, the increase in demand downstream of the terminal is limited, the pressure on supply and demand increases, the intention of production enterprises to maintain prices continues, the negotiation game intensifies, and the overall market fluctuation is not significant.

On the supply side, the devices have gradually restarted, the industry’s operating rate has significantly increased, and the positive support on the supply side has weakened, exacerbating the cautious wait-and-see sentiment on the market. There are currently no planned changes to other devices. The supply side of BDO is mixed.

Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: With the improvement of calcium carbide arrival, downstream demand is gradually increasing. In September, there have been new and resumed production of calcium carbide furnaces, and there are expectations of a continuous increase in supply. Recently, there has been a significant increase in inventory in the calcium carbide market, and the decline has begun. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market has been experiencing high volatility recently. As of 15:00 on September 11th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2510 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been at a high level, and the cost side of BDO is relatively favorable.

On the demand side, except for the restart of maintenance equipment in the main PTMEG industry and the improvement of new production capacity, the performance of other downstream industries is average. And some downstream industries are in a state of loss, with poor transmission of cost pressure and weak acceptance of high prices. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, although entering the traditional peak season, the increase in demand downstream of the terminal is not significant, and the contradiction between supply and demand is intensifying. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and decline.