1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7483.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7750.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.56%, and the weekend price increased by 22.37% year-on-year. On November 20th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.34, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.74% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 30.61% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7203.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7198.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.07%. The weekend prices have dropped by 0.45% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, and cost support has weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, dropping from 10325.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10110.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.18%, and the weekend price has increased by 9.78% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late November may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The upstream propylene market has shown a downward trend over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from November 10 to November 17, 2023 increased by 0.99% to 6401.25 yuan/ton this weekend, compared to 6338.75 yuan/ton last weekend.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures plummeted on November 16th. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $72.90 per barrel, a decrease of $3.76 or 4.9%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 77.42 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 3.76 US dollars or 4.6%. The US crude oil inventory has significantly increased, and more importantly, weak economic data has exacerbated concerns about future demand. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the current logic of crude oil trading is still a supply-demand game, and the pressure of tight supply has eased as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not shown a worsening trend of expansion. At present, market attention is more focused on various economic data indicators, which will become a barometer of demand prospects. Recently, multiple data releases have shown that economic data from important regions in the West and Asia are biased towards weakness, which will further exacerbate bearish demand sentiment in the future. In the short term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, but the market still needs to pay attention to OPEC policy trends, which will limit the downward space of oil prices.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene and the listed price of Sinopec pure benzene will continue to be 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7653 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On November 13th, the price of pure benzene was 7675 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 17th), the price of pure benzene was 7750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64% compared to last week and an increase of 11.25% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market rose first and then fell this week. The overall strength of the styrene market was boosted by the positive news, and the pure benzene market rose slightly next week. Downstream inquiries were relatively positive, and market trading was good. The hydrogenation benzene market has been on the rise this week, with overall market prices slightly increasing by 150-200 yuan/ton.

This week, the pure benzene market slightly increased, with Sinopec’s listed price continuing to reach 7750 yuan/ton. The hydrogenation benzene market has slightly increased, with a current price of 7800 to 7850 yuan/ton in East China, and an increase of 150 to 200 yuan/ton within the week. In terms of supply and demand, coking enterprises started slightly higher this week, but the overall operating rate fluctuated around 75%, and the supply of crude benzene has been relatively stable in the near future. In terms of demand, as the hydrogenation benzene enterprises undergoing preliminary maintenance continue to operate, the overall demand for crude benzene from downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises is still good and the demand performance is good. Overall, the current overall strength of the industrial chain has boosted the prices of most commodities. However, with the recent increase in supply of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene, the market is slightly under pressure. Over the weekend, crude oil weakened again, which has a certain impact on market sentiment. In the future, market bearishness is expected to emerge, and the pure benzene industrial chain is expected to be under pressure in the future, with the market operating steadily and weakly.

Zinc prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 17th, the zinc price was 21388 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% compared to the zinc price of 21618 yuan/ton on November 10th. The zinc mine in Russia has been on fire, and the supply of zinc in the market has tightened. Zinc prices briefly rose from the 14th to the 15th, but demand in the zinc market remains weak, and both supply and demand in the zinc market are weak. Zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen this week.

Sudden fire at a zinc mine in Russia

A sudden fire in the Ozernoye mining and processing complex in Russia is expected to delay production. The complex produces 600000 tons of zinc ore annually, and zinc prices have risen after the fire. Zinc mines are facing the impact of grade decline and continuous disturbance from accidents, as well as the fact that closure is gradually increasing, and have long faced the problem of insufficient ore growth. The zinc mine fire in Russia has raised concerns about a decrease in zinc mine supply.

London Zinc Ingot Inventory Doubles

On November 16th, LME zinc ingot inventory was 133200 tons, with an increase of 65075 tons, accounting for 95.52% of the increase. Zinc ingot inventory increased, and zinc prices fell 2.54% to $2574 per ton in London overnight trading. Due to the arrival of a large amount of metal in warehouses, the inventory of zinc ingots in London futures market warehouses has nearly doubled, and the zinc market still has an oversupply.

Cautious sentiment spread during the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States

After a year, the two heads of state once again had face-to-face exchanges. However, during the meeting between the two heads of state, crude oil prices plummeted to a new low in April and the largest drop in January. Macromarket data was weak, market risks intensified, and the zinc market remained cautious. The market was under pressure, and the downward pressure on zinc prices increased.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the fire in Russia’s zinc mines has caused a brief rise in zinc prices, but the macro market is weak and the sustained rise in the zinc market lacks support. However, with a surge in zinc ingot inventory in London and the spread of market caution during the China US dollar summit, zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen. In the future, the China US dollar summit has released an important signal of stabilizing global expectations, which is beneficial for global economic development and is beneficial for the zinc market. Zinc prices may stabilize after a decline, but the weak supply and demand situation in the zinc market has not changed, and the support for zinc price increases is insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 14, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8100 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to early November. Compared with October 1 (propylene glycol reference price 8466), the price was reduced by 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.33%.

Entering November, the domestic propylene glycol market price has been hovering at a low level, resulting in a stalemate in supply and demand, and limited price fluctuations in the propylene glycol market. In terms of demand, currently, downstream demand for propylene glycol continues to be weak, and it is difficult for the demand side to bring significant benefits to the market. Enquiries for propylene glycol on the market are light, and new orders are limited. In terms of cost, the raw material epoxy propane market is weak, and the support for propylene glycol on the cost side is weak. In terms of supply, currently, due to insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, some devices in the propylene glycol field have delayed start-up and are still in a shutdown and maintenance state. However, the overall supply in the field is still slightly sufficient, and some factories have tight spot inventory. Therefore, the willingness to continue reducing production is not strong. In addition, the propylene glycol market is currently at a low level, and factories mainly maintain stable quotations. As of November 14th, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is based on around 7900-8100 yuan/ton, while the higher price is based on around 8300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the Future Market of Propylene Glycol

At present, the dimethyl carbonate market, which is co produced with propylene glycol, is also operating at a weak and low level. The comprehensive profit of propylene glycol is constantly decreasing, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood. The overall shipment of unsaturated resin factories downstream of the terminal is slow, and the transmission of propylene glycol to the terminal is slow. Currently, there are many bearish factors for propylene glycol, but due to the constraints of comprehensive profit, the market situation has limited room for further downward adjustment. In the short term, propylene glycol data analysts from Business Society believe that, The domestic propylene glycol market will mostly focus on weak adjustment and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in cost and supply and demand information.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black continued to decline in the second week of November. On November 13th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 10466 yuan/ton

Cost side: The price trend of coal tar has declined this week, with severe losses in downstream deep processing products. The operating rate of enterprises has significantly declined, and the market performance in various regions has differentiated. Some regions have already experienced a situation where the prices of coal tar and raw coal tar are inverted, and their willingness to purchase raw coal tar is relatively negative. There is a strong bearish atmosphere on the market. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar in the market is 4437 yuan/ton, and the trend of the coal tar market is relatively pessimistic. The support for the cost side of carbon black is weakened, and the price decline in the coal tar market is increasing. It is expected that the price of coal tar will be weak in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is not high. Although the operating situation of carbon black enterprises has declined, their profits are still good, and they have a certain demand for coal tar oil.

In terms of terminals, the downstream tire and rubber industry’s domestic market demand is weak and flat, with a small amount of replenishment mainly for raw material carbon black. Affected by the market’s tendency to buy up rather than down, the acceptance of carbon black is relatively negative, and the market has a strong bearish atmosphere. Inquiries into the market are mainly focused on price suppression, while the demand side remains in high demand.

Overall, the current carbon black market is operating in a weak and volatile manner, with downstream tire companies maintaining just in demand for goods, and the raw material end continues to weaken with moderate support. The bearish factors on the market are dominant, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate weakly in the short term. The future trend will focus on downstream demand.

The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the DBP price was 9537.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to the DBP price of 9500 yuan/ton on November 1st; The DBP price increased by 0.53% compared to 9487.50 yuan/ton on November 3rd. The raw material n-butanol rebounded and rose, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The cost was mixed, and downstream demand remained weak. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell.

The price of n-butanol rebounded and rose in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the price of n-butanol was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.12% compared to the price of 7466.67 yuan/ton on November 1st. In November, the n-butanol market experienced a slight rebound after a trough period. Downstream users’ small-scale stocking gave confidence to the n-butanol market. Subsequently, the overall n-butanol market continued to steadily decline, with some regions experiencing maintenance of n-butanol units and a decrease in n-butanol supply. In addition, the n-butanol market is currently operating at a relatively low level, with downstream markets seeking bargains to replenish goods and the demand side experiencing staged stocking. In November, n-butanol prices fluctuated and rose.

The market for raw material phthalic anhydride continued to decline in November

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on November 1st. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate of about 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is sufficient, and the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has increased, impacting the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and some phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reduced prices to promote sales, resulting in a continuous decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in terms of raw materials, the prices of n-butanol fluctuate and rise, while the prices of phthalic anhydride continue to decline, and the cost of DBP raw materials is mixed; In terms of demand, the plastic market is weak and the demand for plasticizer DBP is weak. Overall, raw materials are mixed, with insufficient cost support for plasticizers. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of yellow phosphorus in the domestic market has increased. Last Thursday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25960 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 26493.33 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 2.05% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic yellow phosphorus market prices have risen this week. The overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is still good, and due to the impact of power rationing policies in Yunnan, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan have suspended their quotations. The yellow phosphorus market in Sichuan has shown an upward trend, with strong reluctance from enterprises to sell and prices rising. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a wait-and-see attitude towards high priced sources. The purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the main focus is on just what is needed. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 26300-27000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed an upward trend this week. Last Thursday, the average price of phosphorus ore was 1024 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 1046 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 2.15%. At present, the supply in the phosphate ore field is still tight, downstream demand is stable, supply and demand transmission is smooth, and the overall market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is once again approaching high levels. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly operate in a stable, medium to strong manner.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the coke market in Shandong Port has slightly increased, with the quasi first level ex-warehouse price at around 2300-2350 yuan/ton and the first level ex-warehouse price at 2400-2450 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of the port market is acceptable, and the inventory of the two ports has slightly increased. The atmosphere of gathering at the port has improved compared to the previous period, and the market trading is slightly cold. The shipping cost remains temporarily stable, with 205 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port and 195 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port as of the 9th.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of phosphoric acid has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of phosphoric acid was 7140 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, it was 7160 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 0.28%. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable in the short term, and we will be watching the trend of raw materials.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current increase in upstream phosphate rock prices and a slight increase in the coke market provide strong cost support. Downstream demand is average, with primary demand being rigid and relatively resistant to high priced yellow phosphorus. Overall, it is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will remain stagnant and operate in the short term, with attention to changes in the news.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of domestic carbon black has slightly declined in November. On November 5th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11033 yuan/ton

Cost side: The coal tar market prices have started to decline this week, with differentiated market performance across different regions. Downstream deep processing products suffer severe losses, with a significant decline in enterprise operating rates. The willingness to purchase raw coal tar is relatively negative, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is average. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar in the market is 4750 yuan/ton. The trend of the coal tar market is relatively pessimistic, with weakened support for the cost side of carbon black. Although the operating situation of carbon black enterprises has declined, their profits are still good, and there is a certain demand for coal tar.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and currently the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is not high, resulting in a tight overall supply.

In terms of terminals, downstream tire companies have some raw material support this week, and their enthusiasm for purchasing goods is average. The domestic market demand for downstream tires and rubber industry is weak and flat, with a small amount of replenishment of raw material carbon black as the main focus. There is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market, with most inquiries entering the market mainly focused on price suppression, and the demand side still maintains strong demand.

Overall, the carbon black market is currently operating at a high level of volatility, with downstream tire companies maintaining just in need of goods, and the raw material end continues to weaken with moderate support. It is expected that the carbon black market will operate weakly in the short term, and future trends will focus on downstream demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 3, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7500 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7466 yuan/ton), the price increased by 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45%.

Looking back at October, the n-butanol market can be described as a “continuous decline”, with a decline of over 16% in October. In the first week of November, the decline in the n-butanol market has not stopped, and the focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong region continues to decline. On the 1st and 2nd, Shandong large factories successively lowered the price of n-butanol, with a reduction of 100-400 yuan/ton. On the 3rd, the market for n-butanol experienced a decline and then rebounded, with increased trading activity. The market price for n-butanol increased by a narrow range of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of the 3rd, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: On the first few days of the month, the main impact of the trend of the n-butanol market falling first and then rising is the release of the demand side, and the downstream is experiencing phased replenishment. The improvement in demand drives the market to recover and operate.

In terms of supply: Currently, the overall supply level of n-butanol on site is relatively stable, and there is little change in the adjustment of on-site construction compared to the previous period.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and the good downstream demand brings some confidence to the market. The phased stocking provides some positive support to the market. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market may steadily rebound and operate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the price of DOTP was 11270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93% compared to the price of 11610 yuan/ton on October 1. In October, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, while PTA prices rebounded after a sharp drop. The cost support for plasticizer DOTP was insufficient, and the price of DOTP fluctuated and fell in October.

PTA prices rebounded after a sharp drop in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on October 31st was 5915 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.81% compared to the price of 6213.64 yuan/ton on October 1st. The demand for “Silver Ten” is weak, the chemical fiber market is operating weakly, and the market trading atmosphere is average. PTA demand is poor, crude oil prices fluctuate and fall widely, PTA costs decrease, and PTA prices fluctuate and fall in October.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 31st was 12120 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the price of 12020 yuan/ton on October 1st, with an increase of 0.83%. The price of propylene fluctuated and fell, while the cost of isooctanol decreased. Downstream plasticizer companies did not start production enough, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In October, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.

The plastic market fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, during the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu”, the plastic market is soaring. In October, it took on the high position of the “Golden Nine”, but the market for plastic futures products quickly cooled down and failed to continue the upward trend, resulting in a situation where the “Silver Ten” is not silver, and the plastic industry is dominated by bearish sentiment. Downstream plastic enterprises have low willingness to stock up, lagging consumption follow-up, and weak market momentum. Under the influence of declining consumption and cost fluctuations, the plastic market has seen a significant decline in plastic prices. The downstream plastic market is declining, and the demand for plasticizers is insufficient, increasing the downward pressure on plasticizer DOTP.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in October, PTA prices fluctuated and fell, while isooctanol prices first rose and then fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreased; The plastic market has declined, downstream customers have poor purchasing enthusiasm, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP is weak. Overall, due to insufficient cost support and weak demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.