1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium was 3500 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium on December 26th was 3370 yuan/ton. The market price of ammonium phosphate fell by 3.71% this month.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium on December 1st was 4056 yuan/ton, and on December 26th, the reference average price of 64% diammonium was 4040 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell by 0.41% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate is weak and has fallen this month. In the first half of December, the price of ammonium phosphate stabilized and stabilized. The prices of raw materials fluctuate, and there is still support on the cost side. The market inquiries for ammonium phosphate decreased, and trading weakened. The factory’s pending orders are the main focus, and the market is steadily consolidating and operating. The purchasing atmosphere in the diammonium phosphate market has weakened, but the supply of goods remains tight, with manufacturers and distributors mainly offering high prices. In the second half of December, the focus of ammonium phosphate transactions declined. Downstream demand is weak, market inquiries have decreased, new transactions are limited, and many ammonium phosphate manufacturers have suspended their quotations. Although there is support from pending orders, as the volume of pending orders decreases, the later support gradually weakens. As of December 26th, the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3300-3400 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3300-3400 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The market quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3920-4100 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. This month, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight weak decline and then remained stable and consolidated. At the beginning of the month, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable overall, and the supply and demand news on the market was relatively calm. As the mid month stage approaches, downstream demand for phosphate ore has weakened, and some regions have a mediocre shipping pace. In the early stage, mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore by a narrow margin, while the price of 30% grade phosphate ore has decreased by about 20-30 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low prices on site has narrowed. At the end of the month, due to the overall tight supply of mid to high end grade phosphate ore, although downstream demand is weak, the phosphate ore market still shows a stable operation after a slight decline. As of December 26th, the domestic phosphate ore market price is based on around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

The raw material sulfur market saw domestic sulfur prices rise first and then fall this month. In the first half of this month, domestic sulfur prices increased. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally, the market supply of goods is stable, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and manufacturers are shipping smoothly. In the later part of this month, sulfur prices in East China fell, and terminal winter storage demand slowed down, with downstream demand being the main focus. Some companies have poor shipments and have lowered their quotes based on their own inventory situation. Towards the end of the month, sulfur prices rebounded and rose. As of December 26th, the reference price for domestic sulfur market is 1096.67 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s ammonium phosphate analyst believes that the price trend of ammonium phosphate has been weak and declining recently. The demand in the winter storage market is poor, with weak market transactions and relatively low trading volume for new orders. At present, there is no favorable situation in the market, and it is expected that the short-term price of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak and downward.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen this month. On December 1st, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5533 yuan/ton. On December 25th, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5433 yuan/ton. This month, the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased by 1.81%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin slightly decreased in December. In early December, the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased. The prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream demand procurement, there is no significant improvement on the demand side. Manufacturers and distributors are mainly observing and adjusting prices flexibly according to costs. In mid to late December, the price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable. The prices of raw materials fluctuate, with market fluctuations and average cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, limited market trading, and manufacturers and distributors mainly observe and stabilize prices. As of December 25th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is around 5600 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is around 5100-5400 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly ups and downs from September 25, 2023 to December 18, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic chlorinated paraffin cycle saw mixed ups and downs. There was a significant decline in December, with the largest decline of -1.81% in the week of December 4th.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has fluctuated this month, fluctuating with fluctuations in the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated and fallen this month. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and manufacturers are flexible in adjusting prices and shipping.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Chlorinated Paraffin, the market trend of raw material liquid wax has been improving recently, and the price of raw material liquid chlorine is weakening, resulting in a mix of rising and falling costs. Downstream demand performance is poor, with multi-dimensional support for essential procurement, average market trading, and stable pricing for enterprise shipments. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will stabilize and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 22, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, which remained stable overall compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 16.76% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 12.93% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of trichloromethane slightly increased, with a 2.5% increase during the week. The overall price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable and the upstream raw materials stabilized. In addition, the quota surplus of domestic R22 enterprises reached the bottom, and enterprises continued to raise prices. The domestic R22 market price continued to remain stable and move forward this week.

This week, the overall domestic price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, while upstream raw material prices remained stable. The domestic inventory of R134a was relatively low, and with the support of the sustained price support attitude of enterprises, the domestic R134a price continued to remain stable and move forward.

In terms of raw materials, the overall price of domestic hydrofluoric acid remains stable, which will support the continued stability of the domestic refrigerant market price.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society refrigerant analysts believe that raw material costs have stabilized, enterprise quotas have bottomed out, and market supply and demand are weak. In the short term, domestic refrigerant R22 and R134a market prices will continue to operate steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price in East China fell first and then rose in mid December. On December 20th, the average market price in East China was 16700 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 16700 yuan/ton on December 11th. The price increased by 0.40% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic TDI market has been fluctuating this cycle, with little price fluctuation. On the 11th, the market learned that the TDI devices of major factories in Xinjiang have restarted, and spot supply has increased. Business owners have a bearish mentality, and TDI quotations have been consolidated and declined; Afterwards, the market news remained quiet, with quiet trading on the exchange and stable trading by holders; On the 19th, the market learned that the restart of TDI devices in Shanghai’s major factories was delayed, causing the factories to close and temporarily not accept orders. The trading market showed an increasing intention to explore price increases, and the prices offered by holders slightly increased. Overall, demand is sluggish, supply side benefits are lacking, and the TDI market is weak and consolidating.

The upstream toluene price remains low, and the market situation is weak and volatile during the cycle. On December 20th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6510 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 6510 yuan/ton on December 11th. The international crude oil price fluctuates narrowly, with weak support for the cost of toluene. Downstream demand is in the off-season, market inquiries are weak, and support for toluene demand is weak. In addition, domestic toluene production continues to increase slightly and port inventory pressure continues, which has a negative impact on the supply side. The toluene market lacks support and the market trend is weak and consolidating.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that the mainstream devices on the market have not yet restarted, and TDI spot filling is slow. Holders are mainly supportive of the market, while downstream demand is sluggish, with a small amount of rigid demand procurement. Market trading is limited, and the negative impact on the demand side is more obvious. Currently, the market supply and demand are in a dilemma, causing TDI prices to fluctuate more. In the later stage, the TDI market may continue to remain stagnant and consolidate. Specific attention should be paid to downstream follow-up situations.

Price trend

In mid December, the domestic ABS market continued to experience weak consolidation, with spot prices of various brands fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11050.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -0.79% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In mid December, the domestic ABS industry continued to bear the high load from the previous period, with an average operating rate of over 74% recently, which is relatively stable compared to the previous period. The production of the enterprise is stable, and inventory is steadily increasing. In addition, in the early stage, the new equipment and new goods of Ineos Benling continued to expand, leading to further filling of the on-site supply of goods. The company’s loss situation continues, with high supply pressure. The supply side’s drag on the spot market continues.

In terms of raw materials: In mid December, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was weak, with the acrylonitrile market basically stabilizing. Insufficient repair of raw material prices and average cost support for acrylonitrile; The main downstream construction is still stable, and the negative impact of the increase in load on the acrylonitrile unit has been exhausted. The on-site supply of goods has been tightened, and the on-site quotation is operating steadily.

In mid December, the domestic butadiene market experienced a significant decline. The main production enterprise Sinopec has significantly lowered its ex factory quotation, while the supply is relatively abundant. The main production enterprises in Northeast China are bidding to the outside world at lower prices, which has significantly dragged down the market atmosphere. The main downstream industries have not seen a significant improvement in production, and there is little positive news to boost demand in the short term. The domestic market price of butadiene has sharply declined.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market prices remained stagnant in mid December. The international oil prices are consolidating at a low level, with upward expectations. Due to its impact, pure benzene has seen a narrow increase, while the cost support for styrene has slightly increased. But the main downstream market is not good, and on exchange trading remains at the off-season level. Merchants are cautious in their quotations, and spot transactions of styrene are average, with limited expected increases.

In terms of demand: In recent times, downstream factories, including the home appliance industry, have shown a sustained lack of enthusiasm for stocking up on ABS’s main terminals. The main logic revolves around digesting existing inventory. Enterprises tend to maintain production in their procurement operations, making it difficult to increase demand. Mid stream traders have a heavy wait-and-see attitude and low willingness to purchase goods, resulting in weak demand and dragging down the spot market.

Future Market Forecast

In mid December, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials was poor, and the support for ABS cost was weak. The operation of petrochemical plants has generally maintained its early stage, with continuous increase in interval production and high supply pressure. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. How much profit there is on the market, causing the price of ABS to be weak and difficult to improve. The main contradiction between supply and demand in the current market is expected to be difficult to ease in the short term, and the ABS market may have downward momentum. It is recommended to closely monitor the adjustment of supply side production capacity.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on December 11th was 13112 yuan/ton, and on December 18th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13075 yuan/ton. This week, the price of caprolactam fell by 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of caprolactam has slightly increased after a decline. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and procurement is relatively cautious. The supply side of caprolactam is gradually recovering, and market confidence is increasing. As of December 18th, the settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 13350 yuan/ton. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On December 11th, the price of pure benzene was 6742 yuan/ton, and on December 18th, the price of pure benzene was 6837 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 6800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized).

This week, the downstream PA6 market stabilized and saw a narrow rise. The load of domestic polymerization plants is almost horizontal, and the inventory position remains low. The demand side is cautious in purchasing goods, and market trading tends towards the low-end. It is expected that the supply of goods in the future may increase due to new production facilities, and the PA6 market may continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the market price of caprolactam has slightly increased recently. The raw material pure benzene market has started to recover, and the downstream PA6 market has risen, indicating a decent demand for raw materials. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to improve in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of para xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of para xylene has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 11.41%.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has fluctuated, and the external PX price has not changed much. As of the 14th, the closing price in Asia is 944-946 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 969-971 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene units in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen first and then increased, and the trend of crude oil is fluctuating. The domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable.

In recent times, the international crude oil price trend has dropped first and then increased. As of the 14th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $71.58 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract is 76.61 yuan/barrel. The unexpected increase in CPI data and the rebound in inflation have lowered market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut at the beginning of next year; The crude oil market has shown a downward trend due to market concerns about oversupply. Previously, there was a oversold in the market, with the weakening of the US dollar driving up oil price valuations. Coupled with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its forecast for next year’s oil demand, the oil market was boosted. Overall, the crude oil price range fluctuated, and the domestic para xylene market prices remained weak.

The domestic PTA spot market has slightly declined, with an average price of 5657.5 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the weekend, a 1.52% decrease from the price of 5745 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. From the recent changes in PTA equipment, it can be seen that the PTA equipment has been operating relatively steadily this week, with an industry operating rate of around 86%. The downstream polyester production load is 87%, and cost support is weakening. The polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with the consumption of early raw material stocking as the main focus, resulting in a stalemate in transaction focus. The trading atmosphere in the short fiber market is light, with many traders offering discounts on prices, and customers from yarn factories have limited orders and low purchasing willingness. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has moderately decreased to around 75%, coupled with low profits from raw fabrics, it is expected that a small amount of raw materials will be purchased at a low price by the end of the month. The unfavorable downstream market is bearish for the xylene market, and the PX market trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in the domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices are mainly fluctuating in the range. In the early stages of downstream PTA maintenance equipment, new equipment is being restarted and put into operation. With the decrease in downstream polyester production load, the PTA market is under pressure, and it is expected that the terminal’s sustained replenishment may be difficult to sustain. It is expected that the price trend in the xylene market will remain stable in the later stage.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 14, 2023, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 4150 yuan/ton. Compared with December 9 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate is 4200 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (12.9-12.14), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a downward trend. During the week, the overall performance of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate remained average, and the overall operating rate on the supply side was low. Some factories in Shandong continued to undergo maintenance but have not yet started. At the beginning of the week, after the supply of dimethyl carbonate in some factories was slowly released, the supply pressure of factories was reduced, and the price of dimethyl carbonate was narrowly increased by about 50 yuan/ton. As the weekend approaches, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate remains weak, and the overall focus on the market has slightly declined. The price of dimethyl carbonate has been lowered by about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of December 14th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 3900-4300 yuan/ton, and the lower price is around 3800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl carbonate on the exchange is relatively light, and the transmission of supply and demand on the exchange is still relatively slow. The mentality of the industry is average, and downstream stocking is cautious. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic light rare earth market prices have been continuously falling recently. On December 11th, the rare earth index was 470 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 53.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 73.43% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have all declined, while the price of metallic praseodymium remains low; As of the 12th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 552500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.74%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 447500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 5.29%; The price of neodymium oxide was 457500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 5.18%; The price of neodymium metal is 582500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.90%; The price of praseodymium metal is 600000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide is 465000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.12%.

The domestic light rare earth market has been in a continuous decline, with limited transactions and few new orders recently. The purchasing willingness of enterprises is low, and the overall decline in the market is difficult to change. Recently, some companies have lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material companies have a sluggish purchasing willingness, mainly focusing on consuming inventory. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, resulting in a sustained decline in rare earth market prices. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, with prices of praseodymium neodymium metal still hanging upside down, poor transaction performance, and sluggish purchasing sentiment, leading to a decline in prices in the domestic light rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production of new energy vehicles in November 2023 was 1.074 million units, with sales of 1.026 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and 30%. From January to November 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.426 million and 8.34 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% and 36.7%, and a market share of 30.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in November were 4205.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to November was 48867.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a sustained decline in the light rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7833.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 4.91%, and the weekend price increased by 26.01% year-on-year. On December 10th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.76, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.34% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 32.01% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight increase in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7105.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6968.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.94%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.27% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, and cost support has weakened. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly declined, with the market price dropping from 9725.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9650.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.77%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.62% over the weekend. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late December, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.