Price trend

In March, the domestic PA66 market remained stable with some growth. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on March 27th, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 22900.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.03% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

Adipic acid: Due to the high price of adipic acid at the end of February and poor downstream follow-up in March, the performance of adipic acid has gradually weakened this month. The price of raw material pure benzene first rose and then fell, and there was no positive release on the supply side. Under the continued accumulation pattern, the offer of adipic acid continues to loosen, weakening support for PA66.

Hexanediamine: The market for hexanediamine has been operating strongly this month, and the market has been affected by multiple increases from international major factories, resulting in a gradual increase in prices. The improvement of the tight supply pattern in the superimposed market is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high point in the short term; Overall, the cost of two materials, one strong and one weak, provides sufficient support for the PA66 market.

In terms of supply:

This month, the operating rate of the domestic PA66 production line remained low and adjusted. The overall industry load during the month remained basically unchanged compared to the end of February, with an average of over 62%. At present, the production of enterprises is stable and there is no accumulation of inventory. The price adjustment operation is clear, and the supplier’s support is still sufficient.

In terms of demand:

Entering March, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises have been following a routine in stocking and consumption, with most of their procurement operations maintaining production as the main focus. The main force of on-site trading is supported by the follow-up of demand, and the buyer camp has slight resistance to high priced goods. Traders have strong confidence in stabilizing prices and are actively engaged in price fixing operations. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 remained stable with an increase in March. The raw material market continues to be strong, providing sufficient support for the cost side of PA66. The PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is also low. The demand changes of terminal enterprises are limited. It is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

Domestic cobalt prices fluctuate and fall

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on March 26th was 224600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% from the high cobalt price of 227000 yuan/ton on March 19th last week. The United States has abandoned purchasing reserves of cobalt, and the international cobalt market demand is lower than expected. The rise in cobalt prices has supported a decline, and this week cobalt prices have fluctuated and fallen.

Increased uncertainty in cobalt demand growth

In 2024, the overall domestic economy is in a state of recovery, and the cobalt market is expected to recover. However, there is still uncertainty in the terminal demand for cobalt. The policy supports the development of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the consumption of cobalt in the market. However, as the supply of cobalt raw materials increases and the share of lithium iron phosphate is squeezed, the demand for cobalt in the market may be difficult to meet expectations, and the support for the rise in cobalt prices is limited.

According to sources cited by the media, the United States considered purchasing cobalt for defense reserves last year, with the aim of increasing cobalt reserves to reduce dependence on foreign countries. The market expects cobalt prices to drop to $16 per pound, which will stimulate the United States to purchase cobalt reserves. However, cobalt has not been listed as a weak link in the need for reserves, which is unexpected in the market. US cobalt reserves have just decreased in demand, and overall cobalt market demand is lower than expected.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in January was 69453 physical tons, equivalent to 20938 metal tons, an increase of 32.95% month on month and 133.65% year-on-year. The import volume of cobalt raw materials in February was 44761 physical tons, equivalent to 13585 metal tons, a month on month decrease of 35.12% and a year-on-year increase of 76.26%. The total import volume of cobalt raw materials from January to February was 114214 tons, equivalent to 34523 metal tons of cobalt. From January to February, cobalt raw materials gradually arrived at the port. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival, ship arrivals were delayed, and the overall arrival volume of cobalt raw materials in February decreased. It is expected that the arrival volume of cobalt raw materials in March will increase, with an expected arrival volume of 15000-16000 metal tons.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the uncertainty of increasing demand in the cobalt market has increased, and the demand for cobalt reserves in the United States has decreased, resulting in overall lower than expected demand in the cobalt market. In the future, the amount of cobalt raw materials arriving at the port has increased year-on-year, and the supply of cobalt in the market has significantly increased; However, there are still doubts about the degree of recovery in the field of ternary power batteries, the degree of improvement in demand for 3C electronics, and the increase in demand for hard alloys. The demand for cobalt in the market is still uncertain, and it is difficult to determine the increase in supply and demand. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PP market has been rising recently, and prices of various wire drawing brands have mostly increased. As of March 22nd, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7771.43 yuan/ton, up or down+0.83% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, there have been positive trends in the international crude oil market recently, which has supported the recovery of the cost side of oil based PP. Crude oil drives downstream propylene to fluctuate and rise, while propane generally stabilizes, providing strong support for propylene production and PDH. The methanol market is also relatively stable, but due to weak demand, market prices have quietly dropped, which has loosened support for PP. The overall support for PP from upstream raw materials is still acceptable.

Overall, the raw materials have remained stable with some growth, and there is still support for the PP cost side. The industry load fluctuated narrowly, with an average load of around 76% this week. There are some production line maintenance plans for next week, and at the same time, the new production capacity in March has not been fully implemented, and the market supply has not reached the expected level. At the same time, the overall inventory position has declined, and there is no significant supply pressure in the market. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises is basically horizontal, and the comprehensive operating rates of downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding are about 40%, 64%, and 56%, respectively, with no significant improvement. The replenishment operation of enterprises is average, and the trading atmosphere on the market is not strong. The overall market for wire drawing materials is affected by the expected positive effects of cost and supply tightening, and the market is warming up.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 22, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7637 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of 1.66% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 1.36% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen an increase in low load, with a relatively high operating rate of 26%. The load on end enterprises has increased, and the market non-woven fabric contracts have risen narrowly. The digestion speed of end products has not improved, and the main support for fiber material prices comes from the cost side. It is expected that the fiber material market will continue to consolidate.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has recovered this week. As of March 22, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 7987 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.16%, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.19%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. In addition, downstream factories have a low load, resulting in new orders leaning towards loose orders. It is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to be weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has strengthened recently. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is stable with some increases, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. There is an expectation of tightening PP supply next week, and there is a positive outlook on the supply side. But terminal enterprises operate steadily, stock up is necessary to maintain production, and on-site trading is average. It is expected that the PP market will remain strong in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4737.50 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4762.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.06%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is operating in a narrow upward trend. Anqing Shuguang and Xiaoyi Xindongheng equipment maintenance; Guangju New Materials, Yunnan Qumei, and Yunnan Pioneer Plant have reduced production; Daqing Methanol Plant, Sinopec Great Wall, and Xinjiang Xinye Plant have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors. The low volume of methanol arriving at the port and the low level of port inventory have provided strong support to the market, resulting in a slight increase in the methanol market.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has slightly increased, and cost support has improved. The market for polyformaldehyde is expected to follow suit, and polyformaldehyde analysts from Business Society predict that the price may increase slightly.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 20, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 3866 yuan/ton. Compared with March 13 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate is 3816 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has recently experienced a slight upward trend. At present, the overall supply of dimethyl carbonate in the factory has increased. Although the supply has increased, the overall downstream demand side of dimethyl carbonate has improved. Supported by demand, the overall inventory pressure of dimethyl carbonate factories is still controllable. Therefore, the overall focus of the dimethyl carbonate market is moving upwards. As of March 20th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3650-4000 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is mild, and the mentality of the operators is good. Dimethyl carbonate factories mainly arrange orders and shipments. According to the data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate steadily, with a small to strong trend. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the downstream paint demand is average. This week, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of new pentanediol in the mainstream market in China dropped from 10666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10633.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.31%, and the weekend price increased by 0.31% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, new pentanediol enterprises started construction at a high level, and mainstream market prices slightly declined.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price has slightly declined this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8766.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 2.59%, and the weekend price increased by 19.55% year-on-year. The upstream isobutyraldehyde has a weak center of gravity, with a slight decrease in market prices and insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of new pentanediol. From the perspective of downstream demand, the recovery of the downstream paint industry is slow, and demand remains weak. The enterprise has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with a focus on essential procurement.

3、 Future prospects

In late March, the market trend of new pentanediol may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with enterprises mainly focusing on procurement for immediate needs. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 11th to 15th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 17000 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton, with a 1.18% decrease in price during the cycle, a 1.61% increase compared to the previous period, and a 0.12% year-on-year decrease. The domestic aggregated MDI market prices have fallen, with limited follow-up on the demand side and a less than expected purchasing atmosphere. The downstream end has limited resilience.

The supply side is affected by favorable factors such as reduced supply from production enterprises.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: domestic pure benzene prices are relatively high. The domestic production of pure benzene has limited changes, and the downstream demand for pick-up is stable. However, the number of imported goods on board has increased, and port inventories have slightly accumulated. As of March 15th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8508.83 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Domestic aniline prices first fell and then rose, with high inventory and pressure from aniline factories. Downstream demand is weak, leading to a decline in aniline prices; In the later stage, the price of pure benzene as a raw material increased, and cost support strengthened. After a tentative slight increase in the aniline factory, shipments from the aniline factory were smooth, inventory pressure decreased, and the price of aniline continued to rise. The cost impact of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream demand has not recovered as expected, and there is still room for lower demand. Currently, small and medium-sized factories have poor purchasing enthusiasm, and their acceptance of the current aggregated MDI price is still average, with limited overall transmission. The impact of short-term aggregate MDI demand is mixed.

In the future market forecast, as the supply of goods stabilizes and the quantity of goods is abundant, downstream follow-up will continue to be slow, and buying will be weak. Business Society’s MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and consolidating.

This week, the domestic first-class sponge titanium market operated steadily. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market price of first-class sponge titanium ranges from 53000 to 55000 yuan/ton. As of March 14th, the benchmark price of domestic first-class sponge titanium is 54000.00 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the week, it remained unchanged.

The upstream raw material magnesium market price has decreased this week. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of March 14th, the benchmark price of magnesium in Business Society was 17900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.45% compared to the beginning of this week (18733.33 yuan/ton). The cost pressure on sponge titanium production enterprises has been reduced, but inventory is insufficient, and prices will continue to remain strong.

On the downstream side, the demand for titanium materials and the military industry market has increased, and sponge titanium is in a stable demand situation.

Late stage forecast: According to the analysis of the sponge titanium analyst at Business Society, the pressure on raw material costs has slowed down, downstream demand is stable, and sponge titanium production enterprises are in a pattern of both supply and demand. Due to factors such as insufficient inventory, it is expected that the sponge titanium market price will remain strong.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly declined recently (3.1-3.12). On March 12th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from 7420 yuan/ton on the 1st.

Narrow range fluctuations in international crude oil prices provide some support for the cost of mixed xylene

Recently (3.1-3.12), on the one hand, the geopolitical situation has been relatively calm, but market concerns about demand still exist; On the other hand, OPEC+agreed earlier this month to extend its voluntary production reduction until the second quarter. The international crude oil market has recently experienced narrow fluctuations, which still provides some support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of March 11th, WTI04 contract settlement is $77.93 per barrel; Brent 05 contract settlement is $82.21 per barrel. The continued slight increase in the price of Asian mixed xylene provides support for the domestic market, with prices of Asian isomeric grade xylene ranging from $937 to $938 per ton as of March 11th.

Mixed xylene port inventory continues to remain high, and supply pressure remains on the supply side

The continued high supply of mixed xylene in port inventory has put pressure on mixed xylene. It is understood that as of March 8th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 108000 tons.

Stable demand for xylene production and support for mixed xylene production

The domestic supply of xylene is stable, and the domestic PX operating rate remains above 80%. However, there are still some units undergoing maintenance, and there is sufficient spot supply. This week, the international crude oil price range fluctuated, and PX external prices have decreased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 977-979 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1002-1004 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Stable market for phthalic anhydride, low starting point, stable but weak support for mixed xylene demand

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very abundant, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

After the holiday, the domestic mixed blending market recovered slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continued to be weakly supported

After the holiday, the recovery of the domestic mixed blending market was slow, and the demand for mixed xylene mixed blending weakened. As of March 7th, the construction of refineries nationwide was around 7.3.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil prices will fluctuate, with some support for mixed xylene costs. The downstream polyester industry will have strong support, but the support for phthalic anhydride and mixed blending industries will be weak. In addition, domestic port inventories of mixed xylene will continue to be high. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly increased this week. The sulfuric acid price has risen from 241.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 246.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.07%, and the weekend price has dropped by 8.23% year-on-year.

Upstream market fluctuates slightly, while downstream procurement enthusiasm increases

From the supply side, mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers saw a slight increase in prices this week, with low production and average inventory levels.

From the upstream market perspective, the sulfur market in the upstream has slightly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 1033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1023.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.97%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.35% over the weekend. At present, the price of sulfur at the port continues to decline, which has a negative impact on the spot market. There is a clear bearish sentiment on the market. In order to stimulate shipments, some refineries have lowered their sulfur prices.

From the perspective of downstream market conditions, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in the downstream market has slightly increased, rising from 3120 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3136.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.53%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.81% over the weekend. At present, the supply of ammonium phosphate is relatively low, the market supply is tight, and the spring plowing fertilizer season is approaching, and the demand side needs to be released.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late March, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the product trend is on the rise. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and rise.