Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province has fallen continuously since January 9, 2019. On January 9, the average price of propylene in Shandong Province was 8306 yuan/ton. By January 14, the average price of propylene in Shandong Province had fallen to 7920 yuan/ton, with a drop of 4.69% in six days.

II. Analytical Review

Products: Recently, the domestic propylene (Shandong) price has fallen sharply. At present, the mainstream market turnover has dropped to 7700-8000 yuan/ton. After the continuous rise of the market in the early period, although the supply and demand have not changed much in the near future, but refinery shipments are not smooth in the early period, and the overall trading mentality is cautious. Refineries are active in delivering goods in order to preserve inventory space during the Spring Festival.

Industry chain: In the upstream, crude oil revenue rose in 2019, the longest trend in nine years. However, due to the long downward momentum and time of crude oil market in the early stage, raw material stocks of enterprises are relatively sufficient, that is, the price of crude oil corresponding to propylene is still low, and the cost support is not obvious. Downstream, polypropylene futures prices continue to be depressed, PP powder profit is not high and there is a downward trend or parking trend. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream enterprises are only purchasing raw materials on the premise that they have sufficient propylene reserves, and some enterprises have begun to consume stocks.

3. Future Market Forecast

In conclusion, propylene refinery shipments are more positive, market sentiment is strong, and trading atmosphere is cautious; upstream crude oil is rising, but the low-price inventory of refinery is still in the early stage, so the support is limited; downstream polypropylene futures prices are low, PP powder has a negative trend or parking trend, so propylene is expected to still have some downward space before the festival, and later sales. Prudence.

Butadiene FOB Korea closed on January 11 at $1169-1171 a ton, up $35 a ton; Butadiene CFR China closed at $1229-1231 a ton, up $30 a ton.

Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise. As of January 10, the price of butadiene was 10,736 yuan/ton, up 12.77% from the same period last year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic butadiene market prices continue to rise, the market is waiting for the main supplier policy trend, Shandong manufacturers’supply price has been revised back, Sinopec South China, North China, Central China butadiene external supply price increased 600 yuan/ton, Sinopec East China butadiene external supply price increased 900 yuan/ton within two days, Panjin ethylene base price increased 500 yuan/ton, the implementation of 11310 yuan/ton. Downstream purchasing is still prudent and just needed. It is expected that butadiene market prices will fluctuate.

Industry chain: styrene-butadiene rubber: due to the strong butadiene, and because of the expectation of rising prices, there is speculation in the styrene-butadiene rubber market, the business offer slightly improved. Inquiries are better in some areas but tend to be in the middle. The terminal link is always general and the transaction is general. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is on the rise. Market offer price slightly increased, some offer price on the high side. On-site inquiry atmosphere is light, high offer makes buyer retreat, spot turnover is scarce. SBS: The price of oil glue in domestic SBS market has increased slightly, and the dry rubber duct has been narrowed.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external price is firm, butadiene supply side is tight; on the negative side, the downstream synthetic rubber market is insufficient to follow up. Business Association butadiene analysts predict that short-term domestic butadiene market digestion growth rate is the main concern about market turnover.

On Jan. 8, the inventory of zinc ingots in London LME market was 127 600 tons, with a decrease of 325 tons, representing a change of 0.25%.

On January 8, the LME zinc ingot stock was 127 600 tons, of which 109 225 tons were registered warehouse receipts, 18375 tons were cancelled warehouse receipts, accounting for 14.40%.

First, the price trend

According to the data of the business community, the market price of acrylic acid increased slightly this week, the market performance was more active, the overall inventory of the market was controllable, and the tight supply provided by the manufacturer overhaul provided strong support for the price. 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and the space for negotiation is limited.

Second, the market analysis

Product: Jinan Century Tongda Chemical Co., Ltd. price increased slightly, the acid is 9,500 yuan / ton, refined acid 10,000 yuan / ton; Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Co., Ltd. acrylic acid price between the districts, the acid is 10,100 yuan / ton, refined acid 11,000 yuan / Ton. The specific transaction price, the actual single talk.

Industry chain: Domestic propylene prices have started to fall this week. The market supply is relatively plentiful. Most of them are mainly rigid transactions. The enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has been weakened, and the market mentality has been adjusted. The price is 10,000-10150 yuan/ton.

Third, the market outlook

Acrylic analysts in the business community believe that the domestic supply of acrylic acid is tight, some suppliers have equipment maintenance, and the market price has warmed up. It is expected that the focus of the acrylic market will move upwards in the short term, and the price will fluctuate between communities.

Yesterday, the phenol market continued its upward trend. Sinopec’s bills were raised by 400-500 yuan/ton as scheduled, and the implementation of 11900-12000 yuan/ton. As of yesterday, the market offers were as follows: The mainstream reference for supply in the East China region rose to 12,200 yuan / ton, Yanshan and Shandong regions followed the petrochemical rise, the market offer was at 12,100 yuan / ton, the Henan region has a high price The offer price was high, and the market execution was 12,400 yuan/ton. Although the market in the early period of the previous offer was inconsistent, the East China market continued to rise, and the confidence of the holders increased to 12,400 yuan/ton. At present, the mentality of the national traders continues to improve. Although the petrochemical manufacturers in the department are still heavy, but the holders are still over-reporting, the downstream is still purchasing on demand. It is expected that the market will continue to rise. At present, the offer in East China is 12,200 yuan/ton.

First, the price trend

This week, the factory price of yellow phosphorus continued to rise. The mainstream quotation of the market has a trend of close to 15,000 yuan/ton. The main producing area is Yunnan. The large-scale production enterprises temporarily accumulate inventory, with very few external shipments, and the market supply is reduced. Phosphorus prices are on the rise. At present, there is still room for market upside, manufacturers are limited to ship, and the confidence to wait for the high price is sufficient. Relatively speaking, the other major producers are reluctant to sell.

Second, the market analysis

Products: The price of yellow phosphorus in the previous period almost fell below 14,000 yuan / ton. The market was affected by the high price of coke and graphite electrodes, and the price was raised. The overall operating rate of the market has decreased. Most of the manufacturers have run upside down during the wet season this year. At present, they are reluctant to sell and have a strong mentality. The downstream inquiries were positive this week, but the overall market volume was not high, and the company’s operating rate was about 40%. Considering that the yellow phosphorus enterprises accounted for the majority of loss operations this year, it is expected that some of the restricted enterprises will be willing to resume normal sales when the price of yellow phosphorus is close to 15,000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price of phosphate ore in the upstream of this week remained at a high level, and the price of high-grade phosphate rock was generally raised by 20-30 yuan/ton. The installation started normally and the supply was tight. Coke prices have risen and the recent increase has exceeded 15%. The downstream phosphate market price has recently recovered, and the ammonium phosphate stocks are low, driving the downstream demand of phosphoric acid. The terminal phosphorus fertilizer will usher in the winter storage procurement season in late September, but the overall domestic ammonium phosphate and phosphoric acid operating rate is still low, and it is difficult in the short term. Pulling demand for yellow phosphorus.

Third, the market outlook

Yellow Phosphorus analysts of the Chemical Industry Chemicals Branch believe that the current cost support of Huang Pho is very strong. The downstream purchases are weak, leading to a fierce bidding for suppliers. Recently, downstream demand has rebounded, and yellow phosphorus prices still have room for growth.

First, the price trend

Styrene prices fell this week. According to business community data: this Monday (September 10) sample company price is 11729.17 yuan / ton, this Friday (September 14) sample business price at 11554.17 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.49%, the price is lower than last year It rose by 2.81% over the same period.

Second, market analysis

Product: The styrene market fell this week. On September 10, East China styrene closed at 11,720-11,750 yuan / ton, September 13, 11580-11,630 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton, the above is Zhangjiagang out of the tank price. On September 10, South China styrene closed at 11,900 yuan / ton, and on September 13, 11,850 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton, the above factory sent the price. Daqing Petrochemical’s 230,000 tons/year plant stopped on July 23 and has restarted as planned. Styrene stocks have increased, trading volume is not high, and prices have fallen.

Industry chain: The price of pure benzene in the upstream fell. The price at the beginning of the week was 7255.25 yuan/ton, and the weekend was 7106.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07%. No styrene cost support was given. The downstream PS shock consolidation, EPS prices fell slightly, the downstream companies operating rates in general, on-demand procurement, styrene market fell.

Third, the market outlook

In the second half of the year, the domestic styrene plant restarted more, and was affected by the trade war. The business analysts thought that the styrene market was mainly consolidating, and it was not possible to rule out a small drop. The market should pay more attention to the market and the trend of the futures market

Moscow, September 7th, data released by Russian customs show that Russia’s aluminum and copper exports increased from January to July 2018, but nickel exports fell.

The following is the Russian export details of aluminum, nickel and copper from January to July 2018 provided by the Customs Service of the Russian Federation:

January-July 2018 January-July 2017
Export volume (1000 tons) Export volume (million USD) Export volume (1000 tons) Export value (million USD)
Copper 380.0 2,537.3 316.6 1,798.8
Nickel 77.1 1,062.1 81.7 767.7
Aluminum 1,754.8 3,183.6 1,708.3 2,824.0

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of nickel on September 3 was 107131.25 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the previous day and up 15.13% year-on-year.

Nickel prices have always been swaying with new energy demand and performing well. Although the trade war has been in full swing, nickel prices have been dominated by high prices. Today, it suddenly fell sharply. On the one hand, Trump expects the news of the increase of tariffs to continue to ferment. In the morning, the blacks drastically dragged down the overall market sentiment. On the other hand, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Development Center released 30 car companies to be stopped. At least one year after the production of new energy vehicles, the news came out, the market was in vain, and the news that the country stopped new energy vehicles was undoubtedly like a thunderstorm, which caused the nickel market to be shocked. The expected demand for nickel was greatly reduced, and the nickel price fell below the previous low.

Market outlook: The trade war and the Fed rate hike are still uncertain. The expectations of new energy vehicles for nickel demand have fallen short. Fortunately, in September, the demand for downstream stainless steel may increase, and nickel is supported. It is expected that nickel prices will be weak in the short term.