Commodity index: on November 27, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 105.41, unchanged from yesterday, 3.30% lower than the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, and 4.47% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on April 09, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: for the manufacturers monitored by the mainstream of the business association, on November 1, the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 1966.67 yuan / ton, and on November 27, the market price was 1950 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.85% this month. Among them, the lowest price was 1943.33 yuan / ton, the highest price was 1966.67 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 1.19%. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride from this month to now: the quotation with tax of 1800-2000 yuan / ton for polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%), 390-410 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial level, content 10% – 12%), and 20-50 yuan / ton for the lowest price of the manufacturer.

Industrial chain: in November, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers was normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable; however, in addition to the sharp rise in Polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride did not rise in the fourth quarter but fell instead, and the trend in the first half of the month was similar to the extended version of “Z”. In the upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the hydrochloric acid monitored by the business association in North China this month was affected by the rise of upstream liquid chlorine and the difficulty in handling the transportation certificate. The price increased by more than 100 yuan / ton, with a quotation of 173.33 yuan / ton on the first day and a substantial rise to 290 yuan / ton on the 10th. Downstream demand is stable this month, and the volume is sufficient.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. The manufacturer’s production and supply of goods are normal in October and November.

Future market forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, in November, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers was normal, the market supply was large, and the market price of polyaluminium chloride was stable and slightly decreased. The environmental protection inspection is relatively strict, and occasionally the production is stopped for a short time, but the production is not affected as a whole, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the possibility of a sharp rise in the future market price is unlikely, as well as the possibility of a sharp fall, which is still stable with small fluctuations.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 27, the comprehensive price of BPA was 9833.33 yuan / ton, which was just needed to be purchased in the downstream, with general volume and low negotiation focus.

II. Cause analysis

Products: the domestic BPA market maintains a weak operation. At the end of the month, some manufacturers are actively shipping, giving way to profits and taking orders. The inventory is limited, and the focus of negotiation keeps falling. As of November 27, the price of lihuayi Weiyuan BPA is 9500 yuan / ton. The BPA market in East China is weak and volatile, with weak demand follow-up, 9500 yuan / ton, 10000 yuan / ton in South China and 9500 yuan / ton in North China.

Industry chain: the downstream epoxy resin (epoxy) plant is not fully started, and the downstream PC (polycarbonate) is in a weak shock for a short time. The dual downstream supplies and maintains rigid demand for raw materials, and the domestic BPA units are in normal operation. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak, and the short-term market is difficult to rebound. However, the upstream acetone price is rising rapidly, and the cost surface has some support.

III. future forecast

BPA analysts believe that the market is mainly weak and volatile in the short term.

I. trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly last week (11.18-11.22), with the price at the beginning of the week at 10875 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the week at 10950 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 0.69%.

II. Market analysis

The stable ex factory price of petrochemicals, coupled with the rapid price rise of natural rubber, has certain support for the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. Stable ex factory price of petrochemicals: last week (11.18-11.22)), the ex factory price of domestic polybutadiene rubber petrochemical manufacturers was stable. As of November 22, the price of polybutadiene rubber of CNPC Northeast sales company was stable. At present, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding was 10800 yuan / ton, and that of Jinzhou Shunding was 10800 yuan / ton. The price of polybutadiene rubber of CNPC Northwest sales company was stable: the price of Dushanzi Shunding warehouse was 10850 yuan / ton, of which 50 Yuan / ton is the storage fee; the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec North China sales company is stable. At present, Qilu Shunding reports 10800 yuan / ton and North China warehouse raises the price; Yanshan Shunding reports 10720 yuan / ton and North China warehouse raises the price.

Rubber imports fell month on month in October, forming a positive effect on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 500000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October, down 8.4% from 546000 tons last month. China imported 5.213 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) from January to October.

The price of raw materials fell slightly: the price of raw materials butadiene fell slightly, and the cost of raw materials pulled back to cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business news agency, at the beginning of this week, the amount of butadiene was 8634 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, 8590 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.51%.

III. future prospects

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business club, believes that although the price of butadiene, the upstream raw material, is slightly down, the price of Tianjiao is rising rapidly, which will boost the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the short term, and the market is expected to continue to rise slightly in the later period.

On November 25, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 25th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On November 22, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 5 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 773-775 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 794-796 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The rise of external market price has a certain positive impact on the domestic PX market price, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On November 22, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell to $57.77/barrel, or $0.81, while Brent crude oil futures fell to $63.39/barrel, or $0.58. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia and OPEC have a common goal, namely, to maintain the balance and predictability of the oil market, and Russia will continue to work under the global production reduction agreement In October, Russia cut its oil production from 11.25 million B / D in September to 11.23 million B / D, but still higher than the 11.17-11.18 million B / D ceiling set by existing global agreements. Crude oil price is lower, which has lost certain cost support for petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend is stable. In recent years, the textile industry is in a volatile market, the PTA Market operating rate is rising, and the PTA price trend is slightly rising. The average price of the offer in East China is around 4800-4900 yuan / ton. As of the 22nd day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 92.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 87.5%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general trading atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed up by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price The price of PTA in the downstream market remains low due to grid shock. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

I. price trend

II. Market analysis

This week, the operation rate of Mannheim industry recovered. Some of the enterprises that had been shut down before resumed production, but the sales did not see a significant improvement. The inventory is still large, and the high-end products are still being gradually pulled down. At present, the factory price of 50% mainstream powder is about 2650-2700 yuan, that of 50% particles is about 2750-2800 yuan, and that of 52% fully water-soluble powder is about 2800 yuan. It is high in the South and low in the north, with large preferential space. At the same time, the price of potassium sulphate in Mannheim keeps decreasing, which also increases the pressure of potassium sulphate in water salt system.

III. future forecast

Potassium sulphate analysts believe that: this week, the upstream potassium chloride market slightly decreased, potassium sulphate prices are difficult to improve.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product was 5200 yuan / ton on November 20 On November 20, the paraffin commodity index was 77.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.25% from 109.43 (2013-12-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.25% from 63.85, the lowest point on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: WTI futures rose $1.90 per barrel on Wednesday (November 20) at $57.11 in December 2019, and Brent futures rose $1.49 per barrel at $62.40 in January 2020. China’s SC crude oil futures fell 5.1 yuan to 447.6 yuan / barrel in 2001.

Industrial chain: the market of raw materials is basically stable in the near future. The upstream liquid wax market is running smoothly, and the mainstream manufacturers are shipping stably. The purchasing power of liquid chlorine market is weak, and the prices in some areas have been lowered, so it is difficult to improve in the future.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 20, 2019, among which the top three commodities are acrylic acid (2.31%), mixed xylene (1.83%) and hydrobenzene (1.61%). There are 10 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products were maleic anhydride (- 3.11%), epichlorohydrin (- 2.81%) and lithium carbonate (- 1.59%). The average increase and decrease of this day is 0.01%.

III. future forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business association, at present, the supply of domestic chlorinated paraffin Market exceeds the demand, the terminal follow-up is insufficient, and the demand of downstream customers is weak. Some manufacturers adjust prices sporadically, most of the prices tend to be stable, and the overall market has not changed significantly. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will maintain stable operation in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of Friday (November 15) of this week, the average market price of butanone was around 8966 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton, or 1.70% compared with Monday (November 11).

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic butanone market overall maintained stability and slightly pushed up. From the beginning of this week (November 11), the rising situation began to show. With the overall trend of the market, the confidence of the on-site operators increased. At present, the factory has insufficient inventory, the quotation has been raised, the spot resources are still limited, and the market has kept pace with the increase, mainly receiving pre-sale orders. The longest pre-sale reached the beginning of December. At present, by the end of this week On November 15, the overall operation of the market returned to stability, and the purchasing atmosphere fell. The butanone market in Jiangsu Province operated steadily. The reference price of the market was 8800-9000 yuan / ton in spot exchange; the butanone market in Ningbo operated steadily, and the price of the main factories in the market was heard to be 8800-9000 yuan / ton in spot exchange; the butanone market in South China operated steadily, and the reference price of the market was around 9100-9400 yuan / ton The butanone market in East China is running smoothly, with a reference price of 9100 yuan / ton; the butanone market in North China is running smoothly, with a reference price of 9000 yuan / ton; the butanone plant of Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group (Lishu chemical) operates at a low load, with a good sales situation in the near future, with a large number of pre-sale orders, mainly order delivery at present, and the current factory price is around 9000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the mainstream transaction price of civil gas market is 3650-3700 yuan / ton. Today, the transaction is relatively smooth, and it is expected that the pressure of stability is not great in the later stage; the mainstream transaction price of carbon 4 after ether is 4150-4200 yuan / ton, the downstream alkylation transaction after ether is relatively light, and the raw material or stability is relatively weak.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the high level of domestic butanone market will continue in the short term under the condition of low load operation of butanone plant and insufficient inventory.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2713.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2680.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.23%, down 6.10% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 70.22 on November 15.

II. Trend analysis

(I) products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganeng’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2620 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this week; Shaanxi coal industry’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2520 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this week; Neimenggu Zhonglian’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2770 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this week; Ningxia Xingping’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2650 yuan / ton , compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation dropped 50 yuan / ton.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of coke this week is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 1616.67 yuan / ton, down 36.85% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of raw materials in the upper reaches was lower and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price slightly increased this week. PVC price rose from 6670.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6742.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.09%, up 5.88% year on year. PVC market in the lower reaches rose slightly, and customers in the lower reaches were more active in purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, PVC market rose this week, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was not enough. However, the PVC market in the downstream began to rise, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers for purchasing calcium carbide increased. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest will rise in shock in late November.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: as of November 18, according to the data of several sample quoted enterprises, the main quoted price in the market of n-propanol dealers is about 10600 yuan / ton, down by 1.8% compared with last Friday (November 15).

II. Market analysis

Product: last week, the market of n-propanol was stable in a narrow range, the overall trend of upstream ethylene market was stable and rising, and the cost support was relatively stable. Recently, the inventory of some manufacturers in Nanjing is normal, domestic bulk demand and supply are contracted, production and operation are normal, and the supply-demand relationship is generally in a relatively balanced state. The market sales of n-propanol industry is general. As a solvent, the demand of the factory is relatively stable, the trade between factories is more, and the sales through distributors is less. At present, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is 8900-9300 yuan / ton, and the normal operation of 60000 tons / year n-propanol plant in Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. today, the ex factory price of the plant is 9100 yuan / ton. On November 18, the quotation of domestic n-propanol dealers was lowered compared with that of last week, with an adjustment range of 200 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of domestic n-propanol dealers is around 10100-11000 yuan / ton. In view of the dealers’ reservation on the price, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiation conditions or differences, and there are differences in each region, and the actual negotiation is the main one.

Industrial chain: since last week, the overall trend of ethylene has been rising. Prices in the Asian ethylene market rose sharply. As of the end of last week, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $797-805 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $827-835 / ton. Prices in the European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the end of last week, the price in the European ethylene market was FD northwest Europe, which closed at $909-912 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe, which closed at $821-832 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the end of last week, the price was 435-447 USD / ton. Overall, the market of ethylene rose. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

III. future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency, it is expected that the domestic n-propanol market will run smoothly and fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future. In the later stage, we need to pay more attention to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods.

I. market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of POM (96) in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 4783 yuan / ton, while the average price of POM at the end of the week was 4716 yuan / ton, down 1.39%.

II. Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4550 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 5000 yuan / ton, which is stable. The demand for downstream resin and pesticide is general.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market continues to decline. As of November 12, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2134 yuan / ton. Prices fell 10.79% month on month and 24.19% year on year.

III. future forecast

The price of raw material methanol is weak, and the polyoxymethylene analyst of the business association thinks that the price of polyoxymethylene may be mainly adjusted.