On September 28, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 69.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.07% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 43.72% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has declined, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has increased, high-end transactions have been blocked, recent factory inventory has increased, phthalic anhydride market price trend is small. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7000-7200 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6500-6700 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6900-7100 yuan/ton. Most of the manufacturers’prices in the field are back-adjusted, downstream construction is not high, purchasing on demand is the mainstream, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant runs steadily, and the field is stable. The ample supply of phthalic anhydride in stock, together with the near National Day holidays, the transportation of dangerous chemicals is restricted, and some downstream holidays start, the demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Recently, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride is 6,900 yuan/ton. Because of the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods in the field is tight, the price of o-phthalic anhydride keeps high, the import market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area is stable, the recent market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is good, the Negotiations are based on the recent increase in in in-site maintenance facilities for phthalic anhydride in China. The supply of in-site phthalic anhydride is very tight. Supported by the price of upstream raw material phthalic anhydride, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is limited. Downstream DOP prices remained volatile, isooctanol prices remained stable, and DOP costs did not change much. DOP price is stable, DOP downstream demand is normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility declines, DOP high-end transaction is blocked, DOP market mainstream transaction price 8000-8200 yuan/ton, downstream price trend is volatile, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to fall slightly later.

According to statistics, the market price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply this week. By the end of the week, the domestic price of ammonium nitrate was 2116.67 yuan/ton, which was 4.96% higher than the price of 2016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3.89% higher than the previous year. Supported by the price of raw material nitric acid, the market price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply.

On the one hand, ammonium nitrate factory equipment parking, supply reduction, supply shortage on the one hand, coupled with the National Day holiday, transportation restrictions, ammonium nitrate market price rise, on the other hand, by the upstream raw material nitric acid price rise, good support, ammonium nitrate market prices go sharply. High, ammonium nitrate manufacturers shipment market has not changed much, downstream on-demand procurement, by the impact of environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China is still more shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start construction is limited, supported by good raw materials, ammonium nitrate prices have risen substantially. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2100-2300 yuan/ton, and in Hebei is 1950-2100 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China has continued to rise substantially. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical quoted 2600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days); Anhui Jinhe quoted 2500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days); Shandong Helitai quoted 2300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days). Anhui Audley quoted 2460 yuan/ton, 410 yuan/ton higher than last week’s (17) quotation; Wenshui County synthetic chemical quotation 2350 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton higher than the 23-day quotation. With the National Day approaching, there are many parking overhauls for manufacturers, tight supply of concentrated nitric acid market, difficulty in picking up goods, better demand for festivals, active market stocks, multiple favorable factors, which have led to a sharp rise in the price of concentrated nitric acid and the price of raw material nitric acid, which is a good support for the ammonium nitrate market.

Upstream domestic liquid ammonia market is stable and small, the current local ammonia supply is tight, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship goods, but the main price of ammonia producers is stable. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is stable in the market of 2900-3100 yuan/ton liquid ammonia. The market turnover is still acceptable. The average price of liquid ammonia market is 3210 yuan/ton. Most of the liquid ammonia producers have inventory pressure. Generally, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is in the range of 2500-2800 yuan/ton. The high level of liquid ammonia market has a positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has risen sharply.

In recent years, the demand of the downstream civil explosion industry has not improved. The demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a high stock. However, the price of raw materials market has risen sharply. In addition, near the National Day, some ammonium nitrate manufacturers in the North may be restricted. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices have risen sharply, although the downstream demand has not changed much, it is expected that ammonium nitrate market prices will rise due to the support of raw materials in the later period.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the market of Shandong DMF rose this week, with the average price of DMF at the beginning of the week being 4600.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of DMF at the end of the week being 4633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%. Current prices are down 37.10% from last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: DMF market rose this week. By the end of the weekend, mainstream manufacturers in East China offered 5100-5200 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers in Guangdong offered 5300 yuan/ton and mainstream manufacturers in Shandong offered 4800 yuan/ton. Henan Junhua 30,000 tons/year plant parking overhaul has been restarted. The 100,000 tons/year DMF plant in Luxi Chemical Industry of Shandong Province stopped for maintenance on August 14 and restarted in the first ten days of October. Shaanxi Yanxinghua DMF plant with annual output of 100,000 tons/year suddenly stopped for overhaul, and the restart time is unknown. DMF inventory declined, the major DMF manufacturers have a positive mentality, have increased prices, double-positive, DMF prices rose.

Industry chain: The price of methanol in the upstream has risen, which is influenced by the recent surge in crude oil, methanol futures and the expectation of methanol to olefin production. In line with the downstream stockpiling before National Day, the atmosphere of methanol market delivery is positive, the mainland enterprises shipped smoothly, and the focus of market negotiation is constantly rising. At the beginning of the week, the price was 2098.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2190.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.39%. The start-up rate of domestic pulp plant was increased by the influence of the peak season, and the purchase was positive, and the price of DMF increased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol market has been affected by inventory reduction. The downstream slurry enterprises just need to be upgraded due to the peak season of Jinshi Yinshi market. Therefore, DMF product analysts of business associations believe that short-term DMF market consolidation is mainly upward.

Price trends:

According to statistics, this week’s domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene is stable, with an average weekend price of 6,600 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with the price of 6,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 37.14% from the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: The domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable this week. The domestic PX start-up rate maintains more than 70%. Hongrun 600,000 tons of new plant runs steadily. Huizhou refining and chemical plant runs steadily. Fuhai Chuang plant runs steadily. Pengzhou petrochemical plant runs steadily. Yangtze petrochemical PX plant runs normally. Jinling petrochemical plant runs steadily. Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, Urumqi petrochemical unit starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical unit operates normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of p-xylene plant in Asia is more than 70% this week, and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. The price of PX external market fluctuates sharply this week. By the end of the weekend, the closing price of P-xylene market in Asia is 790-792 US dollars per ton FOB Korea and 809-811 US dollars per ton CFR China. Influenced by international crude oil prices, the price of PX external market rose first this week. Later, overall, the price of external market is still rising. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The rising price of PX external market has a positive impact on the domestic market. The price trend of domestic PX market is temporarily stable.

Industry Chain: Domestic crude oil closing price fluctuated sharply this week. As of 19 days, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $58.13 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures price was $64.40 per barrel. Overall, crude oil closing price rose this week, which has a good support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of PX market is temporarily stable. The price trend of downstream PTA market declined this week. As of the end of the weekend, the price trend of upstream raw material PX market was temporarily stable near 5100-5200 yuan self-lifting. Recent PTA start-up load declined to 93.7%. The supply side of a number of equipment overhaul was short of the PX market, the terminal demand changed slightly, and the polyester start-up remained stable. The downstream polyester start-up load is around 88%, and the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remains at 78.5%. The profit of terminal textile texturing enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 78%, and the purchasing mood is general. The prices of Main polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are stable, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the price trend of p-xylene market is stable.

Industry: This week’s textile industry trend remained volatile, textile industry start-up rate changed little, crude oil prices rose slightly, raw material PX market trend was stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that crude oil prices have maintained between $55 and $60 per barrel in the near future, coupled with a slight decline in PTA market prices, a high start-up rate in the downstream textile industry, and normal supply in the domestic PX market, which is expected to remain volatile next week.

1. Trade Name: Silicon Metal (441)

2. Latest price (2019.9.24): 11166.67 yuan/ton

The price of 441_silicon is as follows:

The price range of # metal silicon in Fujian is 10 600-10 800 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Sichuan is 10 800-11 1000 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Kunming is 10 800-11 1000 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Shanghai is 11 800-11 900 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Tianjin Port is 11 400-11 500 yuan/ton, and that of Huangpu is 1 800-11 500 yuan/ton. The price range of metal silicon in Hong Kong is 1100-11300 yuan/ton.

3. Analysis points: Some domestic low-grade silicon prices have been slightly lowered, and market sentiment is slightly pessimistic. It is reported that the current export market is weak, downstream procurement is not much; in addition, some silicon plants have completed early orders one after another, the demand for new orders is strong, due to inventory and the National Day holiday capital turnover factors, low-price supply increased.

4. Future forecast: downstream fear of heights and wait-and-see mood is strong, and short-term metal silicon stable and weak operation is expected to dominate.

On September 23, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 23rd. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On September 20, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 5 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 785-787 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 804-806 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. However, the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On September 20, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 58.09 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 0.04 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 64.28 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 0.12 U.S. dollars. Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz Ben Salman held a news conference in Jeddah, saying Saudi Arabia would soon recover. Most of its oil production, and in a few weeks to fully restore all production, crude oil prices fell, the impact on downstream petrochemical products is limited, and the price of xylene outside was affected by the decline. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA market start-up rate maintained high, PTA price trend temporarily stable, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5200-5300 yuan/ton, up to 20 domestic PTA start-up rate rose to about 94%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 90%, due to PTA market supply increased, trading atmosphere is general, buy-out trade. Traders mainly, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, affected by the decline in crude oil prices downstream PTA market prices remain low, is expected to maintain PX market prices in the short term or 6600 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the domestic R22 ex-factory price this week was 16333.33 yuan/ton, and the overall low level remained stable, down 18.02% compared with the same period last year.

According to a large number of data monitoring by business associations, domestic R 134a ex-factory price this week was 25166.67 yuan/ton, the overall low level remained stable, down 14.2% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s domestic refrigerant demand is weak, after-sales market is just in short supply, traders are not active in obtaining goods, cautious wait-and-see attitude is obvious, just in need; coupled with the current low start-up of production enterprises, adequate supply of market supplies, manufacturers to reduce prices to facilitate shipment mentality pessimistic, refrigerants have no signs of recovery. At the raw material end, the market of hydrofluoric acid and trichloromethane is weak, the trading atmosphere of the market is not high, which does not support refrigerants well. At the same time, the downstream refrigerant air conditioning industry is still in the period of overhaul, and there is no good signal at the demand side. The refrigerant is low and is facing bottom-touching. Currently, R22 is mainly for after-sales market. As of the 20th day, the market price has maintained 14000-17000 yuan/ton level according to the business association data. Domestic R134a market price trend is low, manufacturers mainly export goods, but on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, no intention of hoarding goods. As of the 20th, the market price has maintained a level of 24,000-28,000 yuan per ton, according to business association data.

Industry chain: anhydrous hydrofluoric acid price trend of upstream products continued to decline, recent on-site manufacturers have been poor, the plant has maintained a high start-up rate, domestic spot supply is sufficient, some manufacturers continue to lower the ex-factory price, as of 20, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 9500-10000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. At 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Upstream products in the domestic trichloromethane market overall spot supply gradually returned to normal, prices fell, market negotiation enthusiasm is weak, wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, basic on-demand procurement.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 0 commodities rising or falling, 3 commodities falling and 2 commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities falling were trichloromethane (-4.17%), hydrofluoric acid (-0.48%) and fluorite (-0.38%). This week’s average rise and fall was -1.01%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Refrigerant Analysts believe that: refrigerant manufacturers are starting low, raw material support is weak, terminal demand is sluggish, it is expected that in the short term refrigerants will follow the low cost level consolidation.

On September 18, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 18th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 26 US dollars/ton on September 17. The closing price is 830-832 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 849-851 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. However, the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On September 17, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to $59.34 a barrel, or $3.56, while Brent crude oil futures fell to $64.55 a barrel, or $4.47. Due to terrorist attacks, Saudi Amy’s factories in Bulgaria and Kules caught fire, but the factories responded positively. Nearly 70% of production has been restored and crude oil prices have fallen, with limited impact on downstream petrochemical products and higher external price of paraxylene. Recently, the textile industry has been on the rise, PTA market starting rate has risen slightly, PTA price has risen slightly, the average offer price in East China is around 5400-5500 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA starting rate has risen to about 97.7% by the 17th day, and the polyester industry starting rate is about 90%. Due to the increase of PTA market supply, the trading atmosphere is general, and the buying rate is about 90%. Traders dominate, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, driven by the rise in crude oil prices downstream PTA market prices slightly higher, is expected to maintain PX market prices in the short term or 6600 yuan/ton.

On September 17, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 104.39, which was the same as yesterday. It was 11.85% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 34.92% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices temporarily stabilized on the 17th, domestic ammonium nitrate plant operation is stable, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate manufacturer shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, combined with environmental protection control, the downstream domestic civil explosion industry shut down more, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer start limited, the price maintained low on-site. Bit level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi was 2000-2100 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate went away. The situation is temporary.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in domestic market has risen sharply. The price quoted by the mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu province is 1950 yuan/ton, and the price is 200 yuan/ton higher. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1,900 yuan/ton, the price rose. Shandong manufacturers quoted 1900-2000 yuan/ton, the price trend is rising. The situation of nitric acid shipment has improved, and the rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The domestic market of liquid ammonia in the upstream maintains a low level, and the market turnover is still acceptable. The market price of liquid ammonia is 333.33 yuan/ton. The upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower, and there are many manufacturers. Compared with the previous period, the inventory pressure has increased, some units have been restarted, and the local ammonia supply has increased. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The quotations of manufacturers in North China are maintained in the range of 2900-3300 yuan/ton, in Northwest China in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton, and the low price of liquid ammonia for downstream nitrate. Ammonium acid market has brought some negative effects. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices have risen sharply, downstream demand is still at a low level, expected to be affected by raw material support in the latter part of the ammonium nitrate market prices or will rise slightly.

Price Trend Chart of Nitric Acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

The average price of nitric acid in eastern China was 1 600 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week and 1 716 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up by 7.29%, according to the monitoring of business associations.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the price of nitric acid rose. The price of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province was 1 650 yuan/ton, and the price dimension increased slightly by 50 yuan/ton. Anhui Audley quoted 1650 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1800 yuan/ton; Shandong Helitai factory quoted 1700 yuan/ton, the price rose 100 yuan/ton. Some factories parked, nitric acid shipment improved, nitric acid quotation increased.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, the quotation is temporarily stable. Downstream products, September 12, Shandong Aniline price at 6500 yuan / ton, Aniline stable price shipment.

3. Future Market Forecast

Affected by environmental protection inspection, some factories parked and nitric acid shipments improved compared with the earlier period. Nitric acid analysts of business associations believe that the nitric acid market will be mainly strong.