1、 Price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong fell this week. On December 16, the average price of formaldehyde was 1066.67 yuan / ton, and on December 20, the average price of formaldehyde was 1060.00 yuan / ton, down 0.63%. The current price fell 15.54% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has fallen. As of the 20th, the mainstream factory quotation in Hebei is about 980 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation in South China is about 1180 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is about 1000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation in Jiangsu is 1150 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%. The plant has been restarted. Formaldehyde plant restart more, formaldehyde market stock increased, formaldehyde Market Trading atmosphere is cold, the enterprise shipping pressure increased, the price fell slightly.

Industrial chain: the domestic methanol market continues to be weak, and the local price slightly falls. In terms of the mainland market, the overall change is not big, the demand side remains light, and some enterprises make a small profit when the shipment is weak. It is reported that under the red warning in Henan and other places, some downstream enterprises stop production and vehicle transportation is also limited, which needs continuous attention. In the port market, inventory continued to decline and the market fluctuated in a narrow range, with little change as a whole. However, after the port price was raised, arbitrage with the mainland was closed, and shipment weakened. Limited support for formaldehyde. The downstream market is affected by the environmental protection regulation, the overall operating rate has declined, the demand has shrunk slightly, and the price of formaldehyde tends to decline.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, methanol in the upstream has been sorted in a narrow range, with a small fluctuation in cost and a cold trading atmosphere in the market. The operating rate in the downstream market is generally maintained and just needs to be purchased. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or low level consolidation is the main trend in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fluctuated and consolidated this week. This week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4350.00 yuan / ton, and the current price was 5.43% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the trading atmosphere of domestic potassium nitrate Market is cold this week, the overall inventory is at a low level, the manufacturer is in the maintenance period, and the operating rate is at a low level. At the same time, the actual turnover is low, and the downstream purchase volume just needs to be replenished. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will be mainly weak and consolidated in the short term. The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers is 4200-4500 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). According to different purchase conditions, the quotation is not Same.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium nitrate in the business agency, the recent market of nitric acid is volatile, spot trading is tepid and tepid, and the manufacturer’s mentality is general. It is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will not be greatly improved in the short term, and the market may continue to be consolidated.

On December 15, the fluorite commodity index was 101.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.64% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 105.59% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of fluorite in China has increased slightly. As of the 16th day, the average price of fluorite in China is 2894.44 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field has been normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has increased slightly in recent years. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the stock situation in the fluorite field is normal, and the price trend of fluorite market is slightly up and down Up. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is normal, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in limited market price increase. As of June 16, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite slightly increased.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite remained volatile. As of the 16th, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 10240 yuan / ton. The rising price of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is normal, and the price of fluorite remains low. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has remained low. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, and the downstream market has improved. In addition, the recent hydrofluoric acid market has a rising trend, so the fluorite market may be well supported.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry has improved, the supply of fluorite in the North has declined gradually, and the recent market of hydrofluoric acid has a rising trend. According to Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, the market price of fluorite may rise slightly.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s pure benzene continued to make good profits last week and rose rapidly, with Sinopec raising its listing price twice. On Friday, the listing price of pure benzene enterprises was 5250-5450 yuan / ton, and on Friday, the listing price of pure benzene was 5700-5850 yuan / ton, up 7.74% from last week.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: the port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline this week, and the domestic spot supply of pure benzene was limited, which was good for the price of pure benzene.

2. Crude oil: due to OPEC’s deepening production reduction and favorable trade prospects, crude oil rose in shock this week. WTI was up 1.49% and Brent was up 1.19% compared with December 6.

3. External market: this week, the Asian pure benzene market was forced to empty in January, which caused the focus of Asian pure benzene price to move up, driving the domestic pure benzene price higher.

4. Related industries: this week’s styrene parabola trend, an overall increase of 0.9% over last week; this week’s downstream aniline demand is fair, mainly affected by the cost side, rose passively by 8.51%. However, the overall profit of downstream pure benzene enterprises is low, which limits their growth.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: the progress of the trade agreement smoothly boosted the market, and it is expected that the oil price will be boosted next week.

2. Market: at present, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight, which has certain support for the market in the short term. But this week’s rally was too fast and downstream pressure surged. It is heard that Zhejiang Petrochemical had the export of pure benzene in December. In addition, the situation of short selling was postponed, and the price of pure benzene in the later period was negative.

Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the pure benzene will be stable and weak in operation next week.

On December 9, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On October 10, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China fell slightly. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate plants was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still had a lot of production stops, the domestic ammonium nitrate plants started limited work, and the recent nitrogen fertilizer prices kept falling, which brought certain benefits to the ammonium nitrate Market Under the influence of air, the price trend of ammonium nitrate declined. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi Province has declined to 2100-2200 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton. Affected by the environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, and the raw material cost keeps falling. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is slightly lower Slippery.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1600 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The situation of nitric acid delivery is general. The low price of nitric acid has a certain negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The market of upstream domestic liquid ammonia is rising, and the trend of some enterprises in Shandong is rising by 50-100 yuan / ton. The price in Northwest China remains low. Currently, the local ammonia volume is normal. The mainstream price in Shandong is 3100-3300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in Hebei is 3050 yuan / ton- 3150 yuan / ton, the rise of liquid ammonia market has a certain positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the price drop of ammonium nitrate Market is limited. In the near future, the demand of the downstream nitrogen fertilizer industry is in the off-season, the market is not good, and the market of the civil explosive industry has not changed much. For the market demand of ammonium nitrate, the purchase is on demand, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high, and the general price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that in the near future, the price of upstream raw material nitric acid market continues to be low, while the downstream demand is still low, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will be slightly lower in the later stage.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1616 yuan / ton, and the offer was temporarily stable.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is stable temporarily, that of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry is 1500 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Anhui Jinhe is 1550 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 1800 yuan / ton, the price is stable temporarily. The quotation of Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1750 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. The demand of nitric acid market is general, and the quotation of enterprises is mainly cautious.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, rose 3.64% this week according to the monitoring of the business association. Downstream aniline, the market price of aniline in Shandong on Friday was 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of aniline in Shandong on Friday was 6100 yuan / ton, down 6.15% from last week.

III. future forecast

Nitric acid market demand is light and stable, and enterprises mainly wait and see. Nitric acid analysts of business association predict that the nitric acid market may continue to be weak.

According to statistics, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China this week was stable. As of the end of the week, the price was 10500 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 33.55% year on year.

Product: the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers are generally on the way. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry is still at a low level. The domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate. The domestic spot supply is sufficient, and the domestic price trend is stable. By the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the south is 9500-10500 The price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is normal in the near future, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is general, and the market price in the field is stable, but some manufacturers reflect that there is a continuous upward trend in the near future. By the end of the week, the mainstream of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian was about 9500-10500 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 9500-10000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 9500-10000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 9500-10000 yuan / ton, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market remained volatile.

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of fluorite is 2883.33 yuan / ton. The supply of fluorite in China is normal, but the price of fluorite has little change. The upstream cost price has a certain impact on the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market. With the decrease of gas temperature, the supply of fluorite in the north will gradually decline. At that time, the price of fluorite may rise. For hydrogen There are some positive expectations for the fluoroacid market. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has remained at a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved, while the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the price trend of downstream product aluminum fluoride has declined slightly, at the end of the week, it was 9000 yuan / ton, and this week, the price trend has declined by 1.8%. The downstream market is general, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has remained volatile.

Industry: this week, the upstream raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is normal, coupled with the general trading market of the downstream refrigerant industry, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable.

In the near future, the operation rate of domestic refrigerant unit has not changed much. For the demand of hydrofluoric acid market, purchase is required, and the spot supply in hydrofluoric acid field is normal. However, in the near future, the supply of raw material market has decreased, and the price of fluorite has been supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in business association, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will rise slightly next week.

I. price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid was 5333.33 yuan / ton on November 25 and 5333.33 yuan / ton on November 29, according to the bulk data list of business agency. The trend was stable in the week, up 23.55% compared with the same period last year

II. Market analysis

Product: phosphoric acid enterprises are supported by raw material end, but the price is firm, and some are slightly loose. However, the current situation of phosphoric acid market is general, wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good, the overall delivery is still tepid, and the price is mostly on the market, the downstream is mainly just in need of procurement, with a cautious wait-and-see mentality, and there is no sign of boosting the demand side. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of November 29, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5333.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 4700-5800 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation and overall stability.

Industry chain: the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions were slightly adjusted. Prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other regions remained high. Prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang region were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and prices remained stable in the past two weeks. This month, yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving, the overall market of yellow phosphorus is light in trading, and the price shows a downward trend. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated at a high level.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are six commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on November 28, 2019, among which the top three commodities are isopropanol (2.81%), hydrofluoric acid (2.78%) and acrylic acid (2.16%). There are 10 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were ammonium chloride (- 2.25%), mixed xylene (- 1.16%) and acetic acid (- 0.62%). The average price of this day is 0.04%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and chemical branch, at present, the demand of phosphoric acid enterprises is mostly in a wait-and-see state, the purchasing is not high, and the price fluctuates with the positive support of the raw material end. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will mainly maintain stability in the short term.

I. trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, the nickel price on December 2 was 111966.67 yuan / ton, down 1.91% compared with the previous trading day, up 25.09% compared with the beginning of the year, up 17.26% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Nickel price has been continuously revised back since November, and nickel market has returned to fundamentals after the positive digestion of Indonesia’s ore ban in the early stage. Recently, restricted by the high inventory and profit compression, the stainless steel market has been receiving the news of maintenance and production reduction, which undoubtedly makes the demand expectation of nickel market more pessimistic. The production reduction of stainless steel plant has been implemented in succession, and the basic performance of nickel itself is more negative due to the falling price space of stainless steel itself. However, Indonesia’s nickel ore and nickel iron import data in October were lower than expected, and the Philippines’ supply in rainy season was expected to decline. The import data in November and December were facing a decline, which had some support for nickel prices.

III. future prospects

Future forecast: downstream demand is weak, but supply decline has some support, and nickel price is expected to remain weak and volatile trend.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, aniline rose slightly in November and then fell in a step-by-step manner, with a monthly decline of 19.11%. On October 31, the price in Shandong was 8300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 8700 yuan / ton; on November 30, the price in Shandong was 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6900 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Raw materials: pure benzene: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. On November 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5250-5351 yuan / ton. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid in East China is lower in this month. At the end of October, the price of nitric acid in East China is 1716.67 yuan / ton. At the end of November, the price of nitric acid in East China is 1616.67 yuan / ton.

2. Products: this month, the basic recovery load of the aniline plant shut down by enterprises increased the supply. The downstream demand has been low, the enterprise inventory has accumulated, in order to promote shipment, the price has been lowered many times.

III. future forecast

1. Raw materials: at present, domestic demand for pure benzene downstream is weak, which will still restrict the market recovery. It is predicted that the short-term pure benzene market is difficult to return to temperature, and the weak operation is the main one. But the stock up before the Spring Festival will form a good support for the market.

2. Domestic market: there is no large-scale shutdown of domestic aniline plant temporarily; the overall operation rate of downstream MDI is not high, the demand is weak, and the price of aniline is difficult to recover.

Considering comprehensively, it is expected that aniline will still operate weakly and stably in the short term, and attention should be paid to raw materials and downstream market.