Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

The current market situation of metal silicon this week is divided. The spot market continued to rise this week, with prices reaching 200 yuan/ton month on month. In the early stage, due to the rise of major factories in the northwest region, there were many orders in the northwest region, and silicon factories were actively quoting. The futures market experienced weak volatility this week, with SI2310 rising and falling by -0.84% throughout the week, closing at 13530 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 21st are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14100 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13900-14100 yuan/ton, with an average of 14000 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 14100-14300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13800-13900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13850 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 14400-14600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14500 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of August 18th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 350, with an overall furnace opening rate of 48.75%, an increase of 5 units compared to the previous month. After the recent Universiade, production in Sichuan has gradually resumed, while overall production in Yunnan has remained stable, while the number of furnaces in Xinjiang has maintained an increase.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to rebound and gradually stabilized, with the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials of grade 1 solar energy maintained at 67000 to 80000 yuan/ton. Multiple polysilicon companies have released new production capacity, supporting the demand for metallic silicon.

This week, the organic silicon DMC market saw a slight increase, with a market price reference of 13460 yuan/ton. I have heard that some devices in the organic silicon field are expected to restart, and there may be an increase in on-site supply. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will remain stable in the short term.

The aluminum alloy market is operating steadily, with the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 being 18900 yuan/ton. There has been no significant change in the operation of aluminum alloy factories, and the demand for metallic silicon continues to be weak.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, there has been an increase in short-term supply, while organic silicon and aluminum alloys on the demand side remain on the sidelines. There is expected to be an increase in the production capacity of polycrystalline silicon in the future, and it is expected that the price of metal silicon will be relatively strong in the short term.

Zinc prices fell first and then rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 21, the zinc price was 20276 yuan/ton, which decreased first and then increased compared to the zinc price of 20716 yuan/ton on August 13 last weekend, a decrease of 2.12%. After a significant increase in zinc ingot inventory in the LME market, it decreased. The zinc market has sufficient supply, but the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected. The demand for zinc is poor, and the metal zinc market is bearish. Zinc prices fell first and then rose this week.

Zinc ingot inventory in the LME market plummeted after a surge

From the inventory statistics of zinc ingots in the LME market, it can be seen that the inventory of zinc ingots in the LME market has significantly increased and slightly decreased, resulting in a significant increase in zinc supply in the market. The supply of zinc in the market is sufficient, and the downward pressure on the zinc market has increased. This week, zinc prices have fallen, but as the inventory growth in the zinc market weakens, the downward pressure on zinc prices has weakened and there has been a slight rebound.

Poor demand in the zinc market

The construction of domestic infrastructure and other related projects has not started well, with weak orders from galvanized enterprises, and the operating rate of enterprises has decreased month on month. The US dollar index rose sharply and then fell, while the non-ferrous metal market weakened but showed a rebound trend; The real estate market has experienced losses in the first half of the year due to the phenomenon of “buying houses but not loans”. The real estate market has not seen a significant improvement, and expectations of a rebound in demand in the zinc market have weakened, resulting in weak spot trading.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the inventory of zinc ingots in the LME market has skyrocketed, leading to a significant increase in zinc supply and significant downward pressure on the zinc market; In terms of demand, the macroeconomic recovery is poor, and the demand growth in the zinc market is less than expected, with insufficient support for the rise of the zinc market; However, at present, zinc prices have fallen to a two-year low, and there is limited room for a decline in zinc prices. In the future, there will be a double increase in supply and demand in the zinc market, but the demand growth is not as expected, and the supply is stable. It is expected that the zinc price will be weak and consolidate in the future.

This week (8.11-8.19), the market for butadiene rubber continued to rise slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% from last Friday’s 11370 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise slightly, and the cost support of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continues to strengthen; This week, the supply price of butadiene rubber has temporarily stabilized, and merchant offers have fluctuated slightly.

This week (8.11-8.19), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants slightly decreased.

This week (8.11-8.19), the price of raw material butadiene continued to rebound, and the cost center of butadiene rubber continued to slightly increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of butadiene was 7613 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% from last Friday’s 7551 yuan/ton.

This week (8.11-8.19), the natural rubber market slightly declined, with a bearish impact on butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of natural rubber was 11775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from last Friday’s 11895 yuan/ton.

Recently, the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with all steel tire operating slightly higher than at the beginning of the month, and half steel tire operating basically stable compared to the beginning of the month. The demand for rubber rigid support is stable. It is understood that as of mid August 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province is 6.4% for all steel tires and around 7.2% for half steel tires.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the high raw material prices of butadiene rubber have support in terms of cost. This week, the production of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, and the supply of butadiene rubber has slightly tightened; Downstream all steel tires slightly increased, slightly improving support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; In summary, it is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will be relatively strong in the short term, but if the price of natural rubber continues to be low in the later stage, it will be difficult for butadiene rubber to strengthen again.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price decline of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to increase this week. On August 17th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 222000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.48% compared to the average price of 248000 yuan/ton on August 13th. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate on August 17th was 238600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.83% compared to the average price of 264600 yuan/ton on August 13th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has continued to decline and expand this week. In terms of supply, the current upstream inventory is relatively high, and the production output of lithium salt plants fluctuates little, resulting in sufficient circulation of goods in the spot market. In addition, the continuous decline in lithium carbonate futures prices has driven the price of lithium carbonate to continue to decline.

In terms of demand, due to the continuous downward trend of lithium carbonate prices and a weak market mentality, downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the atmosphere of loose orders and transactions in the market has remained weak. However, downstream procurement has not yet started on a large scale, and there has been no significant improvement on the demand side. The overall market situation of oversupply is maintained. At present, many businesses are bearish about the future market, so the trend of purchasing underpricing is not decreasing.

The price of lithium hydroxide has shown a downward trend, but due to the weak and stable operation of the lithium ore market recently, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to be low, and cost support is weak. In addition, downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is not high. Market transactions are mainly based on demand, and the market is operating weakly.

The price trend of downstream lithium iron phosphate is downward, with weak support for upstream raw material costs and poor market demand. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with weak willingness to stock up. The overall procurement atmosphere is cold and deserted, and the inventory level is currently high, with a stable operating rate.

In terms of futures, on August 17th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 196000 yuan/ton, with the latest price of 194000 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.7%, with 68000 transactions and 26791 positions.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that some businesses are still affected by inventory pressure and bearish aftermarket conditions, and the phenomenon of reducing prices to promote transactions still exists. In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to the actual demand for downstream procurement and replenishment, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to decline weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the focus of the domestic ethanol market continues to rise. From August 7th to 15th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6687 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.93%. The price remained stable month on month and decreased by 0.18% year-on-year. There are slight differences between regions in the domestic ethanol market, with different periods of increase. Henan region has a large number of orders, inventory has decreased, and companies have maintenance plans. Under the influence of favorable factors such as a significant increase in corn prices, the price has increased significantly. Large factories in Northeast Heilongjiang have limited shipments of food, resulting in a slight increase in prices.

On the cost side, due to the recent typhoon causing heavy rainfall in the north, the expected high yield of domestic corn has decreased. In addition, it will still take some time for the new season corn to go public, and the domestic corn market is gradually running out of high-quality and tradable grain sources. The domestic corn market is relatively strong. On August 15th, the benchmark price of corn in Shangshang Society was 2801.43 yuan/ton. There are temporary positive factors in the cost of ethanol.

On the supply side, the Fukang device was shut down and the Tianyu device resumed in mid August; Zhaodong Food resumed around August 15th, but production was limited. Longhe and Romet have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan Houyuan Device Storage and Maintenance Plan. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. At the end of August, some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of petroleum coke from local refineries increased first and then stabilized this week. On August 13th, the average market price in Shandong was 2009.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.21% compared to the price of 1946.50 yuan/ton on August 7th.

On August 13th, the petroleum coke commodity index was 156.26, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.77% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and an increase of 133.61% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. Due to concerns about market supply and continued fermentation, coupled with the positive phase of the peak oil consumption season, OPEC+, an oil producing country, has continued to reduce production by an additional scale, and the decline in finished oil storage in the United States has exceeded expectations.

Supply side: Port petroleum coke storage continues to decline, refining petroleum coke storage remains low

The inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports continues to decline. Recently, there have been fewer imported petroleum coke arriving at ports. In addition, downstream procurement is active, and import traders have a strong willingness to ship. The speed of port shipment is relatively high, and the inventory of petroleum coke in ports is still mainly destocking. This week, the shipment of refined petroleum coke was good, and the overall inventory of the refinery was low. The main focus was on executing early orders, and downstream demand was good, driving up the price of refined petroleum coke. With the high price of petroleum coke, some downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, with local refining petroleum coke prices mainly stabilizing.

On the demand side: terminal operating rate increases, demand increases

The price of metal silicon has increased this week. As of August 10th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 345, with an overall furnace opening rate of 48.05%, an increase of 22 units compared to the previous month. The Sichuan Universiade has ended, and some silicon factories have slowly resumed production; Stable resumption of work and production in Xinjiang region; Due to natural disasters, some smelting furnaces in the Yunnan region have been affected and have been basically restored, with little impact on supply. The operating rate of metal silicon has slightly increased, providing slight support for the procurement of petroleum coke, with mostly small orders in demand.

The local refining petroleum coke market has risen, while the calcined coke market has slightly increased. The release of new and resumed production capacity at Yunnan Aluminum Plant is nearing completion, and most aluminum carbon enterprises are operating at full capacity, which still provides favorable support for the petroleum coke market.

Aftermarket forecast: Overall low inventory in the refinery this week, with more execution of early orders as the main focus, and good downstream demand, driving up the price of refined petroleum coke. With the high price of petroleum coke, some downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, and it is expected that the recent refining of petroleum coke may be the main focus.

From August 4th to August 11th, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China fell first and then rose. The price was 75750 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 76750 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 1.32%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the trend of the antimony ingot market was relatively stable in April, and the overall market was weak in June. After seven consecutive weeks of decline, prices slightly rebounded at the end of July.

The price of European strategic small metal antimony has temporarily stabilized this week, reaching $11450 per ton as of August 11th. The price has remained stable this week, and the overall market atmosphere is on the wait-and-see side.

This week, the antimony ingot market continued its slight upward trend over the weekend, with prices rising by about 1000 yuan/ton during the week. The recent changes in supply and demand have been limited, and they still show weak supply and demand, especially the sluggish downstream demand. The market has a strong bearish sentiment, but since the weekend, antimony ingot manufacturers have had a strong attitude of price support, resulting in a slight increase in antimony ingot prices. The stabilization of overseas markets also provides some support for the market. Overall, the supply and demand in the antimony ingot market are weak, with refinery prices rising and antimony ingot prices rebounding. However, downstream demand is weak, and there is limited room for further upward growth in the future. It is expected to maintain temporary stable operation in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market is operating weakly, with weak downstream demand and overall soft market transactions. The demand for antimony ingots remains strong, while the intention to receive goods from upstream is weak, and on-demand procurement is maintained.

The domestic acetone market rebounded slightly after rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the national acetone market was trading at 6987 yuan/ton on August 1st, dropping to 6837.5 yuan/ton on August 7th, a cumulative decrease of 2.15%.

The supply has increased. At the end of July, with the arrival of imported goods and replenishment, the port inventory increased to nearly 20000 tons. Entering August, new contracts have been shipped one after another, and the supply of phenol ketone factories has significantly increased according to the plan.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on August 7th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Rise and fall range (8.1-7)

East China region/ 6600./-250

Shandong region/ 6950./-200

Yanshan region/ 6900./-150

South China region/ 6880./-150

The news of Shenghong Refining and Chemical not undergoing maintenance has put pressure on traders, and it is expected that there will be an increase in the available supply of goods in the market. In addition, downstream factories are mainly focused on contracts at the beginning of the month, and the wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, resulting in a slightly light trading atmosphere in the market.

At the beginning of the month, terminal factory contracts were the main focus, and the enthusiasm for actively entering the market for inquiries was not high. The short-term acetone range adjustment operation was difficult to have broad fluctuations. Pay attention to market transactions.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of new pentanediol has temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic market for neopentyl glycol is 9350.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 10.38% year-on-year. On August 7th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 45.06, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 4.67% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The mainstream market price of pentylenediol has temporarily stabilized this week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8100.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.65%. Weekend prices increased by 21.50% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In mid August, the market trend of new pentanediol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

The price of Aluminium fluoride fell in a weak way this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of August 4, the quotation of Aluminium fluoride in China was 9575 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from 9650 yuan/ton on July 28 last weekend. The price of raw materials fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in shock this week.

Weak and declining prices of raw material hydrofluoric acid

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9483.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.07% compared to the price of 9585.71 yuan/ton on July 28th last weekend. The poor demand has led to serious losses of hydrofluoric acid enterprises. Recently, some hydrofluoric acid devices have been shut down for the market, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased, and the orders of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have been weak. Affected by this, the market of hydrofluoric acid has remained depressed. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is weak in the off-season of refrigerants. This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid has declined weakly, the cost of Aluminium fluoride has declined, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: the price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and falling this week, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials is falling. In the future, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride is increasing. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will drop in the future.