In March, the domestic asphalt market was affected by the international crude oil price and fluctuated at an overall high level. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 3537 yuan / ton, and the market price of domestic asphalt at the end of the month was 3977 yuan / ton. The price increased by 12.44% during the month and 33.46% year-on-year.

At the beginning of this month, although the international crude oil price broke through the 110 mark, the domestic asphalt market price rose slowly. Different regions are slightly different: only the price in East China fell, mainly due to the price reduction of Sinopec by 50 yuan / ton; In other regions, Shandong has the highest price increase, mainly due to the increase of Qilu Petrochemical by 100 yuan / ton. Driven by the futures market, some refining sources have increased significantly, followed by the increase of 75 yuan / ton in Northeast China and 65 yuan / ton in North China, mainly driven by the rise of raw oil prices.

In mid June, the overall increase of domestic asphalt market was relatively obvious. In terms of regions, the price increase in East China is the most obvious, mainly due to the cumulative increase of Sinopec’s price of 550 yuan / ton during the week; Secondly, the price in South China increased by 500 yuan / ton, and Maoming Petrochemical and PetroChina Gaofu increased by 600 yuan / ton; Then, the price in Northeast China increased by 450 yuan / ton, that in Shandong by 375 yuan / ton, that in Northwest China by 325 yuan / ton, and that in North China by 300 yuan / ton. This was mainly due to the influence of crude oil price, which led to the obvious price rise. However, due to the decline of crude oil, the prices in some parts of the North fell.

In late June, the domestic asphalt market showed a downward trend. In terms of regions, the price decline in Shandong was the most obvious, down 415 yuan / ton, mainly due to the impact of crude oil, the quotation of refining sources in the region fell sharply, and Qilu reduced 400 yuan / ton in total during the week. In the short term, there is room for downward prices in some regions, and the domestic asphalt market may be weak.

At the end of the month, the domestic asphalt market rose slowly. In terms of regions, the rise and fall of this week have been differentiated. Among them, the prices in South China, Southwest China, East China and Northwest China have been reduced as a whole. First, the price in Southwest China has been reduced most obviously; Secondly, the price in East China was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, mainly because the price of Sinopec fell first and then rose; Then, the price of Northwest China was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, mainly due to the price reduction of Sinopec by 100 yuan / ton. During the week, the price increases in Shandong and North China were more obvious, mainly due to the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, the reduction of low-cost supply and the continuous increase of market quotation. In the short term, the domestic asphalt market price may show a strong trend.

Annual comparison chart of asphalt price of business society from 2018 to 2022:

Monthly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price of business society:

Weekly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price of business society:

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in March 2022, there were 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 9 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 56.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (21.91%), petroleum coke (15.86%) and coking coal (14.06%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 13.45%), gasoline (- 7.29%) and naphtha (- 6.89%). The average rise and fall this month was 5.78%.

The asphalt supply is relatively low next month, and the demand may increase slowly as the weather improves. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the domestic asphalt market may be dominated by high-level consolidation.

High aluminum price consolidation in March

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22640 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 0.44%, a year-on-year increase of 31.81%, an increase of 0.35% compared with the average market price of 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (3.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 11.14%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.60% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.11% recently.

High aluminum price consolidation in March

Analysis of the reasons for the sharp rise of domestic aluminum price in the early stage:

1. The market expects that there is not much accumulated inventory in the Spring Festival. In addition to the sudden situation in Baise City, the two aluminum plants of baikuang have stopped production of 420000 tons, and the production reduction is superimposed with the expectation of low inventory in the peak season.

2. The news of the Russian Ukrainian crisis continued to ferment. On the one hand, Russia’s energy and metal exports were devastated by geopolitics. On the other hand, the European energy crisis led to an increase in production reduction expectations, with London Aluminum jumping sharply and the internal market following.

Analysis of the reasons for the current decline and consolidation:

1. Social inventory rose from February to March as a whole, domestic downstream demand recovered slowly, coupled with public health factors that erupted from time to time, logistics was affected, and the downstream operating rate was slightly weaker than that in previous years. Recently, the operating rate of leading downstream processing enterprises decreased, and the impact of the epidemic began to appear. The most obvious decline in the operating rate is the aluminum profile plate, with a sharp decline of 12.3% to 60.5%. The main reason is that this week’s outbreak in Nan’an City, Fujian Province and Binzhou City, Shandong Province led to the shutdown of regional enterprises, affecting the overall operating rate.

2. The price is high in the early stage, with 23000 yuan mark. After many games between the supplier and the demander, the downstream operating rate is narrowed and the supplier is suppressed in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6112 yuan / ton on March 1 and 6700 yuan / ton on March 30. The price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 9.61% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market trend of chlorinated paraffins rose this month. In the first ten days of March, due to the continuous rise of raw material prices and good cost support, chlorinated paraffin rose sharply. The downstream operating rate increased and the demand began to follow up. In mid March, the price of raw materials was corrected. The regional differences of chlorinated paraffin are obvious, and the price range fluctuates. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for chlorinated paraffin is weak and the downstream operating rate is reduced. The price of chlorinated paraffin in Henan and Shandong decreased, and the market in other regions was stable. In late March, chlorinated paraffin increased slightly and then stabilized. The price of raw materials stabilized after the rise, and the manufacturer’s shipment was stable. The operating rate of chlorinated paraffin is reduced and the demand is general. Under the support of cost, the trend of chlorinated paraffin is good. As of March 30, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 6800 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast is about 6700 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 6500 yuan / ton.

International crude oil rose sharply this month, and oil prices hit a new high in nearly 10 years. In terms of raw liquid wax, due to the rise of crude oil, the price of domestic liquid wax is dominant this month. At present, the market atmosphere is good and the manufacturer’s shipment is stable. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine first rose and then fell this month. In the first half of March, the domestic liquid chlorine price rose and operated, and the on-site trading was stable. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, while the market in other regions remained stable for the time being. In the second half of March, affected by the epidemic, the transportation was blocked, and the domestic liquid chlorine price decreased steadily.

3、 Future forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business society believes that at present, the cost support of chlorinated paraffin is weakened, the demand side is weak, and the chlorinated paraffin market operates stably. The epidemic broke out in many places in China, and the transportation was affected to a certain extent. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the short term.

In March, DOP prices fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price rose sharply in the first ten days of March, fell sharply in the middle of March, and rose first and then fell in the second ten days of March. Overall, the DOP price fluctuated and adjusted, and the DOP market fluctuated and rose. As of March 29, the DOP price was 12325 yuan / ton, up 3.57% from 11900 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. In March, the plasticizer price fluctuated and adjusted, and the plasticizer market was strong and stable.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in March

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the overall isooctanol price fluctuated and stabilized. As of March 29, the price of isooctanol was 12966.67 yuan / ton, up 4.57% from 12400 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. In the first and middle of March, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell, and the overall isooctanol market stabilized; Affected by the epidemic, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted slightly, the cost of DOP rose, the driving force of DOP rise was large, and the downward pressure remained.

In March, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell in March. As of March 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8725 yuan / ton, up 8.22% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. In March, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, the cost support increased, and the downward pressure weakened; The price of phthalic anhydride rose, the upward support of DOP increased, and the downward pressure weakened.

Future expectations

DOP data analysts of business agency believe that in the first ten days, due to the easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices rose and fell broadly, isooctanol and phthalic anhydride were adjusted in a wide range, DOP raw material prices were adjusted in a wide range, DOP rose with great momentum, and the downward pressure remains. In the future, the demand for plasticizers is temporarily stable, the upward momentum of DOP is large, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the price shock of DOP will stabilize.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China rose first and then stabilized this week. As of March 25, the average market price in East China was 19775 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 19225 yuan / ton at the end of last week, it increased by 2.86% during the week and 2.20% month on month.

During the week, the TDI market was deadlocked in consolidation and operation. In terms of supply, Gansu Yinguang and Yantai Juli devices had not been restarted, the market spot was tight, and the factory’s attitude of supporting the price continued. At the beginning of the week, the Shanghai factory announced an increase in the guiding price, which boosted the mentality of the field, and the market offer followed up. Then, the downstream follow-up was insufficient, the purchase in the market was weak, coupled with the impact of the epidemic in various places, the logistics and transportation were blocked, the market trading was weak, and the domestic market maintained consolidation. As of the 25th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 19000-19500 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 19500-20100 yuan / ton, mainly based on actual order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation will rise with the market news, and will be sorted down within the week.

The upstream toluene market was sorted upward, and the price continued to rise during the week. As of March 25, the domestic average price of toluene was about 8057 yuan / ton, down 2.75% from last weekend. International crude oil rose continuously, the cost side support was strong, the operating rate of toluene decreased, the spot supply was tight, the operators were reluctant to sell, and the quotation rose. However, due to the impact of the epidemic situation in various regions, the logistics and transportation were blocked, and the transactions in the toluene market were limited, which affected the increase. The consolidation and operation of the future market was the main factor.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business agency, at present, the trading volume of domestic TDI market is weak, and the demand follow-up is insufficient due to the impact of the epidemic. Although the cargo carriers intend to explore upstream, the downstream response is slightly flat. It is expected that the TDI market will continue to be in a stalemate, sorting and operation, and the future market trend will wait and see the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid was 10200 yuan / ton on March 25, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, up 94.29% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The focus of phosphoric acid market has shifted upward this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus rebounded to 37000 due to the news of Guizhou security inspection and production reduction. The cost support is strong, but the increase of phosphoric acid market is not obvious. The increase range of enterprises is about 200-400 yuan / ton. It mainly digests the raw materials at low prices in the early stage, and the market wait-and-see mood is aggravated. However, the offer of enterprises with low quotation has increased. The high-end price is mostly operated stably, and the overall market has increased steadily. As of the weekend, the price of raw materials was about 37000 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid was about 9500-12000 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is 10000-11000 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10500-11000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10500-11000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 9500-12000 yuan / ton.

region ., product ., Specifications ., date ., Price., (yuan / ton)

Sichuan region, phosphoric acid ., 85% industrial grade, March 25, 10000-11000

Jiangsu Province, phosphoric acid ., 85% industrial grade, March 25, 9500-12000

Hubei Province, phosphoric acid ., 85% industrial grade, March 25, 10500-11000

Shandong Province, phosphoric acid ., 85% industrial grade, March 25, 10500-11000

For phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market is running upward as a whole this week. The supply of phosphate rock in the site is tight, and the downstream demand performs well. With the support of supply and demand, the market is strong and upward. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guizhou is around 680-750 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guangxi is around 690-750 yuan / ton.

Yellow phosphorus, the focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market continues to rise this week. The trading atmosphere on the site is general and the supply of goods is tight. The upstream phosphate rock operates at a high level and the supply is tight. Downstream inquiry increases and replenishment is required. On the whole, the market confidence is good, the upstream and downstream support is strong, and the transaction price of new orders is higher. The price of yellow phosphorus is expected to be strong in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of business society, at present, the price of raw materials rebounds, the cost support is strengthened, and the phosphoric acid enterprises rise moderately. However, the buyer and the seller are cautious and wait-and-see attitude remains unchanged. It is expected that there will be upward expectations in the short term, and the price trend of raw materials needs to be paid attention to.

According to the data monitoring of business agency: the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in the first quarter is still in a significantly higher range, with a price increase of about 80% in three months. On March 24, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 480000 yuan / ton, which was 80.45% higher than that at the beginning of the year (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 266000 yuan / ton on January 1). On March 24, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 501000 yuan / ton, which was 77.66% higher than that at the beginning of the year (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 282000 yuan / ton on January 1). As of March 24, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is around 445000 ~ 490000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is around 490000 ~ 510000 yuan / ton.

By observing the changes in the market, after the end of the new year’s Day holiday in January, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise and the quotation continued to set a new high. The shutdown and overhaul of major manufacturers in the market and the gas restriction of natural gas in Qinghai still lead to the low supply and the upward quotation of some enterprises. In mid June, the price of lithium in Wuxi fell sharply, and some enterprises in the market released a little. However, under the circumstances of limited inventory and high downstream demand, it had little impact on the price of lithium carbonate, and the spot price remained high. Downstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises still have some shortage of goods, and ternary manufacturers have sufficient raw materials supported by some long orders.

Then, after the Spring Festival holiday in February, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily, and the historical high price is still updating. Both upstream and downstream of the market are in the state of resumption of production and work, which makes the market demand gradually increase. In late February, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly, the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt in the market were still in a tight state, and the gap of domestic lithium carbonate was still obvious. As the demand for new energy vehicles, energy storage and other markets continues to burst, lithium carbonate, as one of the four cathode materials, is also an indispensable raw material in production and manufacturing, so the price is rising all the way.

In March, the rising trend of lithium carbonate price began to slow down. On the supply side, the lithium salt plant basically resumed normal production, and then maintained a high start-up state. With the rise of temperature in Qinghai, the overall supply of lithium carbonate increased. Imported lithium carbonate may also arrive in Hong Kong around April, when the domestic lithium carbonate supply situation will be effectively alleviated. On the demand side, the downstream lithium iron phosphate plate experienced maintenance and production reduction in varying degrees, which slightly slowed down the procurement demand. In the face of lithium salt products with high prices, the cost surge pressure of downstream enterprises increases, the acceptance of high lithium prices is low, and the upstream and downstream are in a game state. In late March, the procurement of downstream material factories was basically completed this month, and the attitude towards the procurement of high priced lithium salt tended to be cautious. There were few market transactions, and most manufacturers were mainly on the sidelines.

The lithium carbonate analyst of business society believes that at present, with the gradual release of lithium carbonate production, the relationship between market supply and demand has been alleviated. Downstream enterprises generally accept high priced lithium carbonate, and the market game will continue. Affected by the supply and demand pattern and sentiment, it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may stop rising and maintain stability.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7533.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 7400 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 1.77% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison chart of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from November to January

The focus of domestic isopropanol market this week is down. At present, isopropanol manufacturers export more orders. Domestic orders decreased due to the epidemic. Most manufacturers do not offer external prices, mainly for early orders. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 7400 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7700 yuan / ton. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on March 8, while isopropanol in Europe closed stable and rose.

As for raw acetone, as of the press date, the negotiation in East China was 6000 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong was 5850 yuan / ton, the offer in Yanshan surrounding areas was 5850 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China was 6150 yuan / ton. After the sharp decline in the early stage, the intention to continue to decline in the short term under the consideration of cost is weakened. However, under the influence of the current epidemic, it is difficult to improve the overall trading atmosphere, but the sharp correction of crude oil is slightly supported. Under the game, the short-term market may enter a stalemate, and the trading volume needs to be improved. The business agency expects to focus on the adjustment and operation of acetone market range next week.

In terms of raw material propylene, the propylene market has accelerated to decline recently, the mainstream market price has fallen to 8200-8400 yuan / ton, the high international crude oil price has fallen sharply, the downstream polypropylene market is still depressed, the recent domestic rebound in health events has affected the logistics and production in some regions, the on-site trading level has further shrunk, the market situation is bad, and the merchants cut prices and take orders. The business agency predicts that after the sharp rise and fall of propylene market, the market needs to be further sorted out, and the recent consolidation of propylene market is the main thing.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that at present, the domestic factories are mainly export orders, and the domestic isopropanol market demand is general. The price of acetone has been greatly reduced, and the propylene market has accelerated its decline in the near future. Raw materials lack support for isopropanol. The price of isopropanol is expected to be dominated by weak operation in the short term.

This week, the domestic propane market continued to rise, the power was insufficient, and the price fell significantly. Most of the Shandong market fell back below 7000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 7375.75 yuan / ton on March 13 and 6825.75 yuan / ton on March 21. The decline range in the week was 7.46%, up 58.71% compared with the same period last year.

The prices of propane in the mainstream regions in China are as follows from March 21 to March 21:

region ., March 21st

East China, 6600-6800 yuan / ton

North China ., 6500-6850 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6700-6900 yuan / ton

Northeast China ., 6300-6700 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic propane Market as a whole showed a trend of first decline and then rise. The decline in Shandong propane market was greater than the increase, and most of the prices fell back below 7000 yuan / ton. In the early part of the week, the international crude oil price dropped significantly, the cost support was insufficient, the supply of Shandong propane market was sufficient, but the demand was weak, the downstream had limited ability to accept high prices, the market entry enthusiasm was general, the market trading atmosphere was poor, and the price was weak. With the rebound of international crude oil prices over the weekend, the market mentality was favorable, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry improved, and the price rose with it.

Saudi Aramco announced in March 2022 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 895 dollars / ton, an increase of 120 dollars / ton over the previous month; Butane 920 US dollars / ton, up 145 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

On the whole, the current rebound of international crude oil is obviously good for the market mentality, but affected by the epidemic, the control and shipment situation in many regions has been hindered. Although the South and North markets of propane are in an upward trend, the overall downstream demand is still weak, or it may bring some restraint to the rising market. It is expected that the price of propane market may rise in a narrow range in the short term and may weaken in the long term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China rose sharply this week. On March 21, the quotation of sulfur was 3116.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.98% during the week and 41.45% month on month compared with 2783.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week.

The domestic sulfur market continues to operate strongly, the port supply is tight, the low price spot is difficult to find, the high price market is upward, which is good for domestic refineries, regional refineries have no inventory pressure, the downstream sulfuric acid market is supported, the market demand is stable and good, the enterprise shipment is smooth, the supply is not in demand, the operator has a positive attitude and strong upward intention, the quotation rises sharply within the week, and the price of solid and liquid sulfur is generally raised between 250-400 yuan / ton. As of March 18, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

region ., varieties., March 12, March 21, Rise and fall

East China, Sulfur (particle) ,. 2770-2850 yuan / ton ., 3020-3150 yuan / ton ., 250-300

North China ., Sulfur (particle) ,. 2480-2690 yuan / ton ,. 2880-3000 yuan / ton ., 300-400

Shandong Province, Sulfur (particle) ., 2750 yuan / ton, 3150 yuan / ton, three hundred and fifty

Think about the stability of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market. On Monday, the ammonium market continued to rise. The enterprise has sufficient waiting volume and good demand. In addition, due to the impact of cost, the manufacturer’s quotation has been raised and the cost focus has been moving upward. The market of diammonium dichloride was consolidated and operated within the week. The main enterprises issued early orders, the fertilizer for spring ploughing in the downstream increased, the on-site trading was active, and the traders operated with caution. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the market of ammonium phosphate is stable and good.

According to the sulfur analysts of business society, the inventory of domestic sulfur refineries is not under pressure, the support of downstream market is good, the shipment of local refineries is smooth, and the price continues to rise. Driven by the port market, the future sulfur market may continue to run strong, and pay attention to the market follow-up.