According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of October 12, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7600 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on October 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 7733 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.72%.

In November, during the national day, the domestic n-propanol market was calm, the downstream purchase basically ended before the festival, and the market trading was cold during the holiday. After the festival, the domestic n-propanol market was weak as a whole, and the prices of n-propanol factories in Shandong were adjusted slightly downward. Under the guidance of the energy-saving dual control policy in September, the downstream construction decreased, the recovery after the festival was slow, the demand side performance was still weak, and the support given by the demand side was obviously insufficient. The overall weak stable operation of domestic n-propanol after the National Day was dominated, N-propanol dealers adjust prices according to their own inventory range, which has little impact on market fundamentals. At present, as of October 12, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 7000-7300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is around 8300-8500 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream ethylene, after the national day, the overall external ethylene market showed an upward trend. The price rise in the Asian ethylene market was temporarily stable. As of the 11th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1061-1071 / T. European ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 11th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1211-1221 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1128-1136 / ton. Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that the rise of international oil prices and the continuous rebound of oil prices are mainly affected by the recovery of global demand, superimposed on the shortage of electricity and natural gas in major economies, driving the rise of oil prices. Cost support is conducive to the rise of ethylene market, so the data analysts of business society expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

Internationally, on October 11, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $80.52/barrel, an increase of US $1.17 or 1.47%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.65/barrel, an increase of US $1.26 or 1.53%. Oil prices continued to rebound, mainly affected by the recovery of global demand, superimposed on the shortage of power and natural gas in major economies, driving oil prices upward.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the price of upstream ethylene products is high and the cost support is relatively strong, but the downstream demand of domestic n-propanol is general. Therefore, the analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that the domestic n-propanol market will be adjusted and operated in a stable and narrow range in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes of supply and demand news.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 16100 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on October 11, the price of caprolactam increased slightly, up 0.31% compared with the previous trading day. At present, the price of raw material pure benzene is rising, the cost is supported, coupled with tight supply, and the high level of caprolactam is running firmly. Downstream on-demand procurement, PA6 enterprises started at a low level.

Future forecast: in the short term, the high price of caprolactam will run smoothly.

After the festival, viscose staple fiber quotation was chaotic, bullish mood was strong, and some manufacturers closed their plates. According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of October 9, 2021, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 12680 yuan / ton, an increase of 440 yuan / ton, or 3.6%.

Since late September, under the influence of double control, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber manufacturers has decreased significantly, less than 60% before the festival, which may fall to the lowest level since 2013. As the policy direction is not clear, downstream people may have a stock mentality of “buying up but not buying down”, and their willingness to purchase has increased. The load is reduced and the downstream procurement is superimposed, the de stocking process of viscose staple fiber is accelerated, and the spot inventory is in a tight state.

During the national day, the overall load rate of the industry was weak. After the festival, the quotation of viscose staple fiber was chaotic. Some manufacturers reported 14000-14700 yuan / ton of viscose staple fiber (1.2D * 38mm), an increase of about 2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. The quotation was high, or it could boost the market. Some manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being. They are mainly on the sidelines in the future and have a strong bullish mood. Due to the tight supply of some raw materials, there is a local shortage of auxiliary materials, which has become a short board in production, and the willingness of viscose to purchase pulp is under pressure.

In terms of transaction, the upstream and downstream are mainly on the sidelines, with sporadic transactions, light trading atmosphere and no improvement trend.

Downstream cotton yarn Market

Or under the expected impact of the rise of viscose staple fiber, the price of cotton yarn after the festival rises sharply, and the manufacturer may have a certain willingness to support the price. According to the price monitoring of the business society, as of October 9, 2021, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) was 19000 yuan / ton, an increase of 2000 yuan / ton, or 11.7%. There may be stock mood in the downstream of the terminal, and the trading atmosphere may be improving, but the overall market atmosphere is relatively light, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Future forecast

Under the continuous “double control”, the load of the chemical fiber plant may continue to be under pressure. At the same time, due to the tight supply, the price of raw materials and the reduction of operating rate after the festival, some manufacturers raised the price, some manufacturers continued to close the plate, and the price of viscose staple fiber was bullish. Under the situation of double reduction of supply and demand, the mentality of “buy up but not buy down” may ferment in all links or raise prices. Business analysts expect viscose staple fiber prices to pick up in the short term, and we still need to pay attention to policy changes in the future.

Price: according to the data of business agency, the price of 3128b lint on the 8th was 20186 yuan / ton, up 10.4% month on month.

Analysis: on the 8th, the average price of China’s cotton index 3128b was 20150 yuan / ton, up 316 yuan / ton compared with the previous day and 1046 yuan / ton compared with before the national day. After the festival, the new cotton harvest atmosphere continued, and the purchase price of seed cotton continued to rise. Cotton farmers still had good expectations for the later price trend. The purchase price of machine picked cotton in some areas of Xinjiang was reported as 11.6 yuan / kg, gradually approaching the 12 yuan / kg mark. Ice cotton futures continued to rise during the national day, constantly refreshing the highest record in the past decade. On October 7, China Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. announced that the first batch of central reserve cotton in 2021 will be launched from October to November 2021, and will be listed and sold through public bidding in the national cotton trading market from October 8. During the launch period, about 15000 tons will be put on every legal working day in principle, which will be dynamically adjusted according to the market situation. Affected by this news, the increase of ice cotton narrowed on the 7th.

Forecast: the current cotton futures market soared simultaneously, and the cotton yarn rose with it. The market rose all the way, but the overall demand did not improve significantly. The resistance in the downstream was high, and the cotton yarn enterprises were cautious in raising prices. It is expected that the short-term cotton market will maintain a strong trend.

1、 441# silicon price trend

In September, the metal silicon market continued to be in the rising channel, experienced a continuous upward trend, and the metal silicon price stabilized at the end of the month. As of the 30th, the national metal silicon quotation was 60833.33 yuan / ton, down about 350 yuan / ton or 0.48% from last Friday; Rose 139.74% month on month.

2、 Price analysis of this month

In September, the silicon market continued to make rapid progress, with a daily rise of 10000 yuan, up about 35000 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month. In the early stage, silicon manufacturers were optimistic about the future market, and their reluctance to sell was obvious. Then, the news of power consumption reduction and power limitation in Yunnan continued to ferment, which was the main reason for the shock of silicon market. On the 26th of the end of the month, some metal silicon in Yunnan resumed production, and the price decreased steadily.

On September 29, the metal silicon commodity index was 423.43, down 2.03 points from yesterday, down 0.48% from the highest point of 425.46 in the cycle (2021-09-28), and up 515.72% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

3、 Market analysis of this month

Policy side: as the main producing areas of metal silicon, Yunnan and Xinjiang, the problem of power restriction in Yunnan can be traced back to the rainy season, the rain is less than expected, and there are too many high energy consuming industries introduced in Yunnan, which makes the power contradiction more prominent; Due to the excessive energy consumption in the first half of the year, the dual control will be further strict in the second half of the year, and the high energy consumption control is expected to be implemented throughout the year.

Cost side: in September, the coke market rose in the first half of the month and remained stable in the second half of the month. Under the influence of policies such as a certain reduction in output and double control of production restriction, the tight situation of coke supply has improved compared with the previous market, and the price remains high and stable temporarily. In terms of silica, there are few high-quality resources and difficult mining, resulting in a slight shortage of high-quality silica supply.

Demand side: according to the customs data, the metal silicon export in August 2021 totaled 67700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and the metal silicon export from January to August 2021 totaled 533000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.4%. Foreign demand for metal silicon remains high.

The demand for downstream photovoltaic and silicone continued to grow rapidly, and the silicone DMC market opened a sharp rise. As of the 30th, the ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC was around 60500-63300 yuan / ton, and the average price was 62366 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 66% in September.

Ku cunduan: according to the statistics of business society, as of the 24th, the social inventory of metal silicon in Huangpu port, Kunming and Tianjin Port was 56000 tons, up 6000 tons from last week. Under the high price, the trading atmosphere of metal silicon market is poor, the port inventory is more and less, and some warehouses are full.

4、 Future forecast

Now there is a shortage of coal and electricity, and many parts of the country are facing an electricity crisis. Although some silicon enterprises in Yunnan Province have resumed production, the follow-up policy is not clear, and the power outage in other regions is also very serious. It is expected that the shortage of metal silicon supply will not be alleviated for the time being. The high price metal silicon leads to few market transactions, pressure on the downstream, production reduction and shutdown superimposed on the impact of power restriction, and the demand is reduced. Overall, business analysts believe that metal silicon will remain high or rise slightly in the short term.

According to the sample data monitored by the business society, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 20375 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 23833 yuan / ton, with an increase of 16.97% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 36.97%.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in August 2021, there were 59 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 29 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 29.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were formic acid (48.35%), lithium carbonate (30.45%) and hydrochloric acid (29.41%). A total of 34 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 13 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the first three declines were liquid ammonia (- 21.16%), chloroform (- 16.00%) and urea (- 13.43%). The average rise and fall this month was 3.39%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of September 30:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

South China 24200-24500 yuan / ton 23800-24200 yuan / ton

North China and Shandong 24200-24500 yuan / ton 24000-24200 yuan / ton

East China 24200-24500 yuan / ton 24000-24200 yuan / ton

At the beginning of June, the quotations of major manufacturers increased significantly. The hurricane in the United States led to the temporary shutdown of foreign MDI devices, and the relative shortage of supply gave birth to the bullish mood of traders. However, the downstream slightly resisted the high price, the traders’ shipment was not smooth, and the market entered a high consolidation period.

In the middle of the month, since the domestic aggregate MDI market entered a high consolidation period, the whole industry paid attention to the release of guiding prices of major manufacturers. Wanhua’s quotation in the second stage increased month on month, the weekly guidance price of Shanghai kostron increased, and the temporary shutdown of foreign MDI devices caused by the hurricane in the United States continued to give rise to the bullish sentiment of traders.

In the last ten days of the month, some suppliers’ factories stored maintenance plans in the later stage, and the supply of goods became tight; The maintenance of devices in Europe and the Middle East is concentrated from September to October, the foreign supply is tightening, and most customers in downstream industries have low inventory. Under the premise of tight supply, the negotiated transaction price is gradually pushed up, and the increase is obvious near the end of the month.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell. The spot price rose to 9000 yuan / ton from 7780 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and then fell back to the current 7660 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, driven by styrene, the price of pure benzene rose slightly to around 8000 yuan / ton. In the first and middle of January, the pressure on air of pure benzene was prominent, and the price rose sharply.

The market situation of raw aniline rose, and the raw pure benzene rose to a wide range, which strongly supported the cost of aniline. Aniline got rid of the weak pattern and rose.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Shanghai Lianheng phase 1 MDI mother liquor plant was shut down for maintenance from September 23 to October 20. The technical transformation and production expansion plan of Wanhua chemical Ningbo plant was put in place at the beginning of November, which is expected to last about 50 days. Part of the 200000 t / a MDI unit in Dongcao, Japan will be overhauled on September 2, but the rest will be overhauled in mid September for about 45 days. It is expected that the unit will be put into production in late October.

In September, the main driving force of the price rise in the aggregate MDI market was the gradual tightening of supply; Later, as it gradually entered the end of the month, Huntsman’s listing price increased widely in October, stimulating the mentality of the industry. However, Wanhua’s listing price in October was more lower than that of Shanghai factories, the mentality of suppliers was different, and the mentality of the industry was tangled. MDI analysts of business society expect that the domestic MDI market is dominated by high-level consolidation.

First rose and then stabilized, rising 7.34% in the month

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on September 30 was 22713.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared with the average market price of 23326.67 yuan / ton on September 24; Compared with the average market price of 21160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1), an increase of 7.34%.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 44.43%.

Tight supply of power restriction and production reduction

Recently, power rationing has been started up and down the country, and the upstream and downstream of electrolytic aluminum have been affected. On the supply side, since the beginning of the third quarter, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity regions, Southwest China (Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou) and Northwest China (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Yulin) have successively issued power and production restriction policies, which are greatly affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption. At present, due to the problems of double control and power limitation, the annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is reduced by 1.8 million tons, and there is a possibility of production reduction of another 800000 tons.

Previously, electrolytic aluminum production capacity was upgraded from thermal power aluminum in Northwest China and Shandong to green industries in water rich areas such as Guangxi, Yunnan and Sichuan. In the process of large-scale capacity transfer, hydropower is vulnerable to the “wet and dry” cycle of water, which affects the power supply, superimposes the “double control” and power shortage in other regions, and has a significant impact on the in-process and new capacity.

Cancellation of preferential power policies, soaring alumina prices and strong cost support

In terms of cost, the market price of domestic alumina is rising from 2750-2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3600-3800 yuan / ton; In addition, the price of power coal has soared all the way and the preferential power policies have been cancelled. The national development and Reform Commission has issued the notice on improving the step price policy of electrolytic aluminum industry (hereinafter referred to as the notice), which requires to improve the step price classification and price increase standard, prohibit the implementation of preferential price policies for electrolytic aluminum industry and strengthen the collection of price increase electricity charges. The electricity preferential policies were cancelled, the price of alumina soared, other raw and auxiliary materials also maintained an upward trend, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum was strongly supported.

High price superimposed policy power rationing, and the downstream operating rate fell

Overall, the operating rate of aluminum downstream industry chain fell slightly in September. It is mainly based on the power restriction factor and the repeated record high of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the month, and the upstream and downstream game intensifies after the middle of the month.

The operating rate of downstream aluminum profile manufacturers continued to decline. On the one hand, the situation of new orders is poor, the demand for building profiles is lower than expected, and the photovoltaic industry of industrial profiles is slightly bright, but the overall performance of the profile sector was poor in September. On the other hand, the power restriction policy in many places across the country is becoming stricter, and aluminum processing enterprises in key regions such as Jiangsu and Guangdong have been deeply affected.

The operating rate of downstream aluminum plate and strip manufacturers continued to decline. The main problem of limited power is forced to reduce production. Many small and medium-sized aluminum plate and strip plants in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Guangxi and other places are still greatly affected. The overall operating rate of the industry continues to decline, but the downstream demand is still strong, and the space for the decline of operating rate is expected to narrow.

The operating rate of downstream aluminum alloy manufacturers plummeted. Mainly due to the recent sharp rise in silicon and magnesium prices, the processing fee of primary aluminum alloy has also been adjusted with the above, with a daily increase of nearly 1000 yuan. The processing fee was frequently adjusted, the raw material procurement of primary aluminum alloy plant was under pressure, and the operating rate of the industry plummeted.

List of terminal demand data

In terms of real estate, the construction area of new houses from January to August 2021 was 1355020800 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 3.20%. From January to August 2021, the completed area of new houses was 467389500 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 26.00%.

In terms of automobiles, the output of automobiles in August 2021 was 1.725 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18.70%.

List of import and export data

In August 2021, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 490300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23.99%.

Future forecast

Affected by the policies of “carbon neutralization”, “carbon peak” and dual control of energy consumption, the supply side has high uncertainty in the resumption of production in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Shaanxi. On the whole, the new capacity at the supply side basically forms a ceiling, and the probability of violent release of capacity is small. In the short term, under the superposition of high cost factors, the operation trend of high-level stability maintenance is mainly.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (September 22): 20000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business society, on September 29, the phosphoric acid market continued to run strong. Enterprises mostly adjusted their quotations according to their inventory status, but there was no major adjustment before the festival. They basically focused on order shipment. Although the price of raw yellow phosphorus stopped falling and stabilized, the cost support was still strong, so the price of phosphoric acid was still high.

The phosphoric acid market is expected to stabilize before the festival.

Product Name: propylene glycol

Latest price (September 28): 21100 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, on September 28, the domestic propylene glycol market operated stably at a high level. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 21100 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. Compared with the 26th of last weekend, the average price increased by 267 yuan / ton, or 1.28%. On the 28th, the inventory pressure at the supply end of the domestic propylene glycol field was still small, the downstream goods preparation was basically completed, and the transaction of new orders was general. Therefore, it is mainly stable operation in the field in a short time.

Future forecast: I heard that after the National Day holiday, the propylene glycol units of major manufacturers in Shandong and Anhui have maintenance plans, and the supply of propylene glycol after the holiday may continue to be tight. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic propylene glycol market will continue to operate at a high level and stably in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the downstream demand for follow-up.

Trade name: silica

Latest price (September 27): 7200.00 yuan / ton

As of September 27, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-quality white carbon black was 5300.00 yuan / ton. White carbon black operated stably, with strong stability, insignificant price fluctuation, balanced supply and demand, and limited room for rise.

Future forecast: it is expected that the white carbon black market will run smoothly in the short term.