1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic market for neopentyl glycol increased from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10033.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.08%. Weekend prices fell by 3.83% year-on-year. On September 12th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 49.64, an increase of 0.8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 52.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 15.31% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol has risen this week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9000.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.75%. Weekend prices increased by 14.41% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late September, the market trend of new pentanediol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. From September 4th to 11th, the average price of domestic BDO remained at 11642 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.58% month on month and 9.45% year on year. The maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the market supply has increased; However, the increase in demand downstream of the terminal is limited, the pressure on supply and demand increases, the intention of production enterprises to maintain prices continues, the negotiation game intensifies, and the overall market fluctuation is not significant.

On the supply side, the devices have gradually restarted, the industry’s operating rate has significantly increased, and the positive support on the supply side has weakened, exacerbating the cautious wait-and-see sentiment on the market. There are currently no planned changes to other devices. The supply side of BDO is mixed.

Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: With the improvement of calcium carbide arrival, downstream demand is gradually increasing. In September, there have been new and resumed production of calcium carbide furnaces, and there are expectations of a continuous increase in supply. Recently, there has been a significant increase in inventory in the calcium carbide market, and the decline has begun. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market has been experiencing high volatility recently. As of 15:00 on September 11th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2510 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been at a high level, and the cost side of BDO is relatively favorable.

On the demand side, except for the restart of maintenance equipment in the main PTMEG industry and the improvement of new production capacity, the performance of other downstream industries is average. And some downstream industries are in a state of loss, with poor transmission of cost pressure and weak acceptance of high prices. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, although entering the traditional peak season, the increase in demand downstream of the terminal is not significant, and the contradiction between supply and demand is intensifying. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and decline.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 8, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4300 yuan/ton. Compared to September 3, the price progress remained unchanged, and compared to August 1 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4666 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.86%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.3-9.8), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market remained stable and organized. During the week, the overall news on the dimethyl carbonate site was relatively calm, with little change in supply and demand. The overall performance of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was average, and the boost given to the market by the demand side was limited. Some factories had some supply pressure, and the market was generally weak and consolidating. As of September 8th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was referenced around 4000-4300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is light, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious. New orders are mainly negotiated and new orders are sold. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week’s lead market (8.28-9.4) fluctuated upwards, with the average price in the domestic market at 16175 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 16515 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 2.10%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 8 consecutive weeks.

In terms of the futures market, the recent macro trend has been good, with the overall domestic and international environment warming, inflation in the United States falling, expectations for interest rate hikes lowered, and the external market showing a good trend. The domestic market continues to release heavyweight positive news, with economic expectations improving and overall macroeconomic performance improving, driving the metal market up. Shanghai lead fluctuated and rose, with Shanghai lead leading the way up 2.3% on Thursday night, hitting a new high of 16810 yuan/ton in about four years. On Friday morning, Shanghai lead continued its overnight rise and opened higher. As of the close of the 1st, the main 2310 contract of Shanghai lead rose 4.47%, leading the domestic metal market to a four-year high.

In terms of supply and demand, domestic and foreign mining supply is still tight, and primary lead manufacturers have recently resumed production, with supply slightly recovering. Under the dual impact of tight supply of recycled lead raw materials and high raw material prices, prices have slightly increased. In terms of demand, the downstream peak season performance did not meet expectations. Recently, lead prices have risen, cost pressure has increased, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased. Overall, the lead ingot market has been relatively weak in recent times due to fundamental factors, mainly following macro fluctuations. The impact of capital games on the market far exceeds the supply and demand side, and it is expected that the market trend will be weak and volatile in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the recent macro and fund performance.

On September 3rd, the base metal index stood at 1231 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.82% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were 14 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2023 (8.28-9.1), with aluminum (3.65%), dysprosium metal (2.94%), and lead (2.32%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are two products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.68%) and cobalt (-1.65%) being the top two products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.68%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from August 28th to September 1st, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9700 yuan/ton to 9650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.52% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 1.05% in price. The raw material pure benzene market continues to be high, and the cost pressure is on the high side, which has slightly reduced the impact on the operation of production enterprises’ devices. Downstream procurement is more on demand, with a market mentality of organizing and watching.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and the domestic pure benzene market continue to be on the high side. The rise in crude oil has boosted market confidence, and the Shandong refinery’s quotation has steadily risen. Downstream and traders have actively followed suit within the day, and the transaction is still acceptable. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market is undergoing consolidation and operation, with downstream procurement on demand, and the price center is temporarily stable. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, from a cost perspective, the raw material prices are high and the cost pressure will not decrease. The supply and demand game of cyclohexanone commodity volume is predicted by cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society. In the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 31, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21100.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.78% compared to the beginning of the month’s price of 21266.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 20.57% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 31, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24766.67 yuan/ton, which was generally unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 1.78% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In August, the upstream raw material prices of R22 remained stable and weak, while the cost remained low. The overall domestic R22 market prices remained stable and weak, supported by the high demand season for refrigerants in summer, and the overall domestic R22 price fluctuated slightly. At the end of the month, the price of chloroform bottomed out and rebounded, rising by 8.85% within the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded in the later part of the month, rising by 3.52% within the month. The sustained rebound in raw material costs will provide strong support for the R22 market price in September.

In August, the domestic price of trichloroethylene continued to operate at a low level during the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded at the end of August, with an overall increase of 3.52%. The overall cost of upstream raw materials continued to fluctuate and move forward. The overall price of R134a was in a dilemma, and the overall quotation of enterprises remained stable. In August, the domestic price of R134a remained stable and moved forward.

In terms of raw materials, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices bottomed out and rebounded at the end of the month, rising by 3.52% within the month. A slight increase in raw material costs will provide some support for the future price of R134a.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, the cost of raw materials has rebounded comprehensively at the end of August, and with the support of higher costs, it is expected that there will be varying degrees of room for domestic R22 and R134a prices to rise in September.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC increased in August. On August 1st, the average domestic PVC price was 6052 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the average price was 6184 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 2.18%.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC rose in August. The spot price of PVC fluctuated slightly in the first and middle of this month. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is poor, and the market trading is light. Traders have low enthusiasm for purchasing goods, and downstream purchases are made on demand, with caution in actual orders. The futures market prices have risen frequently in the latter half of the year, and the atmosphere in the spot market has also improved. It is difficult to find low-priced goods, and prices continue to rise. However, downstream market demand is average, resisting high prices, and actual order follow-up is slightly insufficient. At present, the confidence in the PVC spot market is still good, with prices mainly remaining stable at the end of the month. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 6150-6350 yuan/ton.

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations. In the short term, the driving force for the oil market to continue to rise is limited. Under the hedging of weak demand expectations and tight supply, the high probability range is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased significantly in August, with the price of calcium carbide rising from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3283.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.30%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 11.26% year-on-year. Looking at the future market: In mid to early September, the calcium carbide market may slightly increase, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials such as blue charcoal have stabilized at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early September, with consolidation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the factory price of calcium carbide increased significantly in August, with strong cost support. Recently, PVC futures prices have been rising frequently, but the market’s acceptance of high priced goods is not good, and the trading situation is average. Downstream procurement is on demand, and actual orders are cautious. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to fluctuate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 29, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol was 7966 yuan/ton. Compared with August 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7733 yuan/ton), the price increased by 233 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.02%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since August (8.1-8.29), the overall market situation of n-propanol in China has shown a fluctuating and upward trend. In early August, the n-propanol market as a whole fell first and then rose. At the beginning of the month, some n-propanol suppliers in Shandong slightly lowered the price of n-propanol based on their own inventory and shipping situation, with a reduction of around 100 yuan/ton. Subsequently, with stable downstream demand support, the n-propanol market began to steadily rise and operate. As of August 15th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong region was around 7100-7600 yuan/ton.

In late August, the supply and demand side of the n-propanol market conducted normally, and the support provided by the supply and demand side to the market was relatively stable. The focus of the n-propanol market in Shandong region continued to move towards the high-end. As of August 29, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region was around 7400-8000 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable, and the market price for n-propanol is around 9000 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus. Up and running, as of August 15th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7100-7600 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol on the market is mild, and there is not much adjustment in the supply and demand side. Downstream demand continues to be just needed to replenish and purchase goods, and supply side inventory is normal. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will be mainly stable with minor fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in the supply and demand side news.

The price of plasticizer DBP increased significantly in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the DBP price was 10450 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.43% compared to the DBP price of 9637.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The price of DBP raw material butanol has significantly increased, the price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, the cost of plasticizer DBP has significantly increased, the demand for plasticizers has rebounded, plasticizer enterprises have started operating at a low level, and the supply of plasticizers has tightened. In August, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol increased in August

 
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 28th was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.20% compared to the price of 9983.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. The planned production of domestic isooctanol units and unexpected vehicle pick-up have led to a tight supply of isooctanol, low inventory of isooctanol, and an upward shift in market focus. In August, the price of isooctanol continued to skyrocket. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DBP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment towards pursuing higher prices has become cautious. With the restart of the isooctanol plant, the supply expectation of the isooctanol market is loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of n-butanol was 9233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.63% compared to the price of n-butanol on August 1st, which was 7916.67 yuan/ton. In August, some regions in China underwent centralized maintenance of n-butanol plants, resulting in tight on-site supply and tight spot circulation, which supported the rise of n-butanol market. Downstream demand was flat, and downstream enterprises had average purchasing enthusiasm. The price of n-butanol rose strongly, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP remained.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price increases of various products in the plastic sector compared to July 1st, from high to low, are PVC (12.48%), PP (wire drawing) (7.28%), and LLDPE (4.89%). Since July, as the plastic industry approaches the traditional peak season, the market has started to heat up, and various products in the plastic sector have seen a rise, with plastic futures rising at the same time. In the two months since July, the plastic industry has been dominated by Lido. On the macro level, inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, and concerns about economic recession have eased. In terms of cost, the seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries have led to a strengthening of international crude oil prices. At the same time, downstream plastic enterprises are gradually increasing their stocking, improving consumption follow-up, and enhancing market momentum. Under the dual support of rebounding consumption and high costs, the prices of plastic futures and three materials have fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that although August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, the upstream and downstream of the plasticizer industry chain are both rising against the trend. In terms of raw materials, in August, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. The price of isooctanol continued to rise sharply, and the downstream demand for phthalic anhydride was weak. The support for benzene raw materials was no longer there. In August, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and fell, and the overall cost of plasticizer product DBP raw materials increased significantly; The downstream plastic futures market has rebounded, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, the supply of plasticizers is tight, and both upstream and downstream prices are rising. The support for the rise of plasticizer DBP is increasing, and DBP prices surged in August. In the future, as the peak season approaches, the demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound. However, in September, upstream and downstream enterprises of plasticizers are expected to resume construction, and the supply of raw materials such as isooctanol, n-butanol, and plasticizer DBP is expected to increase, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand; The supply of isooctanol and n-butanol has increased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol and n-butanol has weakened. The expected high prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol have fallen back; Downstream customers have a low acceptance of high prices. As the supply of plasticizers increases, the downward pressure on plasticizers increases, and it is expected that DBP prices will fall back from high levels in the future.

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to rebound, continuing its upward trend last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon rose 0.82% this week. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy is maintained at 70-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the production of silicon material manufacturers has significantly decreased, mainly due to the impact of power restrictions on their devices, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and a natural impact on production. In addition, although the new production capacity of silicon materials has been gradually released, the increment is limited, and the overall inventory is at a low level; The short-term shortage of silicon materials remains relatively tight, which is also the main reason why silicon material prices can continue to rise. At present, most silicon material companies have signed long-term orders for next month, and some individual orders continue to rise slightly due to tight market supply; Downstream silicon wafers have seen a rebound in demand for silicon materials.

From the demand side, the downstream silicon wafer production rate is normal, which brings stable incremental demand for silicon materials. The recent high temperature power restrictions have little impact on the actual output of silicon wafers. Silicon wafer companies operate at high operating rates, resulting in an increase in silicon wafer inventory, which may hinder prices in the later stages; From the perspective of terminal demand, there is no significant increase in the procurement demand for silicon wafers in the battery and component sectors; And the export sector still faces uncertain prospects. This may result in the price increase of silicon material being difficult to maintain for too long.

Future forecast: In the near future, the silicon material market may still remain relatively rigid and strong, but demand has not improved significantly. Therefore, the tight supply of silicon materials may gradually ease, and there is little possibility of retaliatory rebound in the future. Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that prices are expected to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future, with a slight increase as the main focus.