According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 3, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7500 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7466 yuan/ton), the price increased by 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45%.

Looking back at October, the n-butanol market can be described as a “continuous decline”, with a decline of over 16% in October. In the first week of November, the decline in the n-butanol market has not stopped, and the focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong region continues to decline. On the 1st and 2nd, Shandong large factories successively lowered the price of n-butanol, with a reduction of 100-400 yuan/ton. On the 3rd, the market for n-butanol experienced a decline and then rebounded, with increased trading activity. The market price for n-butanol increased by a narrow range of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of the 3rd, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: On the first few days of the month, the main impact of the trend of the n-butanol market falling first and then rising is the release of the demand side, and the downstream is experiencing phased replenishment. The improvement in demand drives the market to recover and operate.

In terms of supply: Currently, the overall supply level of n-butanol on site is relatively stable, and there is little change in the adjustment of on-site construction compared to the previous period.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and the good downstream demand brings some confidence to the market. The phased stocking provides some positive support to the market. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market may steadily rebound and operate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the price of DOTP was 11270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93% compared to the price of 11610 yuan/ton on October 1. In October, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, while PTA prices rebounded after a sharp drop. The cost support for plasticizer DOTP was insufficient, and the price of DOTP fluctuated and fell in October.

PTA prices rebounded after a sharp drop in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on October 31st was 5915 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.81% compared to the price of 6213.64 yuan/ton on October 1st. The demand for “Silver Ten” is weak, the chemical fiber market is operating weakly, and the market trading atmosphere is average. PTA demand is poor, crude oil prices fluctuate and fall widely, PTA costs decrease, and PTA prices fluctuate and fall in October.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 31st was 12120 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the price of 12020 yuan/ton on October 1st, with an increase of 0.83%. The price of propylene fluctuated and fell, while the cost of isooctanol decreased. Downstream plasticizer companies did not start production enough, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In October, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.

The plastic market fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, during the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu”, the plastic market is soaring. In October, it took on the high position of the “Golden Nine”, but the market for plastic futures products quickly cooled down and failed to continue the upward trend, resulting in a situation where the “Silver Ten” is not silver, and the plastic industry is dominated by bearish sentiment. Downstream plastic enterprises have low willingness to stock up, lagging consumption follow-up, and weak market momentum. Under the influence of declining consumption and cost fluctuations, the plastic market has seen a significant decline in plastic prices. The downstream plastic market is declining, and the demand for plasticizers is insufficient, increasing the downward pressure on plasticizer DOTP.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in October, PTA prices fluctuated and fell, while isooctanol prices first rose and then fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreased; The plastic market has declined, downstream customers have poor purchasing enthusiasm, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP is weak. Overall, due to insufficient cost support and weak demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China fell first and then rose in October, resulting in a weak market situation. On October 31st, the average ex factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 936.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.87% compared to the average ex factory price of 1016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

After the holiday, the sulfur market in East China continued its trend in September, with prices continuously decreasing. The main reason is that the terminal autumn fertilizer use has entered the closing stage, downstream procurement has recovered smoothly, and the shipment of sulfur refineries is poor. In order to alleviate inventory pressure, manufacturers’ quotations have been continuously lowered, and the sulfur market has moved downwards; Starting from the 18th, downstream procurement will follow up on demand. Some refineries have smooth shipments, no inventory pressure, and sulfur prices have slightly increased. However, demand is limited, and the overall increase in sulfur is not significant.

The downstream sulfuric acid market fell significantly in October, with a market price of 306.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 258.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 15.69% within the month. The mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in China operate normally, with stable market supply and average downstream demand. The shipment of sulfuric acid enterprises is not smooth, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers increases. The price of sulfuric acid continues to decrease.

The market of monoammonium phosphate stabilized at a high level in October, with fertilizer usage gradually ending in the autumn and downstream demand weakening. However, monoammonium enterprises issued sufficient orders, manufacturers had a good mentality, and with cost support, the price of monoammonium continued to operate at a high level. As of October 31, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3150.00 yuan/ton, which was 3083.33 yuan/ton compared to the average price on October 1, with a price increase of 2.16%.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from the Business Society believe that the sulfur enterprise’s equipment is operating normally, the supply of goods is stable, manufacturers are actively shipping, and there is currently no inventory pressure. The terminal winter storage market has not yet opened, and downstream customers are following up on demand. Market demand is limited. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the sulfur sulfur market will stagnate and consolidate in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of DOP was 11275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.66% compared to the price of 11583.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. Insufficient support for raw material prices and weak demand remain, with DOP prices fluctuating and falling in October.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 30th was 12120 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the price of 12020 yuan/ton on October 1st, with an increase of 0.83%. The price of propylene fluctuated and fell, while the cost of isooctanol decreased. Downstream plasticizer companies did not start production enough, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In October, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8012.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.03% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on October 1st, which was 8712.50 yuan/ton. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China remains over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, impacting the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. In October, downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, and some phthalic anhydride manufacturers reduced prices to promote sales, resulting in a significant decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

The plastic market fell back in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the plastic industry was in the traditional peak season of the “Golden Nine” period last month, with a high market trend. In October, it took on the high position of the “Golden Nine”, but the market for plastic futures products quickly cooled down and failed to continue the upward trend, resulting in a situation where the “Silver Ten” is not silver, and the plastic industry is dominated by bearish sentiment. Downstream plastic enterprises have low willingness to stock up, lagging consumption follow-up, and weak market momentum. Under the influence of declining consumption and cost fluctuations, the plastic market has seen a significant decline in plastic prices. The downstream plastic market is declining, and the demand for plasticizers is insufficient, increasing the downward pressure on plasticizer DOP.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the raw material isooctanol fluctuates and consolidates, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls, and the cost of plasticizers decreases; The plastic market is declining, downstream customers have poor purchasing enthusiasm, and downstream demand for plasticizers is weak. Overall, the demand for plasticizer DOP is weak due to cost reduction, and there is insufficient support for its positive performance. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and consolidates.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7550.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7420.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.72%. The current price has decreased by 19.78% compared to last year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in October. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for two consecutive months recently, and the market has continued to decline this month. The overall market of raw potassium chloride fluctuates at a low level, with poor cost support, poor downstream operating rates, and light trading volume in the potassium carbonate market, resulting in a continuous decline in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the overall market for potassium chloride in October showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

At present, the circulating supply of potassium chloride in the domestic market is limited, and there is an expectation of a rise in potassium chloride, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 26th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% compared to Monday’s price.

The epichlorohydrin market is mainly stable this week, with some companies adjusting their prices. Recently, the price of raw material glycerol has remained stable, while the market for raw material propylene has declined. Cost support is weak, and there is no pressure on supply side inventory to boost prices. Downstream follow-up is still cautious, with small purchases mainly on demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is average.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on October 25th, the reference price for propylene was 6963.25, a decrease of 4.23% compared to October 1st (7270.75), and recent support for the epichlorohydrin market has weakened.

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on October 25th was 13933.33, a decrease of 8.13% compared to October 1st (15166.67), providing general support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current strong supply side support has boosted the mentality of businesses, but the purchasing mentality on the demand side is cautious. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price has temporarily stabilized this week. The average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market this week was 13075.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.99% over the weekend.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors are temporarily stable this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the market for 1,4-butanediol has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 10685.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.67%, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.25% over the weekend. The market situation of maleic anhydride has slightly declined this week, with the price dropping from 7980.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7790.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.38%. The weekend price has decreased by 0.26% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a bearish impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market situation of tetrahydrofuran, the spandex market price has stabilized at a high level this week. The price of spandex is 34250.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.87% over the weekend. Downstream spandex market prices have stabilized at high levels, and downstream customers are generally proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In late October, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream 1,4-butanediol and maleic anhydride markets have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market has stabilized at a high level, and downstream demand is average. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Acetic anhydride prices continue to decline this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of acetic anhydride was 6100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.79% compared to the price of 6475 yuan/ton on October 13th; The price of acetic anhydride plummeted by 18.56% compared to 7490 yuan/ton on October 1st. The positive support is not there, and the price of acetic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen this week.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of acetic acid was 3575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.30% compared to the price of 3775 yuan/ton on October 13th; The price of acetic acid plummeted by 27.53% compared to 4933.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. Acetic acid enterprises have resumed operations, with accumulated inventory and sufficient supply of acetic acid. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm remains weak. This week, acetic acid prices have fallen, acetic anhydride costs have decreased, and the pressure on acetic anhydride to decline has increased.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that the supply of acetic acid is sufficient and the demand is poor. This week, the price of acetic acid has dropped, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride has increased; Downstream demand for acetic anhydride is weak, with many traders holding a wait-and-see attitude. Customers’ purchasing enthusiasm is poor, and manufacturers’ shipments are hindered, increasing the downward pressure on acetic anhydride; The production of acetic anhydride enterprises has decreased, and the supply of acetic anhydride has decreased. In the future, cost support is not there, and the demand for acetic anhydride is weak and the supply is decreasing. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 17th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6150.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black declined narrowly, with an overall decrease of 1.2%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6100 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with the mainstream price of around 6100 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere was decent, with downstream procurement being the main demand and average demand. The enthusiasm for stocking up was not strong, and manufacturers were mainly willing to offer discounts and take orders. The number of new orders was limited.

Chemical index: On October 16, the chemical index was 926 points, a decrease of 5 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 54.85% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market is stable and weak.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market remained stable in the first half of October. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the mixed benchmark price of PA66 in China was 20166.67 yuan/ton on October 16th, with a 0% increase or decrease compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In the early peak season of PA66, there was an increase in market prices. Overall, after the holiday, the spot prices of various brands fluctuated horizontally. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry has been maintained at over 65% recently, which is basically horizontal compared to the previous period. The production line situation of the enterprise has remained stable with minor changes. The on-site supply of goods has been digested during the peak season, and the pressure on inventory positions is not significant. The support from suppliers is still sufficient. Terminal enterprises still focus on maintaining production, with weak demand for on-site stock preparation, and moderate support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, the domestic market for hexamethylene diamine continues to be weak due to the weakness of the raw material pure benzene. On the market side, the quotation remained stagnant and trading was light. The cost side has poor support for the PA66 market. The current market performance is balanced, and the overall price of PA66 is sideways.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 remained stable in the first half of October. The price trend of raw materials is weak, and the cost support for PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprise is almost horizontal, and the inventory position is low. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 may continue its sideways trend in the short term.