1、 Price data
According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refiners in March was 2806.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 1626.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month. During the month, it fell by 1180 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 42.05%.
The petroleum coke commodity index on March 31 was 126.51, down 1.94 points from yesterday, down 69.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and up 89.13% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In March, the price of refined petroleum coke plummeted by more than 42%. The storage of petroleum coke in domestic ports is at a high level, and port traders are actively selling imported petroleum coke to recover funds. However, recently, imported petroleum coke has gradually arrived and warehoused in ports, making it difficult to change the high storage trend of petroleum coke in ports. The operating rate of delayed coking units in China remains high, with sufficient market supply. Local refineries actively reduce prices and arrange inventory, resulting in poor delivery and investment. Currently, the petroleum coke market is in a situation of oversupply.
In early March, the price of crude oil rose, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, had a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States in mid March, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, as well as the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and a decrease in China’s crude oil imports, which has subsequently dragged down crude oil prices. In the second half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the impact of risks on the banking industry in Europe and the United States weakened, and the easing of supply and demand concerns drove up oil prices.
In 2023, the downstream metal silicon spot market continues to decline, and market transactions are light. In a short period of time, the weak situation of metal silicon is difficult to change. Southwest Silicon Plant suffered a comprehensive loss and increased shutdown and maintenance. Recently, Yunnan issued a notice on the special rectification work plan for safety production, and silicon enterprises in Yunnan have been involved. Currently, due to the continuous downward impact of the petroleum coke market, the calcined coke market continues to decline, with a decline of over 40% since 2023. Aluminum carbon companies are in a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly purchasing on demand, mainly consuming pre inventory, and with limited support for the local refining petroleum coke market. The terminal spot electrolytic aluminum market has recently reduced production in Yunnan-Guizhou region, but the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is still relatively high, with a trend of destocking. On the 31st, the spot price was 18676.67 yuan/ton.
3、 Aftermarket Forecast
The petroleum coke analyst from Business News predicts that the inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports is currently at a high level for a long time, with a stable operation rate of delayed coking units in China, sufficient market supply, limited procurement at the downstream demand end, and excessive market supply. In the near future, the situation of oversupply in the domestic market will continue. Local refining enterprises are actively reducing prices to inventory, and prices continue to plummet in late March. Some local refining enterprises are closing their stocks and waiting. On the 31st, the petroleum coke refining market was mixed, with some easing in the decline. It is expected that the petroleum coke refining market in the near future may be dominated by weakness.