Author Archives: lubon

In July, the domestic urea market first rose and then fell

1、 Price trend

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1812 yuan/ton, which is 0.90% lower than the reference average price of 1829 yuan/ton on July 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This month, the domestic urea market first rose and then fell. In the first half of this month, the domestic urea market prices showed a strong upward trend. Due to the printing price exceeding expectations, the optimistic attitude of the nitrogen fertilizer market has increased, boosting the domestic urea market situation, and urea prices continue to rise. The urea market has seen a rise in trading volume and increased trading volume. In the middle and late of this month, the domestic urea market prices weakened and fell. The market inventory remains high, coupled with the poor trend of the futures market, the urea market is running weakly.
market conditions
As of July 31st, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1740-1820 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1750 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1730-1790 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1780 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from May 5, 2024 to July 21, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic urea cycle is characterized by ups and downs. The maximum increase in domestic urea in July was 1.65% in the week of July 7th, and the maximum decrease was -0.48% in the week of July 14th.
3、 Future forecast
The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent weak and downward trend in the urea market is the main reason. At present, the urea market has sufficient supply and demand has not been fully released, coupled with poor futures market conditions. It is expected that the domestic urea market price will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

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The July futures market is relatively strong, and PVC spot prices are linked upwards

1、 Price trend

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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC market showed a fluctuating upward trend in July, and at the end of the month, the market stopped rising and fell back, with prices still at a high level. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, PVC increased by 6.96% in July.
2、 Market analysis
Basic trend: In the first half of the month, the PVC spot market showed a fluctuating trend, with prices mainly recovering moderately. But as we enter the second half of the month, the futures market has shown strong performance, with crude oil continuing to rise. Under the macroeconomic stimulus and the background of stable supply and demand in the PVC spot market, prices continue to rise and inventory continues to deplete. In the last week of the month, the PVC market returned to calm, with relatively stable supply and demand, and prices mainly falling from high levels.
In terms of inventory, there has been a significant increase in market transactions this month, and companies are rationalizing their inventory. This is mainly due to the increase in downstream market entry and procurement. However, the social inventory is still relatively large, mainly due to manufacturers maintaining a high operating rate, and there is still some supply pressure in the market in the future.
Cost side and demand: Since June, the price performance of the calcium carbide market has been sluggish. In July, the price of calcium carbide is still in a downward cycle, which to some extent limits the strengthening trend of PVC. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society. As of the 31st, the monthly decline of domestic calcium carbide was 3.36%. On the demand side, the increase in downstream operating rates is average. On the one hand, there is inventory pressure, and on the other hand, the resumption of work for hard plastics is slow, with downstream operating rates generally below 50%. In terms of exports, it exhibits strong rigidity. To some extent, it supports the demand for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that fundamentally speaking, there will be little change in supply and demand in August, and both the supply and demand sides will have some improvement, but the high supply of materials will outweigh the increase in demand. On the one hand, the high operating rate of manufacturers will lead to increased production, which in turn will push up inventory. On the other hand, the operating rate of downstream PVC product manufacturers is still sluggish, and the inventory of enterprises is high. Market procurement remains mainly for essential needs, and exports will maintain a positive trend. Taking all factors into consideration, it is expected that PVC prices will maintain a strong trend.

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The market situation of phosphoric acid in July first rose and then fell

1、 Price trend

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6690 yuan/ton on July 30th, and 6690 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China has remained stable this month.
2、 Market analysis
This month, the domestic phosphoric acid market first rose and then fell. In the first half of this month, the market price of phosphoric acid rose. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to an increase in cost support. The phosphoric acid market has stable trading and downstream inquiries have increased. At the end of this month, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has weakened, and cost support has weakened. The trading volume in the phosphoric acid market is light, and downstream demand for replenishment is urgent.
Market situation
As of July 30th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6750 yuan/ton, in Sichuan region it is around 6350-6800 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan region it is around 6600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6350-7450 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the yellow phosphorus market first rose and then fell. In the first half of this month, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market was tight, and manufacturers were reluctant to sell, resulting in an increase in the transaction price of yellow phosphorus in the market. In the second half of this month, the trading atmosphere in the market has weakened, and downstream purchases are cautious, with bearish sentiment prevailing. The transaction price of yellow phosphorus in the market is weak and declining.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has been stable with a weak trend in recent days. The raw material market is not good, the cost support is insufficient, and the wait-and-see attitude in the phosphoric acid market is increasing. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will be weak in the short term, mainly due to consolidation and operation.

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Exploratory small increase in domestic asphalt market

The domestic asphalt market has entered a state of weak supply and demand, with a slight overall increase. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, on July 29th, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong Province was 3700 yuan/ton.

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On the supply side, Shandong Jincheng, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Jinling Petrochemical intermittently switched to residual oil or stopped production during the week. However, the relief on the supply side did not significantly boost the price of asphalt, and domestic asphalt slightly increased with little overall change.
From a downstream perspective, the overall weak performance is the main source of bearish sentiment in the current asphalt market, with low transaction prices. The southern and southeastern coastal areas have been affected by typhoon weather, resulting in continuous rainy weather that seriously hinders road construction progress. The northern region also faces difficulties with rainy weather, while the central and southwestern regions continue to have high temperatures, with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius, affecting the quality of asphalt paving and resulting in overall sluggish terminal procurement.
Overall, Sinopec expects a continued decline in real estate and production compared to the same period, with demand determining future price trends. In the short term, the impact of rainy weather in the south is expected to be weak, and the same is true in North China. The price range in Shandong is between 3550-3720 yuan/ton.

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On July 28th, asphalt prices in Jiangsu Province were lowered

Today, the auction price of Jiangsu Xinhai dropped by 60 yuan/ton to 3605 yuan/ton, and the current transaction range for automobile transportation remains stable at 3670-3750 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the main refineries maintain high load and stable production, with a significant increase in supply within the region; In terms of demand, downstream terminal demand is lukewarm, and the actual transaction atmosphere is average, with priority given to social resources. In addition, due to the impact of the typhoon, the arrival time of the cargo at the port has been delayed, and it is expected that the social warehouse will accumulate inventory in early August.

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This week, the market price of pure benzene has slightly increased (7.21-7.25)

1、 Price trend

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene has risen this week. On Monday, the price of pure benzene was 5878.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday, it was 5918.67 yuan/ton, with a 1.02% increase in price during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: The market price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. Shandong’s refining and shipping are smooth, and the market transaction price center is upward. The prices in the East China market are running relatively strong. Downstream styrene futures prices have risen, benefiting the pure benzene market. Overall, pure benzene has shifted its trading position and month, with more active buying and a positive atmosphere.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On July 24th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $66.03 per barrel, an increase of $0.78 or 1.2%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $69.18 per barrel, an increase of $0.67 or 1.0%.
On July 24th, FOB Korea rose by 7 to 737 US dollars per ton, while CFR China rose by 7 to 751 US dollars per ton. FOB Rotterdam fell 13 to $755 per ton, while FOB US Gulf rose 2 to 284 cents per gallon.
Overall expectation: Pure benzene prices are expected to remain strong and upward in the short term. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

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Weak demand leads to a downturn in the toluene market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and fell from July 14 to July 21, 2025. On July 14th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5560 yuan/ton, and on July 21st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The toluene market has fluctuated downward this cycle, and the focus of negotiations has fallen. The weak trend of crude oil this week has a certain impact on market sentiment. The overall sales performance in Shandong region is poor, with low purchasing enthusiasm in the oil blending and chemical industries, and weak market operation due to demand drag. The market in East China was generally bearish during the week, putting pressure on the market. The demand in southern China is weak, refinery shipments are poor, and the market is operating weakly.

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On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, OPEC+is likely to maintain a significant increase in production in August and September, and the tension in the Middle East has eased compared to before. As a result of this news, the international oil market trend has declined; On the other hand, the market’s concerns about the US tariff negotiations have eased to some extent, and major institutions have a pessimistic view of the demand outlook. The demand side may be difficult to change, and the crude oil market remains weak. As of July 18th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States is $66.05 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $69.28 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of July 21st, East China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5550-5600 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5550 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On July 21st, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7250 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. The price remains unchanged compared to July 14th. As of July 18th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $814-816/ton FOB Korea and $839-841/ton CFR China, an increase of $3/ton from July 11th.
Market forecast: The recent weak trend of crude oil has dragged down market sentiment. Recent market news on the supply side indicates that some devices will be put into operation, and the market expects supply to be relatively loose. From the demand side, the overall demand for downstream oil blending and chemical industries is weak, and the demand side is bearish. Overall, the supply and demand are bearish, and it is expected that the toluene market will operate weakly.

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This week, the aggregated MDI market is exploring gains at a low level (7.14-7.18)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 14th to 18th, the domestic aggregated MDI market saw a slight increase, with an average price of 15016 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15066 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The increase during the period was 0.33%, and the year-on-year decrease was 12.23%. The factory started operating steadily during the week, with suppliers tentatively pushing up prices and low prices converging. However, high price transactions are difficult, and downstream acceptance is still relatively low. This week, the aggregated MDI market saw a slight increase.

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On the supply side, the Wanhua Fujian plant was shut down for maintenance on June 5th, with a duration of about 45 days; Restarting gradually in early July; The 80000 ton/year MDI plant in Dongcao Rui’an will begin maintenance on July 23rd and is expected to last for about 35 days..
In terms of cost, both pure benzene and aniline raw materials have experienced varying degrees of decline recently, with average support from raw materials.
On the demand side, downstream demand is average, trading atmosphere is quiet, intermediaries have inventory pressure, and after a slight increase in prices, inquiries increase and trading volume is average.
In the future forecast, the current aggregated MDI market is at a low level, and with the restart of facilities in Fujian, supply expectations are expected to increase. Under strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate steadily in the short term.

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Low demand, weak stability in formic acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. As of July 14th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and at a low level for the year.

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The upstream caustic soda prices are in a strong operating trend, and the recent demand is still acceptable, supporting the firm operation of caustic soda prices. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating trend in the later stage,
The demand for upstream liquid ammonia in the market has been relatively weak recently, with agricultural and industrial demand mainly following suit. There will be little change in future supply, and the equipment will be on and off, showing a slow increasing trend overall.
The downstream leather and pesticide industries have a relatively stable demand for formic acid, and the sales situation is average.
In summary, there is no clear positive signal for the upstream and demand of formic acid, and it is expected that the formic acid market will operate weakly. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

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Domestic titanium dioxide prices remain stable this week (7.7-7.11)

1、 Price trend

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Taking the sulfuric acid method for producing pyrite type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has remained stable this week. The average market price of titanium dioxide this week is 13660 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
The domestic price of titanium dioxide has remained stable this week. This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market has been weakly stabilizing and consolidating. Upstream sulfuric acid is operating at a high level, with a slight rebound in low-priced ore prices. Enterprise costs are under pressure, inventory pressure is high, and downstream factories are cautious in purchasing goods, resulting in limited new transactions. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 12900-14100 yuan/ton; The price of Ruiti type is around 11900-12300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market price is temporarily stable this week. Downstream market demand is weak, market transactions are light, and there is a strong atmosphere of stalemate and wait-and-see in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of titanium dioxide will be mainly wait-and-see, and the actual transaction price will be subject to negotiation.

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