1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business agency: on November 4, the average price of domestic LNG was 7633.33 yuan / ton, compared with 8276.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 643 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.77%, and an increase of 102.83% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the domestic LNG market rose first and then declined, and then continued to decline, with a decline of about 8% during the week. On Monday, after the rise of feed gas price at the end of October, the domestic liquid price quickly rose to above 8000 yuan / ton, and the increase range of the liquid plant was about 1000 yuan. However, the rise was like a flash in the pan. On Tuesday, it began to fall rapidly, with a daily decrease of about 2% – 3%. Moreover, the liquid plant often adjusted the price twice, spit back most of the increase, and the focus shifted sharply downward. The continuous decline in prices this week was mainly due to the insufficient follow-up of downstream demand. After the sharp jump of the liquid plant, the bottom support was poor, the market trading atmosphere was not high, the liquid plant inventory increased, the sales pressure increased, and continued to reduce prices for shipment. In addition, since the 3rd, Hubei Huanggang liquid plant started sales, the market supply further increased, which was bad for the domestic LNG market. At present, 7200-7750 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 7690-8250 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 7550-8000 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 7630-7750 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 7500-7800 yuan / ton in Hebei and 8300-8700 yuan / ton in Shandong. The inlet gas price is about 6400-8510 yuan / ton. The domestic gas decreases greatly and the imported gas fluctuates.
Downstream products were mixed:
Methanol, the methanol market offer price in southern Shandong is around 3100 yuan / ton, the factory provides cash exchange, Linyi receives the local offer price and delivers it to cash exchange around 3000 yuan / ton, and the logistics offer is not available yet. The atmosphere is average, most of them wait and see. The methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province negotiated to rise to 2860-2950 yuan / ton and sent to spot exchange. The transaction is general and there are different views. The methanol market in central Shandong increased to 2860-2950 yuan / ton through negotiation and sent to cash exchange. The quotation of the local methanol factory in central Shandong stabilized to 3200-3300 yuan / ton, and the factory provided cash exchange. The transaction was poor.
On the 4th, the market price of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to decline, and the prices of some manufacturers decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton. The dealer’s offer has declined, and the downstream procurement takes the goods normally, focusing on just demand. At present, with the increase of the manufacturer’s shipment, there are more sources of goods in the market, and the inventory has increased significantly compared with the previous period. At present, the mainstream market price in this region is 4800-4950 yuan / ton. It is expected that the ammonia price may still decline in the near future.
For urea, the ex factory quotation of domestic urea fell on November 3, which was 20 yuan / ton lower than that on November 1, a decrease of 0.72%, and a year-on-year increase of 54.86%. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have fallen sharply recently, and the cost support has weakened. Urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased and urea supply decreased. In the future, the ex factory price of domestic urea is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2700 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts of business society believe that: at present, there are insufficient positive expectations, insufficient bottom support after the liquid price rises in the early stage, tired downstream mentality, negative market trading atmosphere and pressure on liquid plant shipments. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to reduce expectations in the short term.