According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose in early July, the price of PR nd series rare earth rose, the price of heavy rare earth recovered, and the turning point of the domestic rare earth market has been found. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on July 1 was 494 points, up 6 points from yesterday, and down 50.60% from the peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), Compared with the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015, it has increased by 82.29%（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).
From the rare earth index chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic rare earth prices picked up in early July, and the prices of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have increased to varying degrees recently, and the rare earth market has stopped falling and picked up. In terms of products:
It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and metallic praseodymium are gradually rising. As of July 2, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth is 480000 yuan / ton; The price of metal neodymium is 595000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 487500 yuan / ton; The price of PR nd alloy is 602500 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium is 700000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium oxide is 570000 yuan / ton, and all products have increased in varying degrees. Most of them have risen for 2 working days in a row. The turning point of domestic light rare earth market is now, and the market price is gradually rising.
The domestic rare earth market has stopped falling and recovered, the inflection point of supply and demand structure is coming, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is increasing, and the profit margin of rare earth industry chain is opening up. In the near future, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may increase steadily, the supply rigidity is optimized, and the new energy efficiency standards are implemented. The proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances and NdFeB penetration rate will continue to increase, and the demand side is expected to continue to rise. The sales of new energy vehicles are relatively normal, and the demand for rare earth is high. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are still good. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to reach 2.224 million units, a month on month decrease of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; From January to may, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 10.951 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%. Recently, the downstream demand has increased more than before, and the market price of light rare earth has turned to the rising channel.
It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium in China is getting warmer, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.385 million yuan / ton as of the 2nd; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.38 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.265 million yuan / ton. The domestic price of terbium series rises correspondingly. The domestic price of terbium oxide is 6.525 million yuan / ton, and that of metal terbium is 8.3 million yuan / ton. The transaction of domestic rare earth market has improved, the leading magnetic material factory has continued to expand, the demand for replenishment has made the domestic heavy rare earth market prices warmer and higher, coupled with Myanmar’s ban on exports, the global supply of rare earth is more concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the import source has decreased significantly, the market supply of heavy rare earth on the floor is general, the recent downstream procurement is active, and the market price trend has stopped falling and warmed up.
Recently, the “notice on industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021″ stressed that enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical and chemical industry, building materials and so on should be comprehensively investigated, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product should be carried out, so as to finally achieve full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the “14th five year plan”. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the overall demand of rare earth products is fair, the downstream demand has increased recently, the phenomenon of replenishment is frequent, and the price of domestic rare earth market has risen.
In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled, the national policy will be favorable, and the domestic price of rare earth will rise.
With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, and the continuous demand, coupled with the normal start of domestic rare earth supply, the recent on-site transactions have increased, and the purchase is active. Business analyst Chen Ling expects that the market price of rare earth will maintain a rising trend in the future.