From a cost perspective, the core characteristics of the cost side in June were wide fluctuations in sulfur, steady strengthening of auxiliary materials, and a shift in market pricing from cost anchoring to supply and demand dominance, with cost support. The sulfur price at the port surged to 11600 yuan/ton in the first half of the month, but fell back to 9200 yuan/ton in the second half, with a monthly fluctuation of over 2400 yuan/ton; But the sulfur inventory at the port is at a low level for many years, and the space for deep decline in raw materials is limited. The price of sulfur concentrate has slightly increased, continuing to support the cost of mineral acid. The industry has obvious profit differentiation, with sulfuric acid generally experiencing cost inversion losses, while mineral acid and smelting acid still maintain reasonable profits.
Supply side: Maintenance and production reduction, tight supply of goods
In June, the industry entered the concentrated maintenance season, coupled with the loss reduction of sulfuric acid enterprises, the national sulfuric acid production rate decreased year-on-year, and the overall spot inventory was low. Multiple sets of main equipment in Central and East China have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a temporary supply gap. The production of new capacity has been delayed, and there will be no incremental release in the short term. At the same time, sulfur resources are directed towards the phosphate fertilizer market, causing a shortage of raw materials and limited production for chemical grade acid enterprises. The market supply is rigidly shrinking, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices.
On the demand side: Traditional demand is weakening, and new energy demand is providing support
The structural differentiation of downstream demand is significant. Traditional downstream industries have entered the off-season, with low production and losses in industries such as phosphate fertilizers, titanium dioxide, and caprolactam. They are strongly resistant to high priced sulfuric acid and tend to purchase on demand without stocking up. The only support comes from the new energy track, with high production and sufficient orders in the iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate industries, stable procurement of essential needs, effectively offsetting the decline in traditional demand, and becoming the core support for high acid prices.
In June, the market situation in various regions showed significant differentiation, with an overall pattern of central China leading the rise, southwest supplementing the rise, southern China differentiation, and stability maintenance in eastern and northern China. Central China has centralized maintenance, scarce supply of goods, and strong demand for new energy, resulting in a strong upward trend in prices; The low-priced supply in Southwest China has been cleared, and the demand for phosphate fertilizers and new energy has rebounded, leading to a steady increase in acid prices; The price difference within the South China region has widened, with Guangxi and Fujian being stronger and some parts of Guangdong being weaker; Due to the decrease in sulfur prices, cost support in East China has loosened, while North China has slightly strengthened, with limited overall fluctuations in both regions.
From the perspective of Business Society, the overall forecast for the sulfuric acid market in July is that it will remain strong at a high level, slightly biased towards strength, and regional differentiation will continue, with no significant fluctuations. On the supply side, equipment maintenance continues, new production capacity is temporarily suspended, and market supply remains tight. Low sulfur inventory forms a cost floor, and the market bottom is firmly supported. On the demand side, in the mid to late autumn, fertilizer preparation is launched, and traditional demand is marginally recovering. Coupled with the sustained high demand for new energy sources such as lithium iron phosphate, overall demand support is sufficient. From a phased perspective, the market remained stable and slightly strong in the first half of the year, with some areas experiencing an upward trend of 50-100 yuan/ton in the middle. The pattern of regional price differentiation will continue.

As of May 26th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane is 7416 yuan/ton. Currently, cyclohexane is mainly operating in a narrow range, and weak demand is suppressing its upward trend.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of supply, domestic supporting refining and other facilities have started operating steadily, with an overall capacity of 62% -66%, no centralized maintenance, sufficient spot circulation, synchronized and stable operation of supporting caprolactam facilities, and an increase in the external supply of commodity cyclohexane. The overall market supply is loose, and traders have high inventory levels in the early stage, with a strong willingness to ship and a focus on profit sharing.
In terms of demand, the core downstream demand for cyclohexanone, adipic acid, and nylon slices has been followed up, with no centralized replenishment of inventory, maintaining a small amount of procurement according to demand. The downstream demand for coatings and pharmaceutical solvents is low during the off-season, with low production rates and a slower pace of procurement. Downstream demand is resistant to high priced raw materials, and the wait-and-see sentiment has intensified after the price drop, with very little stock taking.
Market mentality: This week, the market fell first and then stabilized. Traders mainly focused on destocking, while downstream traders watched and waited for lower prices. Trading on the market was light, with most transactions being small orders for immediate needs and no large orders being made.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that with sufficient supply, off-season demand, and no significant rebound in costs, the short-term cyclohexane volatility is weak, and there is insufficient momentum for a significant increase; If pure benzene stops falling and stabilizes, spot prices may maintain a sideways consolidation in the current range of 6000-6900.

This week, the overall trend of the domestic toluene market is weak, with a continuous downward shift in market focus and a quiet trading atmosphere on the exchange. The market is in a weak adjustment trend, and under the game of long and short, the market lacks conditions for upward momentum, resulting in significant pressure on overall operation. This week, the domestic toluene market continued to decline weakly, with the price center continuously shifting downwards and overall market trading being weak.
Cost aspect: Crude oil oscillation weakens, support strength continues to be insufficient
This week, the overall international crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend, with only a few trading days experiencing a slight rebound due to factors such as geopolitical situations. The overall volatility was weak, and the cost support for the toluene market remained weak. The aromatic hydrocarbon futures market fluctuates synchronously with the crude oil trend, mostly running short, making it difficult to boost confidence in the spot market. During the week, crude oil prices fell below key levels multiple times, leading to a decrease in toluene production costs. Petrochemical companies continued to lower their listed prices, further lowering the market’s spot price center. At the end of the month, crude oil closed slightly higher and aromatics were stronger in the evening session, but it could only briefly boost market sentiment and could not reverse the weak cost side pattern, resulting in insufficient overall bottoming out effect. As of June 25th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.92 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September contracts was $75.50 per barrel.
Supply side: Overall abundant supply, slow inventory digestion
Domestic refineries have maintained stable operation, with a relatively small number of toluene unit maintenance enterprises this week. Mainstream production enterprises are running smoothly, and the market circulation of goods continues to be abundant. The main production areas such as East China and South China have sufficient supply of goods, and the flow of goods between regions is smooth, without obvious supply shortages. The pressure of port inventory is controllable, but due to weak demand, the pace of inventory digestion is slow, which has a hidden suppression on prices. The activity of export negotiations is low, the demand in the international market is weak, and the flow of goods through export channels is not smooth, making it difficult to divert domestic trade sources and further exacerbating the situation of loose domestic supply.
Demand side: Weak demand during the off-season and strong wait-and-see sentiment
This week, the industry is in a traditional off-season for consumption, and the overall downstream demand release pace is slow. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the market is mainly focused on purchasing goods according to demand. The operating rate of the terminal industry remains low, with insufficient order volume and weak demand for toluene procurement, making it difficult to form bulk procurement support. After the continuous decline in prices in the early stage, the sentiment of low-level replenishment has slightly increased, but most of them are short-term small order purchases, and the overall purchasing strength is weak, making it difficult to improve the enthusiasm for purchasing in the terminal market. The price difference between pure benzene and toluene remains narrow, and the upward space for toluene is limited, which further suppresses downstream purchasing enthusiasm and maintains a low level of market trading activity.
Market forecast:

In the short term, the toluene market continues to fluctuate at a low level, and there is no obvious rebound in the market. The price is difficult to break away from a weak pattern in the short term. There is still uncertainty in the fluctuation of crude oil on the cost side, and the pressure of abundant supply on the supply side continues. The demand side has weak recovery during the off-season, and there is still a slight possibility of price decline under multiple bearish factors. We will continue to closely monitor the trend of crude oil prices in the future. As the off-season gradually ends, downstream demand is expected to steadily rebound. Coupled with the gradual adjustment of market fundamentals, it is expected that the toluene market will gradually stop falling in the future, and there is a possibility of a moderate recovery trend in the later stage.

The average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1225 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda over the weekend was 1222.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% and a decrease of 3.86% compared to the same period last year. On June 17th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 81.14, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.60% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 3.83% from the lowest point of 78.15 points on January 15, 2026. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the product analysis system, the baking soda market is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1100-1200 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1166 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.
Analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has also been consolidating recently. However, downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, and demand enthusiasm for baking soda is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Cost side: Weakened support for raw materials
The price of raw material isooctanol has stopped rising and fallen
As of June 15th, the price of isooctanol was 8116.67 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 1.88% compared to the price of 7966.67 yuan/ton on June 1st; The price has increased by 21.75% from 6666.67 yuan/ton on February 28th. In terms of cost, the ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the decline in crude oil prices have dragged down downstream propylene prices, resulting in a decrease in costs and a decrease in cost support for isooctanol; In terms of supply and demand, new production capacity will be put into operation successively in 2026, resulting in an oversupply of isooctanol. In addition, the weak demand for isooctanol will increase the downward pressure on isooctanol prices and DOP.
The phthalic anhydride market is weak and consolidating
As of June 15th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8476.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.38% compared to the price of 8683.33 yuan/ton on June 1st. The ceasefire between the United States and Iran has shifted the core logic of the phthalic anhydride market from “geopolitical risk premium” to “fundamental rebalancing”. On the cost side, the expectation of a decline in crude oil prices will dominate market sentiment, and there is room for further downward adjustment in the price of ortho phthalic anhydride, which is likely to follow suit. On the demand side, the traditional off-season combined with weak terminal demand has led to weak demand for phthalic anhydride, increasing downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.
June DOP Market Supply and Demand Analysis
Supply side: Overall oversupply
In June, the capacity utilization rate of the DOP industry was 52%, and the main factories were operating steadily; Compared to the low utilization rate in May, the overall spot supply in the market is not tight. But the procurement demand is too weak, and the contradiction of “oversupply” in the market has not been effectively alleviated.
Demand side: Continued weakness
The sluggish demand side is the core factor restricting the upward trend of the market. End users generally lack confidence in the future market, and their purchasing strategies are extremely cautious, limited to buying “essential small orders” and particularly resistant to high priced sources, resulting in limited inquiries and a light trading atmosphere in the overall market.
Market Overview and Future Expectations
The data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products believes that the price of raw material octanol has shown signs of loosening and falling, which to some extent reduces the cost pressure on DOP. With the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, crude oil prices have fallen, triggering a new price decline. Considering the difficulty of substantial improvement in downstream demand in the short term, it is expected that the DOP market will continue to consolidate weakly, and the focus may further shift slightly downwards. The recovery of industry profits also faces significant uncertainty.

1. Domestic mines and beneficiation plants accelerate resumption of work and production
With the warming of temperatures in northern production areas, the operating load of core production areas is gradually increasing. The safety and environmental protection inspections in the main production areas of the north have slowed down, and the operating rate has increased, directly increasing the supply of spot goods. However, due to the recent mining accident in the south, the scope of production stoppage in southern mines has been extended, and the local spot supply has tightened, resulting in increased reluctance among market traders to sell. In addition, the newly discovered fluorite mines in Sichuan, Gansu and other places have further strengthened the expectation of loose supply in the medium and long term. As a result, there has been little change in the domestic spot supply of fluorite, and the fluorite market has remained low.
2. Normalization of industry regulation makes it difficult to add new mines
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions measures has further compressed the market circulation of goods and suppressed the decline of fluorite raw materials.
3. The import source continues to increase in volume, and the price advantage is significant
The domestic dependence on foreign fluorite has exceeded 30%. After the end of the rainy season in Mongolia, the arrival volume in April and May increased significantly by about 40% month on month, and the import price was about 300-500 yuan/ton lower than that of domestic products. In addition, low arsenic fluorite (≤ 0.0005%) enjoys a zero tariff policy, effectively reducing import costs. The concentrated arrival of Mongolian fluorite at ports in East and North China has had a sustained suppressive effect on domestic market prices.
Demand side: Low core downstream operating rate, difficult to boost prices due to rigid demand
1. The hydrofluoric acid industry is suffering serious losses, and procurement is passively shrinking
The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is only about 50%, and most of them suffer serious losses. They mainly purchase for essential needs and have a strong willingness to lower the price of upstream fluorite, basically maintaining only essential needs procurement. In addition, the mainstream contract price in June fell to 14500-15000 yuan/ton, but the demand follow-up was clearly insufficient, and there were signs of capacity utilization rate shrinking, resulting in a low trend in domestic fluorite prices.
2. The refrigerant operating rate is difficult to exceed 50% due to quota restrictions
Affected by the refrigerant quota system and the relatively flat demand in the home appliance market, the operating rate of core refrigerants such as R22 and R32 is difficult to exceed 50%, which indirectly weakens the demand support for fluorite. Downstream hydrogen fluoride enterprises tend to be cautious in their procurement, adopting a strategy of on-demand replenishment and batch replenishment, only making phased purchases, and suppressing the domestic fluorite market price.
Market forecast: Due to the warming weather in northern production areas and the accelerated resumption of mining production, some manufacturers in the domestic fluorite market have high inventory; In addition, the operating rate of downstream fluorine chemical industry has not changed much, and downstream continues to observe, with weak purchasing sentiment. It is expected that the price of fluorite may remain low and fluctuate.

As of May 29th, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4760 yuan/ton, and the overall market showed a trend of loose supply, weak demand, continuous price weakness, and downward pressure on transactions. This month, the industry equipment resumed production in a concentrated manner, and the start of production remained at a high level, with sufficient market supply of goods; Downstream terminal demand follow-up is weak, there is no centralized replenishment demand, and the mismatch between supply and demand continues to intensify. At the same time, upstream raw material support is weak, and market low price competition is frequent. The price center continues to shift downward, and the overall market is under pressure.
2、 Cause analysis
Market supply: Currently, the DMF market has loose supply, with high equipment load, inventory accumulation, and high operating hours combined with inventory accumulation. The pressure of shipment continues to pressure prices, and regional price wars intensify. The operating rate is high, and the industry operating rate remains above 75%. The early maintenance equipment is concentrated for resumption of production, and the main equipment in Guizhou, Anyang, and other areas are operating normally. Downstream demand is insufficient.
Device operation: In terms of device operation, multiple sets of main production devices that underwent maintenance in April resumed production in May. Core production areas such as Guizhou and Anyang maintained normal operation at full capacity, and the overall operating rate of the industry remained stable at a high level of over 75% for a long time, showing a significant increase compared to the previous month. The production capacity of mainstream domestic production enterprises has been fully released, and the supply of spot goods continues to increase. The overall supply of goods in the market is very sufficient, with no favorable support such as supply shortages or sudden equipment maintenance.
In terms of inventory: In terms of inventory and shipment, due to the dual impact of high production and low demand, the industry’s social inventory and factory inventory continue to accumulate, and most enterprises have high inventory pressure. In order to accelerate inventory clearance and capital recovery, various production enterprises and traders have launched regional price wars, and low-priced goods frequently appear in the market, further exacerbating the loose supply situation on the supply side, and the industry’s shipping pressure continues to rise.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic DMF market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile downward trend in early June, and may gradually stabilize in the second half of the year, with a very low probability of a significant rebound.

Core driving factors
On the raw material side, epoxy propane has stopped falling and rebounded, but the support is still weak
After experiencing a significant decline, the raw material epoxy propane experienced a corrective increase at the end of the month due to the stabilization of upstream propylene and liquid chlorine prices, as well as the impact of some equipment maintenance, which drove up the cost line of propylene glycol and was the direct cause of the rebound in propylene glycol prices. However, the supply and demand of epichlorohydrin are still relatively loose, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. The cost support of propylene glycol is not yet fully stable, making it difficult to sustain a significant price increase.
Supply side: high operating capacity+inventory pressure, limiting rebound space
The operating rate of domestic propylene glycol plants remains above 70%, with sufficient spot supply and ongoing inventory pressure on enterprises. The rebound at the end of the month is more passive in following up with rising raw materials, rather than actively pulling up prices. Some companies plan to conduct maintenance in June, and if the maintenance is implemented, it may temporarily alleviate supply pressure.
Demand side: Weak off-season, insufficient sustainability in replenishing inventory
Downstream industries such as unsaturated resins and coatings are still in the traditional off-season, with insufficient terminal orders. Enterprises tend to purchase on demand, and month end restocking is mostly a short-term behavior, making it difficult to form a sustained demand pull.
Market forecast:
There is still support on the cost side, but the sustained upward momentum is weakening. The expectation of tight supply side still exists, and device fluctuations are the key variable. It is expected that propylene glycol will experience strong fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of epoxy propane prices, downstream inventory replenishment, and whether the expected supply contraction caused by some equipment maintenance has been implemented.

As of May 26th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane is 7383 yuan/ton. Currently, cyclohexane is mainly operating in a narrow range, and weak demand is suppressing its upward trend.
2、 Market analysis
Market wise: In the past week, the domestic cyclohexane market has shown a weak pattern of stability with a slight decline, regional differentiation, and flat transactions. The mainstream average price per week is about 7200 yuan/ton (including tax for high-quality products), the ex factory price in Shandong is 6700-7260 yuan/ton, and the quotation in East China is 7800-8000 yuan/ton. The price difference continues to widen, the cost is weak, the supply is loose, and downstream demand is weak. The overall market is under pressure, and the rebound momentum is insufficient.
In terms of supply, the cyclohexane market has continued to be loose this week, with high operating hours and inventory backlog, intensifying shipping pressure, and fierce regional price competition. The operating rate remains high: the average operating rate of domestic cyclohexane plants is 75% -80%, and there is sufficient spot circulation.
In terms of demand, downstream core industries have weak demand and insufficient terminal orders. Downstream enterprises adhere to the strategy of “low inventory, on-demand procurement”, and market transactions are mainly based on small orders, lacking support from large orders. Caprolactam/adipic acid (core downstream): operating rate remains at 70% -75%, but the terminal nylon and chemical fiber industries are in the off-season, with insufficient orders and stable demand without increment. Only on-demand small order procurement is needed, which has limited driving force for cyclohexane demand. Solvent industry: constrained by environmental policies, some enterprises turn to substitute products, demand continues to shrink, and procurement willingness is low. Other downstream industries: electronics, coatings, etc. have flat demand and no obvious signs of recovery, making it difficult to form effective support. Purchasing mentality: downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, resistance to high prices, batch transactions are rare, and market activity is low. The overall demand side is weak, making it difficult to digest loose supply.
3、 Future forecast
The short-term cyclohexane market is unlikely to change its weak pattern, with prices expected to remain stable with a slight decrease and narrow fluctuations. The mainstream operating range is 7000-7300 yuan/ton, and the high price area in East China may experience a slight rebound.